Assembly Election 2022: Upper Bann

Upper Bann is a constituency comprising towns like Portadown, Lurgan and Banbridge as well as villages like Waringstown, Aghagallon and Derrytrasna.

Currently there are five MLAs…DUP (2), UUP (1), Sinn Féin (1), SDLP (1).

Previous to 2017 when it was a six seat constituency, the sixth seat was held by UUP. At the last “six seat” election, Sinn Féin made a play that three seats could be nationalist. It was on one hand highly optimistic but totally dishonest. Their real aim was a second seat for themselves. The pitch on the doorstep was to tell voters NOT to vote for Dolores Kelly as she was “safe” or tell voters not to vote for her as “Dolores is toast”.

The spreadsheet shows Assembly 2017 and Westminster 2019 results. For the benefit of folks in USA, it is important to understand that Assembly is decided in eighteen constituencies where having a quota of votes is required to win one of five seats. And Westminster is decided on a simple “first past the post” vote. I also include the runners and riders for 2022.

In 2017, with a quota of 8,592 one DUP candidate was elected as over quota and with a combined vote of nearly 17,000 it was inevitable DUP would take two seats. UUP with 10,500 votes and took one seat. JoAnn Dobson lost her seat.

Sinn Féin got over 14,000 votes but the party is not transfer friendly and they failed to pick up surplus votes from winning and eliminated candidates.

The bulk of transfers from the losing candidates helped SDLP to get elected.

In 2019, the Alliance Party were allegedly on a surge, having won one of the three Norn Iron seats for the European Parliament. I am not sure if the “Brexit” election of December 2019 is part of the surge or if it marks the high tide for Alliance.

Of course a Westminster election in Upper Bann is a foregone conclusion. Unionists will rally round the party most likely to win….in this case DUP. Many nationalists wont vote and of course Sinn Féin does not take seats in Westminster.

Leaving aside percentages, we can say this was a facile victory for DUP. In terms of votes actually cast, Sinn Féin lost over 2,000 votes, SDLP lost 500 and UUP lost 4,500 votes.

But Alliance gained 3,500 votes. Probably a significant number of “unionist” were anti-Brexit enough to back Alliance.

At first sight, projections for an Assembly election suggest that DUP would hold their two seats, UUP and Sinn Féin would hold their single seats and Alliance would take the SDLP seat.

The “devil is in the detail” and some drilling down is required. Brexit is a major factor. The full ramifications of the Brexit Agreement and the Norn Iron Protocol had not been realised. Britain would leave EU a month after the Westminster Election. So as well as the “unionist versus nationalist” agenda, there was also a pro and anti Brexit dimension.

In North Belfast, SDLP and Green stood aside for Sinn Féin who won the seat. In South Belfast, Sinn Féin and Green stood aside for SDLP who won the seat. In East Belfast and North Down, SDLP, Green and Sinn Féin stood aside for Alliance to win (it only succeeded in North Down).

Alliance was not part of this defacto pact.

There was no pact in Upper Bann. DUP was obviously a Brexit party. UUP was ambiguous. SDLP, Sinn Féin and Alliance were anti-Brexit. But Alliance did benefit from remainer UUP votes and lukewarm Sinn Féin and SDLP campaign.

I do not think that Alliance increasing their vote at the expense of the other pro-European parties is a long term thing. But the narrative created around an alleged “Alliance surge” is more problematic.

So where are we in 2022? The first consideration is Turnout and Quota. In 2017, the quota needed was over 8,500 votes. Are people more apathetic about an election which might lead to stalemate? Are nationalists motivated to get out and vote by the prospect of a Sinn Féin “First Minister”? Are unionists more motivated to vote DUP to block a SF “First Minister”?

I suspect that the quota in 2022 will be slightly less than the 2017 quota. I am basing this on sheer guesswork but 8,000 votes sounds about right.

Which party…which candidate can reach 8,000?

I cannot see DUP replicating the 2017 and 2019 figures. They are the Norn Iron party most responsible for the Brexit debacle. And for the dreaded Protocol. But is their core vote so stupid that they let the DUP off the hook? The DUP are a religious fundamentalist party. They have no difficulty in believing that GOD blesses his people. In this context, the Dodds family, Nigel and Diane have been blessed. Both have been ministers in the Norn Iron Executive. Diane has been a Member of the European Parliament. And co-opted to replace Carla Lockhart (Westminster MP) in the Assembly. Nigel has been a MP and is now in the “House of Lords”.

Their blessings overflow. While at least one DUP seat is assured, the electorate might want to see the lesser blessed Jonathan Buckley get over the line first.

The Buckley poster was seen in Portadown and the Dodds poster was seen in Lurgan. I have not been in Banbridge but I assume that area has been allocated to Dodds.

The UUP are fielding two candidates. The poster of Doug Beattie (Party Leader) was seen in Portadown and I have also seen his posters in Lurgan. I have not seen posters of running mate Glenn Barr, the current Mayor of the Armagh, Banbridge, Craigavon Council.

