Alliance Ask The Questions…But Only To Each Other

I am indebted to “Hoboroad” for the link to the Alliance Party scandal. Basically a sub group of activists asking easy questions of their candidates on radio phone-ins. Many will find it difficult to believe that the Party of Saint Naomi, Blessed Paula and Archangel Stewart would stoop to such a shabby tactic.

The tactic might be shabby but it is the kinda thing that works. If an Alliance big wig is on the radio for an hour, it is agood idea to fill up as much air time as possible with friendly questioners and easy topics.

Obviously the callers dont identify themselves as Alliance Party members and a bad idea to ask a follow up question like “what are we having for dinner tonight….and call at Tesco and bring home a bottle of milk with you”.

In its own way, it is the same kinda scandal as the DUP NOT answering questions.

I am looking forward  (possibly in vain) to the Slugger O’Toole thread on the Alliance Party scandal. No doubt the  “secret” Alliance Facebook group would challenge any idea that this is a scandal….because Alliance dont do scandals.

At least thats one problem I dont have on this Blog.

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Assembly Election 2017: South Down

The key difference between Assembly 2016 and Assembly 2017 is that only five MLAs will be elected from each constituncy. For at least eighteen MLAs and their staff, this election has come four years too early.
The percentage of votes required to get elected…the quota…will be higher but I am not thinking in terms of percentages. Rather I am thinking in terms of votes cast in May last year and the number of votes likely to be cast this year.
Too often …analysts with some justification …focus on the statistics of elections. Arguably this one is different. There might actually be Politics involved.

So ….South Down
May 2016: Quota: 5868
SDLP (2 seats) 12901
Sinn Féin (2 seats) 12766
DUP ( 1 seat) 5035
UUP (1 seat) 3481
Others: TUV 2718, Alliance 2200, Independent (McCallister) 1100, Green 850.

2017 Candidates:
SDLP: Sinead Bradley, Colin McGrath
Both outgoing
Sinn Féin: Chris Hazzard, Sinead Ennis.
Hazzard is outgoing. Sinead Ennis replaces outgoing Caitriona Ruane
DUP: Jim Wells
Outgoing.
UUP: Harold McKee
Outgoing
TUV: Lyle Rea
Alliance: Paddy Brown
Stood in 2016
Tory: Gary Hynds
Independent: Paddy Clarke
Both outgoing.
Green: Hannah George

Likely Turnout.
There are three scenarios.
People will be so disgusted at Stormont itself, that they just dont come out.
They are so disgusted at DUP-Sinn Féin, they will turn out.
DUP and Sinn Féin will play the bogey man card and people do turn out.

My gut feeling is that this election is a little like the 1998 Referendum on the Good Friday Agreement. Unlikely people will vote.
I am guessing at 42,000 votes and a quota of 7,000.

Only ten candidates and all parties trying to play safe but obviously at least one will lose a seat. The quota will be a relatively high threshold.
SDLP will poll around 13,300 which will be close to two quotas. I would expect Sinead Bradley (from the Newry area) to poll higher than Colin McGrath. Colin has Brown and Clarke competing in his Downpatrick base.
Sinn Féin ….12,700 and Hazzard will outpoll Ennis.
The unionists…..effectively last time the vote split four ways. John McCallister, formerly UUP and NI21 stood as an Independent last year so his votes are likely to go mostly to UUP. Id expect UUP to poll 4,700
DUP boosted by a lower profile TUV candidate….5,700
TUV …1,800
Clarke will not poll well but Brown (Alliance) was the surprise last year but I cant see more votes this time ….2,000
The Green candidate is seemingly based in South Belfast….900 votes.
Tory 400

Browne and the Green should mostly transfer to SDLP….1,200 would likely be enough to bring both SDLP candidates thru.
TUV will transfer mostly to DUP …..Wells should make it.
SF should beat UUP for final seat.

SDLP 2. SF 2. DUP 1.