Doug Beattie is something of an enigma. A British officer “war hero” who appeals to traditional “Queen and Country” conservative UUP voters. On the other hand, he is presenting himself as a modern unionist who talks about a “union of people”, re-branding unionist outreach to nationalists.

He purports to be realistic about the Protocol problem and will not appear on platforms and parades showing unionist unity against the Protocol. He says such protests raise community tensions.

It seems like a gamble. Putting distance between UUP and the nastier side of unionism/loyalism might well cost votes and transfers from DUP and TUV but might endear him to the “middle ground”.

Will the real Doug Beattie please stand up?

More so……will the real UUP stand up?

I have not seen posters of Beattie’s running mate Glenn Barr. While Beattie did not speak against the Protocol at a protest in Lurgan a few days ago, Barr paraded with his local Orange lodge. This might make him more transfer-friendly to DUP and TUV. But the bottom line for UUP is that they don’t have two quotas in Upper Bann. I would estimate a maximum of 10,000 with Beattie getting the greater share.

Sinn Féin need a perfect storm to get two seats. They will need nationalist votes to stay steady and even get better along with a decline in unionist turn-out. This is a constituency where unionist in-fighting is acrimonious and with big names like Beattie and Dodds. At a rally last week, some of the anti-Protocol protestors drew a noose on a Beattie election poster. To be fair it was condemned by Donaldson and Allister but this is the price DUP and TUV pay when the rhetoric gets out of hand.

The itself was bizarre in itself, not least the appearance of Pastor Rusty Thomas, all the way from Texas.

How this turns off moderate unionists or directs them to UUP and Alliance remains to be seen. Or how much unionists are motivated by a potential Sinn Féin First Minister.

The weakness in Sinn Féin is that they are not transfer-friendly. They need a lot of first preference votes. A second weakness is that both candidates are from the Lurgan end of the constituencybut O’Dowd is originally from near Banbridge O’Dowd already a veteran MLA has a constituency-wide profile. Interestingly some O’Dowd posters have replaced Mackle posters which might indicate Sinn Féin have re-thought the allocation of their canvassing strategy…or maybe the guys who climb the ladders got it wrong.

Sinn Féin have a tendency to balance greybeards like O’Dowd and Mackle with a younger, photogenic candidate. Not this time.

The worst case scenario for Sinn Féin is just one seat but the seat going to Mackle, who is hardly inspirational. This would repeat the 2003 election when O’Dowd was elected instead of the favoured Dara O’Hagan.

SDLP know they have a fight to keep their seat. They probably need 6,200 votes to stay in the count to the end. They need to claw back some Alliance votes. The good news for Dolores Kelly is that she heads a good team of councillors and they had a good 2019 local government election where they outvoted Sinn Féin in some parts of Upper Bann.

There is a feeling that Sinn Féin are lazy and/or complacent. They just take their votes for granted.

Eóin Tennyson faces a big election. Many think he can take a seat for Alliance. He is even hyped as a potential future Leader of the Party. Yes…really. Certainly, based on his 2019 votes, this is a possibility. On the other hand, I think of him as believing the hype around him. He has never really been scrutinised at this level.

Darrin Foster (TUV) is unlikely to get elected but is probably one of the “kingmakers”. It is certainly possible that he could get 2,000 votes and the real question is where do they transfer….DUP most likely.

Lauren Kendall (Green) is also a kingmaker. Difficult to see how they get beyond 1,000 votes and the real question is where do they transfer. Certainly the Greens think of themselves as left of centre (I am not really sure of this)…other parties do green issues better. And hard to see how Greens can turn knitting their own muesli, vegetarianism and cycling into real politics. But more than likely the transfers will go to Alliance, SDLP and Sinn Féin.

Aidan Gribbin (Aontú). I cant see more than 500 votes. But it could be crucial. Aontú is essentially a single issue party…Abortion…and they can draw votes away from SDLP and especially Sinn Féin. While the party might seem like a distraction to the two nationalist parties, it might mean that Aontú at least provides a platform for people who would otherwise abstain. And the second preference votes might actually be more telling than the first preferences.

PREDICTION?

Not going there. All I do is present the facts.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

Decade Of Half Centenaries: Direct Rule

As I have said many times, the Decade of Half Centenaries is much more relevant than the so-called Decade of Centenaries that the Conflict Resolutionists obliged us to commemorate in a futile attempt to tell us that we have a “shared history”.

Just two months after Bloody Sunday …28th March 1972, the British Government abolished Stormont and imposed Direct Rule from Westminster.

Tens of thousands of unionists and loyalists went to the Stormont estate to protest and show support for the deposed unionist government.

I saw hardly any mention of this on Monday…the 50th anniversary.

Direct Rule in 1972 led to fresh elections in 1973 and months of negotiation to set up a power-sharing Executive (UUP, SDLP, Alliance) which lasted less than six months before being deposed by loyalist protests.

Norn Iron was without a government from the summer of 1974 thru to after 1998 Good Friday Agreement.

So….it is ironic that fifty years after those loyalists protested at Direct Rule, the DUP are talking about not participating in government after the elections in just five weeks time.

And we might have…Direct Rule.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

Chris Rock

I had only vaguely heard of Chris Rock before the Oscars incident where Will Smith went on stage and slapped him.

Mr Rock seems to be one of those “roast comedians” like Ricky Gervais who says outrageous things while his targets are supposed o sit there and ¹smile.

I am really surprised at the outrage.Will Smith has made a tearful apology. And there are calls that Will Smith should be stripped of his Oscar.

Maybe I am wrong…tone deaf to the suffering of victim, Chris Rock. But Chris Rock is not so much a comedian as a smartass. There is nothing cutting edge about being an overpaid bully.

Now if Mr Rock was brave, he might try making a joke about a member of Liam Neesons family. Liam Neeson knows how to find Chris Rock. So he does.

Quite possibly I will be nominated for an Oscar. My original Screenplay “Belfast Is Crap…So It Is” will be in a movie theatre near you.

I might have to sit thru Chris Rock taking fun of my wife. Unlike Will Smith and Liam Neeson, I am a wee old man. So I can’t really do much. On the other hand, my wife would go onstage and tear his head off his shoulders.

She is a Clonard girl.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

The Oscars

So “Belfast” was nominated for seven Oscars and one just one…Best Original Screenplay for “Sir” Kenneth Branagh, our very own actor/director/writer “luvvie”.

Being nominated for seven Oscars and winning just one is an anti-climax.

Officially the category is “Best Original Screenplay” but the reality is that this is an Oscar for “”Best Make Up”.

Norn Iron suffers from a near fatal skin condition called Sectarian Hatred. It is treated by applying inordinate amounts of “concealer” to cover the ugly blemishes.

This is how Norn Iron is supposed to work…a glorified theme park…the Titanic, Game of Thrones, Giants Causeway (don’t mention that some of our government ministers say it is only 6,000 years old) and “almost parity of esteem”.

Sir Ken says Belfast is a magnificent city. Well, it is not. He says the people are wonderful. Well…there is my good self. But apart from me…Belfast people are awful.

“Belfast” is a worthy project. Something made from a sense of duty and Branagh’s nostalgic affection. In the long run, it is not very significant.

I may not like Ricky Gervais. But in his excellent series “Extras” where famous actors play exaggerated and uncomplimentary versions of themselves, he highlighted worthy movie projects.

An exaggerated Kate Winslett…playing a Second World War nun helping refugees escape from the Nazis…says she is only involved because this is the kinda movie that gets an Oscar.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Irish Neutrality And…Irish Neutrality

Almost twenty years ago, I was part of a discussion on a History “discussion board” on MySpace.

The subject was Irish Neutrality in the Second World War.

This is often a sore point for Irish people. Not so much for the actual history of war time neutrality but rather for the lazy clichés associated with it. These attitudes include Ireland being secretly pro-Nazi, simply cowards or disloyal to Britain.

My position has always been that Ireland was indeed neutral. So was Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, Norway, Sweden and Luxembourg. So was the United States of America.

My assertion seems at odds with the history books as was pointed out in the discussion. Some of these countries did go to war but only in the case of Europeans when the Nazis invaded. Or in the case of USA after the attack on Pearl Harbour.

To me the position is clear. France and Britain had a Treaty with Poland. They were contractually obliged to declare war on Germany. If this seems altruistic, the recent Victors of World War One had a lot of reason to fear German revenge for the treaty of Versailles. The position that in 1939, this was Democracy facing up to Fascism is undermined by France and Britain dragging their empires into the war with them. So not quite so democratic. If they rushed to defend Poland, they also facilitated the destruction of Czechoslovakia.

In the case of the British Empire /Commonwealth there was the “Dominions” such as Canada, Australia, New Zealand (democracies), South Africa (undemocratic and white ruled by Anglos and Boers) and Ireland.

Despite the changing relationship between Westminster and the Dominions in the 1930s, there was a certain deference to the “mother country”. The kith and kin dynamic was enough to bring Canada, Australia and New Zealand and even South Africa (of more divided loyalties) and a land border with German South West Africa on board.

This was not the case with Ireland which had no deference. The victim of an abusive mother, Ireland had left the “family home”. On independence, it had decided on its own neutral foreign policy.

There should be no surprise that Ireland decided on war-time neutrality. If Britain thought Ireland would forgive and forget six hundred years of History, they misunderstood. Certainly Timing was a factor in British resentment. Only recently Britain had lost use of several Irish ports…the Treaty Ports …as the last conditions of the Anglo-Irish Treaty took effect. The loss of naval bases on the Atlantic coast affected the British and later Allied war effort.

So Ireland was neutral but if invaded by Nazi Germany or the Allies, would have resisted to the best ability of a small nation…like Belgium, Denmark or Norway.

Last night I looked up YouTube. I was surprised to find some British newsreel footage from the early months of the War which were complimentary about Irish intentions, military ability and “fighting spirit”. Patronising of course and in contrast to my own recollection of a newsreel broadcast on “All Our Yesterdays”, (a weekly history series in 1960s which looked at events 25 years previously). Certainly I recall a mocking tone about Irish ingratitude and even the “German style helmets” worn by the Irish Army.