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Fur =Murder

Out and about in South Belfast today. Nice to see these women protesting on Lisburn Road. Pic published with their permission.

image

 

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Assembly Election 2017: Strangford

The key difference between Assembly 2016 and Assembly 2017 is that only five MLAs will be elected from each constituncy. For at least eighteen MLAs and their staff, this election has come four years too early.
The percentage of votes required to get elected…the quota…will be higher but I am not thinking in terms of percentages. Rather I am thinking in terms of votes cast in May last year and the number of votes likely to be cast this year.
Too often …analysts with some justification …focus on the statistics of elections. Arguably this one is different. There might actually be Politics involved.

So ….Strangford

May 2016: Quota: 4605
DUP (3 seats) 14037
UUP (2 seats) 6367
Alliance ( 1 seat) 3500
Others: SDLP 2724, Independent (Menagh) 1840, TUV 1407, Green 925, UKIP 759, Sinn Féin 661, Tory 315, Independent (McCartney) 105

2017 Candidates:
DUP: Simon Hamilton, Michelle McIlveen, Peter Weir
All outgoing but Weir brought in from North Down
Independent: Jonathan Bell
Outgoing but elected as DUP
UUP: Mike Nesbitt, Philip Smith
Both outgoing.
Alliance: Kellie Armstrong
Outgoing
SDLP: Joe Boyle
Stood in 2016
Sinn Féin: Dermot Kennedy
Stood in 2016
TUV: Stephen Cooper
Stood in 2016
Green: Ricky Bamford
Tory: Scott Benton
INdependent: Jimmy Menagh
Stood in 2016 and polled well.

Likely Turnout.
There are three scenarios.
People will be so disgusted at Stormont itself, that they just dont come out.
They are so disgusted at DUP-Sinn Féin, they will turn out.
DUP and Sinn Féin will play the bogey man card and people do turn out.

My gut feeling is that this election is a little like the 1998 Referendum on the Good Friday Agreement. Unlikely people will vote.
I am guessing at 33,000 votes and a quota of 5,500

This is a tricky one with seven outgoing MLAs and a high profile casualty more than likely. Some DUP voters will turn to Bell. All that “Jesus” business plays well in the DUP heartland. So my first thought is that DUP will actually lose votes. I would be surprised if their three candidates get more than 11,500 this time and that puts a seat in jeopardy.
I can see the First Count going:
McIlveen 4,500 Hamilton 4,000 Weir 3,000 (I am assuming Weir has Bells old territory)
Bell 2,500
NEsbitt 5,000 Smith 3,000
Armstrong 3,700
Boyle 3200
The others…
Cooper 1600 Menagh 900 …..adds about 2,000 votes….say 1,500 Bell and 500 DUP.
Kennedy (last year proclaimed next MLA for Strangford by Mairtín OMuilleoir) 1000….500 of which go to Boyle and maybe 200 to Alliance.
Bamford 1000….with 300 going to Boyle and 300 Alliance and the rest of the transferrable vote a mixture.

When the five minor candidates are eliminated.
Bell will move to 4,000
McIlveen 4,700 Hamilton 4,200 Weir 3,100
Nesbitt will be on or around 5,500 but with a small surplus …Smith on 3,300
Armstrong now on 4,400
Boyle now on 4,000
Bell 4,100

Weir eliminated. Mc Ilveen and Hamilton elected with 2,000 votes to spare.
Distribution Smith gets 1,200 now on 4,500
Boyle eliminated.
Elects Armstrong.
Armstrong surplus takes Smith ahead of Bell

Sound plausible?  DUP 2 UUP 2 Alliance 1

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Assembly Election 2017: North Down

The key difference between Assembly 2016 and Assembly 2017 is that only five MLAs will be elected from each constituncy. For at least eighteen MLAs and their staff, this election has come four years too early.
The percentage of votes required to get elected…the quota…will be higher but I am not thinking in terms of percentages. Rather I am thinking in terms of votes cast in May last year and the number of votes likely to be cast this year.
Too often …analysts with some justification …focus on the statistics of elections. Arguably this one is different. There might actually be Politics involved.