There are of course academic writing about Irish neutrality. I recommend journalist Robert Fisk. The extent to which Irish weather reports assisted the Allies prior to DDay, the assistance from Irish Intelligence and supply lines kept open by the Irish Merchant Navy. When I visit Malin Head in County Donegal, it is always nice to see the large “ÉIRE” markings on the cliffs below.

The Irish Merchant Navy lost 200 seamen to attacks from (mostly) German submarines, not withstanding that the Irish ships were well lit, had “Éire” prominently displayed and flew the Irish flag.

Just how many Irishmen served in the British Army during World War Two. Navy and Air Force figures are excluded but British Army figures are roughly 25,000 from Norn Iron and slightly more say 26,000 from neutral Ireland. (my source here is a recollection from an old edition of “History Ireland” which I no longer have).

A conservative estimate might put the total (Army, Navy, Air Force…and self problems over national identity) figure around 70,000. And Irishmen sailed and died on ships in the British Merchant fleet, from ports like Liverpoolm Southampton and Bristol.

And a lot of Irish people worked in British munitions factories.

And by way of balance I should say there was a short lived IRA bombing campaign in England.

Two questions arise about the seeming balance in north and south figures.

Why did so many “Irish” people volunteer? Why did so many “British” people from Norn Iron NOT volunteer?

People like to assign motives.

The Irish had latent loyalty to Britain. Maybe a sense of adventure. Maybe three square meals. Maybe they were fighting Fascism.

The “Norn Irish” were also volunteers in the only part of the “United Kingdom” that did not have conscription. …well the same reasons probably plus a sense of Duty.

Why no Conscription in the North? Well could it be enforced in part of the “UK” where there were just too many nationalists? Could a lot of British army and police be tied up patrolling the border against official or unofficial incursion?

Or was it a sense of revulsion that too many from “Ulster” had lost their lives in World War One? It is all very well for unionists to parade their annual loyal suffering at war memorials in Ballymoney, Lisburn, Dungannon etc but no point in making a habit of it.

There is also the “reserved occupation” (farming) and “war work” (shipyard) factor.

But was Norn Iron actually in the War?

Well clearly as part of the United Kingdom, it was at war. Some (including some from the Catholic community) rushed to sign up. Others were simply relieved that they did not have to sign up. Many thought it distant. They were of course unaware that German bombers had a longer range than they thought. So did the British military. Belfast was largely unprotected from air raids.

On four horrific nights in April and May 1941, Belfast was attacked. On the first night, 900 civilins lost their lives. And the history of Norn Iron in WW2 is largely defined by those four nights. As the bombs fell, Falls Road Catholics and Shankill Protestants were united in praying and singing hymns in the crypt of Clonard Monastery. Others took to Divis/Black Mountains passing the nights.

My Uncle Jackie, a regular swimmer at Falls Baths was there beside the drained swimming pool when it was filled with mutilated and mangled corpses. He would often talk about it.

The unionist Norn Iron government appealed for help…..to the South.

And the fire engines came north from Dundalk and Dublin. And stayed for the four days. You might say that for four days, Ireland was united in a war effort.

The bottom line here is that sending fire engines north was… technically…the Irish government was not acting in a neutral way. Protesting to the Germans, Taoiseach Eamonn de Valera made it clear that any attack on Belfast and Norn Iron was an attack on Ireland.

And…the Luftwaafe never came back. Did the Nazis quake in their jackboots at the thought of fighting the Irish Army? No of course not…but the thought of the British and later Americans having access to Irish ports was enough for the German High Command to order that Belfast remained untouched for the rest of the war.

Ireland certainly took neutrality seriously. Diplomat Sean Lester was Secretary General of the League of Nations during the War. De Valera notoriously for some visited the German Embassy to sign a book of condolence for Adolf Hitler. Strangely Ireland’s neutrality is held in contempt by many outside Ireland but is it less honourable that the declarations of war on already defeated Germany in 1945..Ecuador, Uruguay, Peru and Chile seem opportunist rather than combatants.

War comes with a price. So does Neutrality.

The Latin American countries who stayed neutral for most of the Second World War had all been admitted to the United Nations by the end of 1945.

But Ireland and Sweden were not admitted into the United Nations until 1955 and 1956 respectively. Finland (who had fought against USSR as well as Nazi Germany) and Austria (nominally at least a German ally) were admitted with Ireland.

If the island of Ireland was joined in a war time effort for four days in 1941, it did not last. Two narratives emerge. Irish co-operation was airbrushed out of the unionist narrative and a kinda “principled” narrative emerged in the Republic of Ireland …that Ireland was somehow unique as being a former colony which was now an independent nation.

Living in Norn Iron, I was more familiar with the unionist narrative as being the acceptable version. The narrative changes after the Good Friday Agreement (1998) when Conflict Resolutionists fell over themselves to convince unionists and nationalists that we had a “shared history” and a “shared future”.

Obviously it is a good thing that historians tease out the nuances. But starting with the premise that History is 50-50 as faux Conflict Resolutionists tell us in order to facilitate a bogus narrative that is for the common good…this is NOT History. This is Mathematics.

In fairness, this self-image as a nation that understood colonisation AND was part of Europe, was valuable. The neutral countries (Ireland, Finland, Sweden, Austria) were always acceptable peacekeepers in the service of the United Nations. And UN peacekeeping has been and remains a fundamental part of the mission of the Irish Defence Forces…In the 1960s in (Belgian) Congo and in Cyprus (as part of the de-colonisation of former empires) or later in Lebanon, Golan Heights, West Africa and the Balkans where a very good friend has served.

Common Market to European Union…Second Phase Neutrality

The original six members of the Common Market (Luxembourg, Netherlands, Belgium, France, Italy and (West Germany) were all members of NATO. Britain, Denmark (members) and Ireland (neutral) joined in 1973. I think this was an awkward time for Ireland as the sole neutral voice in foreign policy etc.

Greece, Spain and Portugal (NATO members) all joined in the 1980s…all recent dictatorships, all fast-tracked to encourage these nations inside western European democracy. I think one neutral voice among twelve NATO members isolated Ireland further.

Austria, Sweden and Finland joined in the 1990s. All neutral countries but by this stage, there was no real rival to NATO.

The great EU expansion of 2004/05 was I think highly problematic. At that stage I would have seen the problem as economic, with Europe effectively becoming a two tier economy. Ten new nations. But Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, Slovenia (to a lesser extent) were all from the “eastern bloc” and not only did they join EU, they also joined NATO. Cyprus and Malta are neutral.

And other former “eastern” bloc nations such as Romania and Bulgaria and Croatia all became dual members.

The events of the last three weeks in Ukraine underscore the fact that while I saw this in purely economic terms, Vladimir Putin saw the new Europe as a military and political problem.

Ukraine…Third Phase Neutrality?

There is a pre-Ukraine world. There is a post-Ukraine world.

Being Irish……and with “Neutrality” part of Irish DNA or simply part of Irish exceptionalism or contrarian …is almost a luxury.

Two weeks ago, the European Parliament held a vote on censuring Russia for the invasion of Ukraine.

Four Irish members of the European Parliament voted against the censure…Chris McManus (Sinn Féin), Mick Wallace (maverick buffoon), Ming Flanagan (another buffoon) and Clare Daly (Look at Me I Am A Socialist.).

Ms Daly comes across as an old “Cold Warrior”.

All cited Irish neutrality but really they and the two Irish MEPs from the Green Party (Grace O’Sullivan and Ciaran Cuffe) did not “read the room”.

So Ukraine. I took the above photograph at the Cork Chamber of Commerce (St Luke’s Cork) last Tuesday. At one level it seems odd to fly the Ireland and Ukraine flags. Not only is it not a very neutral thing to do but rather like the Editor of the Skibbereen Eagle warning in the mid 19th century that his newspaper was “keeping an eye on the Czar of Russia”, it seems like Vladimir Putin would not be overly concerned.

Indeed when I started this blog in August 2011, the title “Keeping An Eye on the Czar of Russia” was intended as a commentary on the self importance of bloggers.

Yet millions of people have an opinion on social media about the current Czar of Russia,

The title of my Blog is almost prophetic.

So Neutrality has evolved. And it will evolve.

“Every Cause But Our Own” (Emily Lawless)

War-battered dogs are we, Fighters in every clime; Fillers of trench and of grave, Mockers bemocked by time.

War-dogs hungry and grey, Gnawing a naked bone, Fighters in every clime. Every cause but our own.

Whether fighting for an English monarch I against Oliver Cromwell at Drogheda . Or for James II against William of Orange at the Boyne, Aughrim and Limerick. r for the French at Fontenoy. Or for Bonnie Prince Charlie at Culloden. Or for Mexico against United States of America at Churubusco. Or under Thomas F Meagher (Union)or Patrick Cleburne (Confederate) in the US Civil War. Or for the British Empire in the Indian Mutiny. Or for the British in First World War…the common factor is that none of this was in specific Irish interest.

The problem with alliances such as NATO, is that inhibits nationhood for the greater “good” of mutual protection and seeming common interest.

But there are nations such as Turkey (a NATO member) for whom it is impossible to have respect. And when British territory (Falklands/Malvinas) was attacked by fascist Argentina, there is at least a debate to be had as to who was right and who was wrong as much as the legalese.

But where Ukraine differs…..not just “European” (a euphenism in many ways for “white”) is that the Irish were told (still told) that they are really British. That our Irishness is a myth. Putin tells the Ukrainians that they are Russian.

Of course small nations cannot play the Great Game of 19th century empires and 21st century power blocs.

Ireland can be motivated by VALUES and for good or bad that is an identity with the European Union. But it cannot include military alliance with NATO. Any military support would have to be on an individual basis.

Earlier this week, on TV, I watch a priest pay for Peace…in Ukraine…and Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Palestine (YES!!!), Cameroon.

When I got my History/Politics degree, the Vice Chancellor at Queens University told the new graduates that we now had the skill set to analyse history and politics. Ukraine deffies all logic. I cannot do it. Look for parallels. Putin tells the Ukrainians that their nation is a myth. They are really Russian. And in the past …and now….the British will say the same about Ireland. So we are not neutral.