So ….North Down
May 2016: Quota: 4605
DUP (3 seats) 13446
Alliance (1 seat) 5400
UUP (1 seat) 4987
Green (1seat) 4109
Others: UKIP 681, Tory 672, TUV 610, SDLP 425, Sinn Féin 307, Labour 177,
Independent (Brian Wilson)1415.

2017 Candidates:
DUP: Alex Easton, Gordon Dunne
Both outgoing. Third outgoing DUP MLA Peter Weir has been moved to Strangford.
UUP: Alan Chambers, William Cudworth.
Chambers is outgoing.
Alliance: Stephen Farry
Outgoing. Two candidates last time.
Green: Steven Agnew.
Outgoing
SDLP: Caoimhe McNeill.
Sinn Féin: Kieran Maxwell..
Tory: Frank Shivers.
Independent: Chris Carter, Gavan Reynolds, Melanie Kennedy,
Likely Turnout.
There are three scenarios.
People will be so disgusted at Stormont itself, that they just dont come out.
They are so disgusted at DUP-Sinn Féin, they will turn out.
DUP and Sinn Féin will play the bogey man card and people do turn out.

My gut feeling is that this election is a little like the 1998 Referendum on the Good Friday Agreement. Unlikely people will vote.
I am guessing at 36,000 valid votes and a quota of around 6,000.
Question 1….will DUP vote go up or down? Well, they have already written off the third seat. North Down is an enigma. A reputation for liberalism, maverick candidates in leafy middle class areas but DUP clean up in the working class areas. I suspect they will slip to around 13,000 votes (even with the benefit of TUV and UKIP not standing this time), enough to bring their two candidates home.
Alliance will be helped by Brian Wilson (ex- Alliance, ex-Green) not standing. So Stephen Farry will improve from to around 6,000, on or near the quota.
Green….probably the same situation where Wilson votes come home to Agnew. But Agnew not likely to reach the quota until the left-leaning votes of SDLP and Sinn Féin become available.
The SDLP candidate Caoimhe McNeill is from my neck of the woods and prominent in student politics.
As usual in North Down, there is a cluster of Independents, the only one of whom I have heard is Chris Carter. No doubt all of the Independents have a story.
Alan Chambers will probably be elected on transfers from his running mate and the Independents.

It looks easy to call.
DUP 2. Alliance 1. UUP 1. Green 1.

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Assembly Election 2017: Lagan Valley

The key difference between Assembly 2016 and Assembly 2017 is that only five MLAs will be elected from each constituncy. For at least eighteen MLAs and their staff, this election has come four years too early.
The percentage of votes required to get elected…the quota…will be higher but I am not thinking in terms of percentages. Rather I am thinking in terms of votes cast in May last year and the number of votes likely to be cast this year.
Too often …analysts with some justification …focus on the statistics of elections. Arguably this one is different. There might actually be Politics involved.

So …Lagan Valley.

May 2016: Quota: 5551
DUP (3 seats) 18327
UUP (2 seats) 8247
Alliance (1 seat) 3707
Others: SDLP 2899, TUV 1291, Green 1118, SF 1045, UKIP 768, Tory 341, Lab 171,Democracy First 124.
Independent (Orr) 817.

2017 Candidates:
DUP: Edwin Poots, Paul Givan, Brenda Hale.
All outgoing.
UUP: Jenny Palmer, Robbie Butler.
Both outgoing.
Alliance: Trevor Lunn
Outgoing.
SDLP: Pat Catney
Sinn Féin: Peter Doran
Green: Daniel Barros O’Neill.
Tory: Matthew Robinson
TUV: Samuel Morrison.
Independent: Jonny Orr, Keith Gray.
Likely Turnout.
There are three scenarios.
People will be so disgusted at Stormont itself, that they just dont come out.
They are so disgusted at DUP-Sinn Féin, they will turn out.
DUP and Sinn Féin will play the bogey man card and people do turn out.