And the bombs fall on Kiev and on women and children. And there are refugees. No we not neutral.

I began this overlong piece by noting United States was neutral in the Second World War (until directly attacked at Pearl Harbour). Arms were supplied to Britain of course. And …..effectively United States is still neutral in 2022.

There is war-mongering by “hawks” and also there is “peace mongering”.

As the western politicians wear blue and yellow ribbons and applaud President Zelensky, I strongly suspect the western politicians would like him to surrender to Russia.

It is reasonable to want an end to war. Reasonable to save lives. But the peace deal…….the letsgetalongerist brokered peace……will involve Russia having more territory than it had a month ago. It will involve Ukraine being neutralised.

The West will applaud the statesmanship. Look forward to “normalisation” of relations with the Kremlin. Send in the trade missions. Today’s Sanctions are Tomorrow’s business opportunity.

It is REALPOLITIK.

And on St Patrick’s Day, this is effectively what Irish neutrality has always been. Putting VALUES …our VALUES into an ethical foreign and defence policy and repudiating the evil of REALPOLITIK.

No American boots, British boots, French boots, German boots on the ground in Ukraine? Probably not. But quite possibly neutral Ireland will be called upon to provide UN Peacekeepers.

 Lá Fhéile Pádraig sona duit.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments

Decade of Half Centenaries: Deaths February 1972.

There were 28 Troubles-related deaths in February 1972.

As far as I can make out;

Five British Army were killed by the (Provisional) IRA. Two off-duty members of the Ulster Defence Regiment were also killed by IRA.

Seven members of IRA were killed. One was shot by the British Army. The others died in premature explosions, two in a single incident near Glenavy and four while transporting a bomb in East Belfast.

Six Catholic civilians died. One Tommy McElwaine was shot by a British Army sniper at Ballymurphy. He was known vaguely to me. Two were killed by loyalist gangs. The other three by IRA “in crossfire”.

Another civilian, an Englishman, a Walter Mitty character was shot dead by IRA in South Armagh.

Seven people, a British Parachute Regiment chaplain (Catholic) and six civilian canteen workers were killed by the Official IRA in an explosion at Para Headquarters in Aldershot, England. This was a direct reprisal for Bloody Sunday, which occurred a few weeks earlier.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Journalism In A War Zone

About twenty years ago there was a British sitcom called “Drop The Dead Donkey”. It was set in a Television news room.

It was topical with scenes often written just hours before transmission.

One of the running gags was that the action man war correspondent carried a prop …a child’s teddy bear…which was used to illustrate reports from war zones and weather disasters.

What made “Drop The Dead Donkey” watchable was that a lot of journalists supplied the writers with anecdotes of their own experiences of incidents in newsrooms and from front lines.

Realistically, the Teddy Bear did little to undermine faith in Journalism itself. Obviously many journos reporting on the Norn Iron Troubles just took the British line and reported press office statements as Fact. It was the phone hacking scandal of over a decade ago that nearly destroyed Journalism as something to be admired.

More precisely, it was the Government refusing to implement many Leveson recommendations that undermined public confidence. Why did the Government back down? That is an interesting question but maybe journalists know too much about politicians…..the drunks, the philanderers, the drug takers, the corrupt.

Journalism is about two things…publishing information and withholding information. It is a very effective form of Blackmail.

It is of course almost impossible to watch any news item from a war zone or earthquake or tsunami and not have that Teddy Bear from “Drop the Dead Donkey” in my mind.

Ukraine?

We can see it with our own eyes. The journalists are doing a remarkable job in the most difficult of circumstances. There is no “nuance” to analyse. Ukrainians are brave and in old fashioned terminology of warfare have GOD on their side. The Russians are liars the clichéd barbarians of almost the Dark Ages.

Simplistic? Or just Simple?

One of the interesting things is that western journalists in Ukraine and the Polish border are now invested in this story. As they share underground bunkers with Ukrainians, they have “gone native” and watching TV, we have done the same.

The Russian government has responded to journalists (foreign and domestic) in Russia with censorship and draconian prison sentences for those reporting and publishing accounts that are deemed “anti-Russian”.

And in the West….there are rumblings that the governments are not happy with the reporting of BBC, ITV, Sky News. The constant images of a brave Ukrainian president, the fighting spirit of Ukrainian army and civilians and the images of bombed out buildings and over one million people fleeing to Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Moldova and increasingly the good nature of ordinary people in the west…being generous and hospitable….the images of ordinary people doing SOMETHING is in stark contrast to governments doing NOTHING.

I am being unfair. There are Sanctions but some western countries are dragging their feet and being minimalist.

This is especially true of Britain, where Russian corruption is a major influence in the City of London and Conservative Party itself.

I am not suggesting that every Brexiteer in Britain is a Racist. But just about every Racist is a Brexiteer. When the European Union expanded from 15 members to 28 and brought in Eastern and South East European nations to what was to then “western Europe”, it gave impetus to the campaign to leave Europe.

Frankly in British terms, Sweden, Netherlands and Austria are more acceptable than Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania.

It is now an irony that Priti Patel, the British Home Secretary, notorious for anti-migrant rhetoric is now in a position of appearing to welcome refuges from Ukraine. Karma!

The problem is that BBC, ITV and Sky News are showing images that might be called “human interest”. The photogenic mothers and children being left to the Polish border by husbands and fathers, returning, poorly armed to the front line.

It is a powerful image.

Governments are urging the news outlets to be more conscious of the Big Picture.

A no-fly zone would be a step closer to escalating the War. Poland and Hungary being used as an arms warehouse where Ukrainians drive in and drive out, carrying weaponry is a dangerous game.

The West wants their journalists to manage the expectations of people in the West without actually telling them that the West is totally impotent.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments

Dr Johnson and Boswell…Norn Iron Style

I have always been surprised by the number of times, Mick Fealty quotes Newton Emerson.

But oddly today, I was thinking of James Boswell and his old mucker, Dr Samuel Johnson.

Has Mick Fealty quoted Emerson more times than Boswell quoted Johnson?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

“We Will Do Everything Possible To Assist Ukraine” …Boris Johnson

If the first casualty of war is the Truth, then surely the second casualty is “Words”.

Aside from the fact that Boris Johnson is a committed liar, I wonder if Volodymyr Zelensky is impressed by Boris Johnson’s message that Britain will do everything possible to assist Ukraine.

At first sight “everything possible” is pretty unambiguous but does Johnson mean “EVERYTHING possible” or “everything POSSIBLE”.

If it is “EVERYTHING” then this means boots on the ground and a no-fly zone.

If it means “everything POSSIBLE” then really it means “NOTHING”.

I am not convinced by standing ovations for ambassadors from Ukraine in the United States Congress or in the Westminster Commons. Wearing yellow and blue ribbons is the ultimate in gesture politics.

Of course Politics might be the Art of the Possible but I am not sure how that applies here.

The narrative is that Zelensky, the heavyweight boxers and the ordinary people of Ukraine are very brave and holding out against all the odds. There is also the fact that the Ukrainians are winning the propaganda battle.

But there is also a narrative that Putin expected all this to be over in two or three days.

I get the impression that the “West” also wanted a quick war. Obviously a long drawn out war causes more casualties. But Ukrainian defiance has also surprised Biden, Johnson, Macron and the rest. A long war increases the chances of misteps in Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

However supportive the NATO and European Union APPEAR to be….they are conscious that they are now following public opinion. I saw this on one of those new, fancy telephone kiosks in Mary Street, Dublin last night.

We are now in the position that western governments are following public opinion.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | 7 Comments

Ukraine

First of all, I “stand with Ukraine”.

One of the strange things about the last week is that people see parallels with the Past and other people don’t see any. It is a curious mixed bag.

First off, people tell us that this is unprecedented in modern Europe. I suppose it all depends on how “modern” Europe is perceived.

I am too young to remember the Soviet invasion of Hungary in 1956 (or the British, French and Israeli invasion of Egypt) but certainly the former had a legacy that affected my 1960s childhood. As I delivered Catholic newspapers like The Universe, Irish Catholic and Catholic Herald in West Belfast, one of the great heroes to many was Cardinal Mindszenty, the Hungarian cardinal imprisoned by both Nazis and Communists and freed in 1956 who spent more than a decade in exile in the American Embassy in Budapest.

I do remember 1962, the Cuban Missile Crisis and the building of the Berlin Wall. I have seen news footage of desperate people being shot as they tried to escape from East Berlin to West Berlin.

And as a teenager in 1968, I recall the Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia (sic) .

So there is a history of USSR (and Russia is its successor) imposing its will on its satellites and former satellites.

Czarist Russia, the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation is a continuum. In any form, it is an Empire. An “Evil Empire”? …….well all empires are “evil”. It can be dressed up as Civilisation, Manifest Destiny or the City on the Hill but Exceptionalism is extremely unpleasant.

And as conflicts in Europe go, the implosion of Yugoslavia led to a war involving attrocity, rape and genocide. And of course a refugee situation.

But is the West’s perception of a “refugee crisis” a graduated perception.

For those of us who have seen images of refugees from Sudan, Iraq and Syria, Bosnia-Herzegovina….and latterly Afghanistan, the Media conditions us to accept that refugee status is an occupational hazard of what we patronisingly call the Third World

To me as a father and grandfather, it was impossible to look on children at Kabul airport and not see my children and grandchildren.

Ukraine…we are told…is different. The families arriving into Poland from Ukraine are in Europe. Modern Europe. They dress as we do. They have luggage as we do. They LOOK like us. And somehow this is not supposed to happen to people who look like us.

As my wife reminded me this morning, in August 1969, she was an 11 year old girl and her father put her and her mother and siblings on a bus taking them from the Clonard area in Belfast to the safety of the Irish Aer Corps at Gormanstown, County Meath.

This seems to have been forgotten by both British and Irish media. It seems even my wife is not “people like me”.

How did this happen?