My gut feeling is that this election is a little like the 1998 Referendum on the Good Friday Agreement. Unlikely people will vote.
I am guessing at 40,000 valid votes and a quota of around 6,600.
Question 1….will DUP vote go up or down? This is heartland country but the rivalry is with UUP. Sinn Féin are irrelevant.
I would guess DUP will go down to 15,000. UUP will rise to 10,000.
Alliance….up or down? I would say they will at best stay the same. A slight drop to 3,500. Trevor Lunn will be 71 years old this year. But two Alliance councillors, albeit in Castlereagh have endorsed SDLPs Pat Catney. And Seamus Close, a former Deputy Leader of Alliance has signed Pat’s nomination papers. Former NI21 councillor Johnny McCarthy and Green Party candidate, Conor Quinn are in SDLP ranks.
So Pat Catney has the ability to reach parts other SDLP. people wont reach. So sticking my neck out here, I would say Pat Catney will out-vote Lunn.
Transfers….well with two seats going to DUP and one to UUP, there is still some unionist votes floating around….mostly UUP and TUV but some Tory.
There is also 1,000 nationalist votes available to transfer. And around the same in Green votes. SDLP should pick up around 800 and Alliance about 500 (yes I AM using the back of an envelope.
The fourth seat will go unionist but probably not too many transfers.

The final seat ……well

OK……DUP 2. UUP 2 SDLP 1.

 

 

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Assembly Election 2017: East Belfast

The key difference between Assembly 2016 and Assembly 2017 is that only five MLAs will be elected from each constituncy. For at least eighteen MLAs and their staff, this election has come four years too early.
The percentage of votes required to get elected…the quota…will be higher but I am not thinking in terms of percentages. Rather I am thinking in terms of votes cast in May last year and the number of votes likely to be cast this year.
Too often …analysts with some justification …focus on the statistics of elections. Arguably this one is different. There might actually be Politics involved.

So East Belfast.
May 2016: Quota 5311
DUP (3 seats) 13647
Alliance (2 seats) 10659
UUP (1 seat) 4142
Others: Green 2185, PUP 1772, SF 946, TUV 887, UKIP 631, Lab 517, Tory 471, SDLP 141, Lab (again!) 78,
Independent 1100.

2017 Candidates:
DUP: Robin Newton, Joanne Bunting, David Douglas,
Newton (The Speaker) and Bunting are outgoing and Douglas replaces his father.
Alliance: Naomi Long, Chris Lyttje
Both are outgoing. Alliance had a third runner in 2016.
UUP:
Andy Allen.
Outgoing. Two runners last time.
Green: Georgina Milne.
PUP: John Kyle.
Sinn Féin: Mairead O’Donnell.
TUV: Andrew Girvan.
Tory: Sheila Bodel.
Some Kinda Labour: Courtney Robinson.
SDLP: Seamus de Faoite.
Independent: J McKeag
Likely Turnout.
There are three scenarios.
People will be so disgusted at Stormont itself, that they just dont come out.
They are so disgusted at DUP-Sinn Féin, they will turn out.
DUP and Sinn Féin will play the bogey man card and people do turn out.

My gut feeling is that this election is a little like the 1998 Referendum on the Good Friday Agreement. Unlikely people will vote.
I am guessing at 38,000 valid votes and a quota of around 6,300 plus.
Question 1….will DUP vote go up or down? I dont think that RHI will play well in East Belfast…not a big place for chickens. So I would say DUP vote will go down….12,000 maybe.
Alliance….up or down? Well Greens had targeted a seat here but Ross Brown leaving the local scene and just five seats this time…Id say Alliance will gain some votes. Again 12,000 maybe.
This means that with DUP and Alliance on just about two quotas, they are safe for two seats.
UUP….up or down? I cant see any more than 5,000 and thats still a way off quota. The candidate will need transfers.
TUV will go up in votes. No UKIP this time….up to 2,000 votes there.
PUP again might get 2,000.

My mate Seamus and Courtney Robinson will transfer into the middle ground as will the latest O’Donnell from Short Strand.
The Tory will transfer to mostly UUP.
A lot depends on whether TUV or PUP hold their votes and attract transfers. Who will be eliminated first. If DUP are “balanced” they wont be elected early. Indeed Alliance might have their two home first.
Which DUP people are elected will be determined by Girvin and Kyle.

My prediction. DUP 2: Alliance 2: UUP 1:

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Sometimes It Just Has To Be Said…

As a general rule, “casting up” past misdemeanours of Sinn Féin is pointless. Either it is regarded as “ancient history” by young people or simply constant repetition of soundbites like “Sinn Féin-IRA” lose all meaning.

Our Peace Process required a certain amount of overlooking their Past…to bring them into the mainstream. History will judge if we got it right or if we compromised ourselves and our dignity too much.

It is simple enough. I welcome compromise. I do not like BEING compromised.

So for the most part, Sinn Féin is regarded as a normal political party. And like any politicians…indeed citizens…they have the right to be outraged by the way whistle-blower, Garda Sgt Maurice McCabe was treated.

As the truth unravels, it is obvious that he and his family were treated very badly. I have little time for Taoiseach Enda Kenny and even less time for Minister for Children, Katherine Zappone. It is obvious that questions need to be answered.

So a set piece in Dáil Éireann today and we could certainly expect An Taoiseach to engage in a little deflection. Gerry Adams TD made it easy for him. When Adams gets up on his hind legs to pontificate about anything, he is always on bad ground.

Gerry Adams pontificating about a “whistle-blower” !!!! As An Taoiseach pointed out bluntly Adams and Sinn Féin’s treatment of Mairia Cahill was a disgrace.

Adams and Sinn Féin….total hypocrites.

 

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Sinn Féin: From Che Guevara To Donald Trump

The problem with being very old is that I have seen far too much politics. I cannot be bluffed by a 40 year old member of the Alliance Party, a 30 year old member of Sinn Féin or for that matter a 20 year old member of SDLP.

I can of course be bluffed. But only by a decreasing number of very old people and a growing number of very dead people.

Take “Operation Harvest”. The grandiose title for the failed IRA Border Campaign 1956-1962. I am old enough to remember  it …obviously vaguely. But I will never forget the B Specials standing around the the RUC Barracks at Platers Hill, Coalisland. Nor will I forget the newspaper headlines in late January 1961. A member of the RUC was killed on the day my last grandparent died.

Of course, I would later know some of the men who had taken part in that campaign. Or more likely interned because that campaign never really affected Belfast. During long walks on summer nights, men who had been “involved” were pointed out to me by my father.

The only real legacy from 1956-1962 is the ballad “Sean South from Garryowen”. The IRA decided to “go political” and a lot of members voted with their feet and walked away, mumbling that the leadership were “commies”.

See….this is a strange thing about the “Republican Movement”. It is oddly lacking in a political philosophy other than “Brits Out”, which is a very noble sentiment.

Of course a few years after walking away from the “Republican Movement”, the anti-Commies were back in charge as the Provisional IRA. The Provos routinely recruited  teenagers in West Belfast, promoting their anti-Commie credentials. The joke at the time was that the Provos went to Mass once a week and the Stickies (“Officials”) went  to Mass once a month.

Of course by the late 1970s, the Provos adopted a leftist philosophy. But I dont think it was ever more than lip-service. The Provos needed the respectability of “left wing” international revolution….whether it was”comrades” in the PLO or ETTA or whatever….just never enough to scare off wealthy American donors.

image

So….I dont take all that stuff down at the International Wall all that seriously….murals PLO, ETTA…not to mention Frederick Douglass, Leonard Peltier and Nelson Mandela.
I is all part of a narrative constructed for Sinn Féin, rather than any accurate portrayal.
After all John Mitchel, with that monument in Newry was a supporter of slavery in USA and two sons died for the Confederacy. Of course some Republicans will claim that there is no comparison between 1861 and 2017. Indeed…but during his stay in United States, Thomas J Clarke was not overly fond of black people. Again no comparison …people might say.
But Republicans do like to create or rediscover a narrative. The emphasis recently on Winnie Carney is a case in point.
And while we all like a good chorus of Spanish Civil War song “Viva La Quinta Brigada”, there are oddly few ballads that commemorate the IRA bombing campaign in England during the Second World War.
and then…Sean South…and then the “Marxist IRA”.
then…the Provos
then the Marxist Provos.
To be honest, I have three Che Guevara Tshirts. It is mostly a fashion statement or maybe some kinda statement about myself…that I am a very unlikely member of the 1960s Counter-Culture. It is always the quiet ones.
And likewise Sinn Féin are making a fashion statement with PLO badges.
It is a pattern with Sinn Féin
Their commitment to the Irish language does not extend beyond a cupla focal to satisfy their base.
Their commitment to Gaelic sport does not extend beyond wearing an Antrim track suit in a Falls Road bar.
Their commitment to revolutionary socialism does not extend beyond a Che Guevara Tshirt.

Only the young can be duped.
So…Martin McGuinness promising a “warm welcome” to Donald Trump does not surprise me. Martin is much the same age as I am.
Alas Michelle O’Neill, considerably younger than me says it is “inappropriate”
And Gerry Adams, even older than me says he will go to the White House for St Patrick’s Day…”if invited”.

Can anybody be really surprised?
It is just that Sinn Féin are no longer in fashion with their Che Guevara Tshirts. In a few months, they will be selling Donald Trump baseball hats in Sinn Féin bookshops.

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If William Caxton Had Never Invented The Internet…

If William Caxton had never invented the Internet (or the Printing Press as we used to call it), things would have been so much easier. There would be no Fake News such as a Blogger like me saying that William Caxton invented the Printing Press. Much more accurate to say that Printing was invented on mainland Europe and Caxton introduced it to England.

When I first opened a History Text Book in September 1963, it was I believe called “The Age of Discovery” and over the next five years we had titles like the “Age of Reason”. It was five years from 1485 to 1945.

It was all there…in a Catholic grammar school, two books ran alongside each other. An accepted neutral version with accepted sub sections on Ireland at the same time. The second book highlighted Ireland and gave us the non-English version.

So Bosworth Field in 1485 with walk-on parts for Silken Thomas to Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 with walk-on parts for De Valera.

William Caxton and his Printing Press had a paragraph all to himself. He (and his German counterparts) published books and people read them. Information for the masses….and Fake News for the masses.

The monopoly on written books was of course controlled by the Fathers of the Chapel….the monks in their monasteries and another complaint was the use of everyday language, rather than Latin. The monasteries were (what we now call) the mainstream media.

NEwspapers like to think of themselves as sacred. In monastic times, the chief illustrators were the Fathers of the Chapel. It is I believe a term still used in journalistic and printing circles. Fake News? Well am I right in saying that Fleet Street printers spent their nights signing in and out under such unlikely names as Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck.

Can REAL News be produced by FAKE printers?

I do not really have much time for a sneering attitude to the Mainstream Media. Certainly it is flawed. But I am bemused by the space afforded to the Huffington Post, The Hill, and a list of online “news” organisations.

I blame William Caxton and of course the Baghdad Blogger. He was the first and somehow we were told that we were all “citizen journalists”. For nearly two decades we have been told that the Internet would inform us and make us more discerning voters.

The Internet has not made us smart. It has made us stupid.

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