I think that after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the West expected Russia to be different from its predecessors. But the Russian Bear in the 21st century is as much a predator as it was in the 19th century or 20th century. Mikhail Gorbachev was an outlier…..but the Russian Doll…the Babushka Nesting doll has the face of Putin and contains Brezhnev, Kruschev and Stalin.

The simple fact is that Russia is a predatory empire, whether monarchist, communist or a fascist kleptocracy…expansionism comes naturally.

I was in USSR as it then was in 1980 (Olympics in Moscow). Of course I knew of their federation of fifteen republics but did not know how much this was part of the Russian psyche until I saw the Opening ceremony in the Olympic Stadium. Yes, I knew Ukraine and Belarus were members of the United Nations and knew the “western” history of the Baltic republics but would not have been able to name the various “-stans” in the east of USSR.

With their independence and with the collapse of the broader eastern bloc, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and some joining European Union and (from a Russian point of view worse) joining NATO, modern Russia feels diminished.

Another imperialist power with an identity crisis is Britain. The post 1945 fall of its Empire and independence of several nations pushed Britain into finding a new place in the world…the Common Market. But Britain could never accept equality…Britain unable to rule the waves re-positioned itself to waive the rules and craved its imperial past…and found a rather stupid way of doing it…Brexit.

Ukraine…to an extent always a frontier….between Catholics in western Ukraine and Orthodox in eastern Ukraine. In a secular world this is less relevant Ukraine is looking to Brussels more than Rome. Indeed tonight Ukraine applied for EU membership.

This is not supposed to happen in Europe. Strangely I felt the same when I was reading a book in bed on the night of 15th August 1969. The gunshots, the tracer bullets………in Europe!

And there are images that resonate with me. The middle aged lady who walks up to the Russian soldier demanding to know what he is doing there. “Go home” she tells him. And I think that middle aged lady and many more like her were doing the same in Ballymurphy.

Living in fear of death. Children killed. I have seen this before.

The only difference is 24 hour news and social media. Back in the day, we only had dustbin lids to warn the world.

The “West” really has done some U-turns in the last week. Germany risibly supplied helmets last week. This week, the Germans and many NATO (eg Norway) and/or EU (eg Finland) countries are supplying weapons…but cannot actually deliver them into Ukraine itself.

What Ukraine wants most is EU membership. It offers protection of sorts.

What Ukraine also wants is a no-fly zone. NATO can’t agree ….they are committed to “no boots on the ground” and will not directly confront the Russians. Even delivering weapons into Poland for Ukraine to pick up is high risk.

But this is a fast-moving story.

The narrative is that the Ukrainians are putting up fierce resistance to the invader. They are undoubtedly brave. Their President is charismatic. Whether western politicians like it or not, there is a great wave of public opinion that calls for intervention. As the cluster bombs explode in Kyiv…as the body count gets higher, politicians might start listening.

Remember Kuwait….thirty years ago, that was a war about Oil.Or Iraq. The public were unimpressed…weapons of mass destruction they told the western voters. It was a lie…a great big lie. But it is easier to go to war with Saddam Hussein (who had no weapons of mass destruction) than it is to go to war with Vladimir Putin (who has a lot of weapons of mass destruction).

And the Balkans in the 1990s. The “West” was forced into action by a public who did not like the genocide and mass rape on TV screens.

Appeasement.

Was Crimea Putin’s Sudetenland? Ethnic Germans in 1938. Ethnic Russians in 2014.

But Putin went further. Casual assassination of his enemies. Murder in Salisbury, England.

How did he get away with it? …….Money.

The Russian oligarchs own London. Literally. Houses, Cars. The estate agents have big bonuses. So do the salesmen of luxury cars.

Lawyers, Call Girls, Bankers are all feeding off Russian money.

And London is awash with dirty money laundered thru Banks. It has been known for years. Even the British Conservative Party receives Russian money. Somehow the British government has decided to deal with this….in the last seven days.

Sanctions? In some way irrelevant because they take too long to work. But let’s be honest. A Russian victory is priced in. In a week or a month Ukraine will (probably) be defeated and then the “West” can go back to what it does best…make dirty money.

For today’s Sanctions are tomorrow’s investment opportunity.

In a year or so, diplomats will talk about normalising relations, recognise a diminished or puppet regime in Ukraine and photo-ops and state visits to Putin or his successor.

Peace Talks?

No conditions apparently. Just how many Treaties have I read about as a schoolboy…Westphalia (1648), Utrecht (1580), Paris (1783), Vienna (1815), Versailles (1919). Peace prevails at the expense of lands seized and lands annexed.

Any Peace is unlikely to see Russia go back to its recognised boundaries or even the boundaries it alone recognises. Nor is any Peace likely to see Ukrainian rights enhanced.

Conflict Resolutionists? In Norn Iron, we actually have a surplus of conflict resolutionists. It seems easy enough. Just tell the Russians and Ukrainians that in every conflict, there is no right or wrong. Everyone is 50% right and everyone is 50% wrong….not sure Ukraine would see it that way but exporting every conflict resolutionist from Norn Iron to talk nonsense in Kyiv means I wont have to listen to the idiots.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments