Stormont….Not The End?

Confused?  You will be.

So the great Adjourn or Not Adjourn.

So the DUP voted to Adjourn….and Sinn Féin, UUP and SDLP voted No. So….according to Robinson the whole sham would collapse because the DUP Ministers would resign. But Robbo back-tracked or so it seems. They did resign but Robbo stood aside and has placed Arlene Foster as Acting First Minister with the jibe that he couldnt trust the “nationalists and republicans as they might do something detrimental to the people of Norn Iron”.

By any standards thats an insult. The nationalists and republicans are as much people of Norn Iron as anyone else. We are not children of a lesser GOD.

So we have the bizarre situation that the Executive now comprises Arlene Foster of DUP presiding as First Minister with Martin McGuinness over an Executive of three Sinn Féin members, two Alliance and one SDLP. It is totally dysfunctional.

Talks will begin on Monday to find a way out of the mess. Or just as likely they wont take place. There is no guarantee that all parties will show up and there is no agenda.

It is openly stated (threatened) that it could take another decade before a new Agreement is found…or maybe the Assembly election scheduled for May 2016 will be brought forward. Nobody knows. Only SDLP  seem committed to the Good Friday Agreement but increasingly it looks like it is terminally ill and life support could be turned off.

Probably too soon declare the Good Friday Agreement as healthy as Monty Python’s Norewegian Blue parrot…but SDLP look increasingly desperate to save it.

Meanwhile the senior “republicans” arrested yesterday have all been released.

The Norn Iron public are split between boredom (or even disgust) and tribalism.

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Stormont: The End?

It is 9am and I am on the Dublin train. When I return this afternoon, Stormont might have fallen. “Fallen” is a dramatic word that conjures up the Fall of Saigon in the 1970s but when the word “drama” and the phrase “on the brink” is used in connexion to Norn Iron, all meaning is lost. Not least because outside the rarified world of politicians, journalists, lobbyists and bloggers, nobody really cares.

We all loved the Peace of the Good Friday Agreement and all rushed to the polling stations to endorse it. But it has all been an anti-climax as stagnation has set in. Nobody makes difficult decisions because the history shows that people who make difficult decisions are electoral losers.

We have the Westminster Village. We have the Washington Beltway but geographically and mentally the Stormont Bubble is the most isolated of all.

Nobody cares.

The simple fact is that DUP and Sinn Féin play to their core voters and that involves some nasty rhetoric and that makes people vote DUP and Sinn Féin as a form of tribal loyalty. And this makes DUP and Sinn Féin leaders of “their” tribe and the main players in coalition government. They hate each other. And they need each other.

So we go from brink to brink. There is no Budget because DUP, UUP and Alliance…conservative parties …demand “welfare cuts” and the left-leaning Sinn Féin and SDLP are against “cuts”. Sinn Féin dare not say it publicly but they would be delighted if Westtminster simply imposed them. It would have the additional benefit of allowing Sinn Féin to blame the “Brits” which always plays well with a nationalist electorate. I have been blaming the “Brits” for just about everything my entire life and will happily blame the “Brits” for my cremation. I love Resentment.

Two murders within a mile of each other have raised the stakes.

Much is in the Public Domain. Jock Davison is believed to be a key figure in the brawl that led to the stabbing of Robert McCartney ten years ago. Davison was a leading Republican who it is alleged ordered the murder and orchestrated the forensic clean up that the IRA carried out. The murder is one of those incidents of  Injustice which has been marginalised for the greater prize of Peace.

Four months ago Davison was himself murdered and all the leading figures in ….ahem…Republicanism …showed up at the funeral …and while their demeanour indicated a degree of discipline and they were uniformly dressed in a non-uniform…and the coffin had the traditional black beret and black gloves on the Irish National Flag….the body language was quite clear to seasoned watchers.

And last month Kevin McGuigan was shot dead, a murder that had all the hallmarks of an IRA killing. It is alleged that McGuigan was shot in revenge for Davison and the PSNI have stated the IRA were involved.

This is something on which the DUP and UUP had to act. The IRA is not supposed to exist and whether DUP or UUP would thank the PSNI for their candour is a different question. Either way, playing Politics, the smaller UUP claim they have had enough of the farce and head for the Opposition benches. And this pressurises DUP to go beyond “seeking clarity” or accepting the rhetoric that the IRA has “left the stage”….an ambiguous term.

So the British Government wont “suspend” Stormont. Nor will the other parties (keep an eye on Alliance) vote to support a DUP motion to “adjourn” Stormont. This would have the pleasant consequence of limiting scrutiny of a potentially embarrassing scandal for DUP.

Yes there is an aspect of DUP-UUP inter-unionist electioneering but DUP have raised the stakes. If their motion to “adjourn” is defeated, the DUP Ministers resign from the Executive. Stormont falls.

Of course its possible that the British and Irish Governments can cobble some deal together, possibly involving Welfare Cuts…but its hard to see that Sinn Féin will be minded to deal when three prominent Repblicans are held in police custody, being questioned about the McGuigan murder. One of the Republicans is Chair of (northern) Sinn Féin. He even has an office….at Stormont.

Next step?

Well as always….the British and Irish Governments will convene “talks”. Its the usual next step. And with no Stormont Government, the British aided and abetted by civil servants will administer the Government under Direct Rule.

Will Ministers lose salaries? Will the Party staffs be downsized? Will the constituency offices no longer have the funding to deal with constituents problems….about welfare, health, justice etc.

Those who play up “Civic Society ” talk about an Assembly that is actually broader than Politics (in the Party sense). A kinda undemocratic Vichy type collaboration between the British and local movers and shakers, who will do anything if the price is right.

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GAWD Bless You Mrs Windsor

It would be churlish not to mention that “Queen Elizabeth of England” is now the longest reigning monarch in English History. I doff my cap in admiration. Some might say she is a “welfare scrounger” but she seems harmless enough and has generously announced that she will now only live in one palace…Buckingham Palace…and turn Balmoral, Sandringham and Windsor Castle over to the United Nations to re-settle Syrian refugees.

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Quintin And The Kurds

Nearly interesting article by Quintin Oliuver (sic) in today’s Daily Mirror about his “experiences in a refugee camp”. REading the headline. I wondered if Baby Quintin had been smuggled out of Hungary in a wicker basket. Or maybe a Teenage Quintin had pole vaulted over the Berlin Wall in the 1970s.

Alas not. Norn Iron’s leading “agent for change” had recently spent ten days in a refugee camp in Kurdistan. All very worthy. Hats off to Quintin. He was providing them with a political education…which is comedy gold.

Speaking about the hardships, Quintin noted that a farmer missed his “social media class” because he had to go home and plant some seeds for the next harvest. I am not making this up (page 13 of the Daily Mirror and it isn’t even 1st April).

I hope Quintin remembered his old friends at Slugger O’Toole and provided a link to some really brilliant articles. Those Kurds in the refugee camps probably talk about nothing else. On the other hand, a reasonable person might think they have enough problems and don’t really need to read David McCann, Alan Meban, Sheldon and Dimbleby.

On a personal note, I cant say that I have noticed any additional traffic from the Middle East. …just a few from Turkey.

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Vichy Norn Iron

If the Executive does collapse…if Stormont does collapse….what exactly is the next stage? Direct Rule from Westminster….but I think there might well be a local dimension.

Perhaps a ten-person Commission to oversee things and give a veneer of respectability to London’s decisions.

It would be the ultimate undemocratic quango.

The Great and the Good…who hang about the Long Gallery at Stormont nibbling on vol-au-vents and posing for photographs that appear in the Ulster Tatler. The generous salary for colaboration would almost be worth sitting thru a Platform for Change event.

The usual suspects  from LetsGetAlongerism…who would rush forward to serve us in our time of crisis. We salute their indefatiguability and thank them for their service.

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The Executive “At The Brink”…Again

So the DUP has decided there will be no more meetings of the Stormont Executive until the problem of IRA “does it exist?” And Welfare Reform is solved. It looks like an arbitary decision by the DUP but it is all the hallmarks of choreography between DUP and the British Government. There is something re-assuring about journalists standing outside Stormont and telling us we are “on the brink”. All traditionalists will be happy to hear this kinda language.

Basically we have been “on the brink” for a couple of years. The DUP, UUP and Alliance are conservative parties and are politically committed to Welfare Cuts. They are pro-austerity. Sinn Féin and SDLP lean to the left and are anti-austerity. And with the Tories at Westminster holding the purse-strings, we have had this peculiar stand-off. Any direct intervention from Westminster would be welcome by DUP…and just as much by Sinn Féin because they need a sense of resentment at the British and can blame them for making the decisions that Sinn Féin cant make. Sinn Féin need the British and the cover they provide to stay in the Executive.

The problem over IRA involvement in the murder of Kevin McGuigan on Short Strand last month has raised the stakes. Sinn Féin denies the IRA exists…it “has left the stage” they say…but thats not the same thing. Leaving the stage and leaving the theatre are two different things.  We can all see them in the wings watching the drama unfold.

And just as importantly DUP needs to persuade its electorate that the


IRA doesnt exist…even if they know the reality. Remember the good old days …just ten years ago……when the DUP and UUP referred to Sinn Féin as “Sinn Féin-IRA”. They spat out the words. The unionists parties demonised Sinn Féin to justify their unwillingness to deal with them.

Of course nobody in DUP uses that rhetoric now. Sinn Féin is after all propping DUP up as much as DUP are propping up Sinn Féin. And the saintly but hapless Alliance Party, gerrymandered into place as the “third party” of government wont be making any waves …not while there are ministerial salaries, chauffeur driven cars and “advisor posts” avaliable, out of proportion with its votes.

Let me frank …the IRA DOES exist. Not every member of Sinn Féin is a member of the IRA. Not every “hard nut” in an An Féile audience is a member of the IRA. Not every so-called “community worker” in the Markets, Falls Road, Creggan or Newry is a member of the IRA. Not every ex-prisoner is a member of the IRA. Not every man downing a pint of Guinness is a member of the IRA but it is an integral part of the movement, simply and anbiguously known as the “Republican Movement”.

Creative Ambiguity?

Let me be more frank. The dirty little secret known to the Republican Movement …AND!! The Police…AND!! DUP and UUP ….AND!!! Alliance Party….AND!!!SDLP…and every journalist and every dog in the street is that  OF COURSE IT EXISTS.

Arguably, in the early days after the Good Friday Agreement, the IRA was needed to enforce the settlement on potential dissidents. Did the British and Irish governments actually facilitate that? Are unsolved murders in the years after 1998 a “nod and a wink” to the IRA that there were “hoisekeeping issues”, the tying up of loose ends?

How else can the “secret” letters of comfort to scores of republicans be explained? How else can the dragging of feet by PSNI over historical crimes be explained? How else can the Northern Bank be explained? Or the lack of arrests over the Quinn murder in South Armagh? Not to mention the failure to really tackle organised crime, such as smuggling and fuel laundering? How is it possible that there are seemingly paramilitary funerals? How are so many mistakes made in the legal and judicial process…as in the case of Mairia Cahill?

Did the IRA kill Kevin McGuigan in revenge for the murder of Jock Davison? Despite arrests, will anyone actually be charged and convicted? Ever?

Is it not logical to take a pragmatic view that…at best …the IRA will exist to keep a watching brief on how the post-Conflict is working out? And equally logical that…at worst…the IRA will kill people?

Isnt it logical that there is a “command structure”?

Isnt it just the compromise that we all signed up to two decades ago?

While the DUP, Sinn Féin and the rest are playing petty politics, we all need to make a decision. We are as complicit in all this as the main players. We had a Dirty War….we have a Dirty Peace.

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Michael Copeland Resigns From Assembly

Michael Copeland MLA (UUP) resigning from Assembly is interesting. The replacement will be more interestting as Copeland is unlikely to have jumped without having a good idea who his replacement might be. His wife, Sonia is an East Belfast councillor so she must be favourite.

There is really no point in speculating as the decision is already made…either in East Belfast or in Mike Nesbitt’s office.

I liked Michael Copeland. He spoke at a SDLP Youth Conference in Derry in 2013 and is a man who clearly wants to do his best for the disadvantaged in his East Belfast constituency. He spoke movingly about the sense of hopelessness that young people have.

If the decision is a genuine “East Belfast” decision then Sonia Copeland might be the successor. If Copeland has been eased out, then a UUP “advisor” might step up…a Nesbitt loyalist. And TV Mike might spring a surprise with a “unicorn” (Catholic unionist). Or he might well return to his Conservative roots by nominating a person associated with the failed NI Tory Party….one of the Hustons…Felicity, Brian or young Alex….Trevor Ringland?

It is a pity that Ian Parsley and Paula Bradshaw seem committed to the Alliance Party.

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Tales Around The Fireside

We lived in West Belfast.

My father worked in the Grosvenor Road area. One day he brought me into a street called Burnaby Street near Distillery Football Club. And he told me that he used to live there.

Back in 1921, it was evenly divided between Protestants and Catholics and my father (quoting his mother) said that there was sectarian rioting and a Protestant woman had shouted out that there would be no Catholics left in the street that night. And sure enough the Catholics were expelled for fear of their lives.

My father was a babe in arms at the time. My Uncle Jackie would have been about 11 years old. There may have been a boy “Wee Bobby” in between or as he died as a child, he was more likely already dead. My granny was already pregnant and Auntie Sheila was born in a room above a pub at Peters Hill in 1922…a gun battle was happening outside.

Shortly afterwards they moved to a house in the Broadway-Beechmount area of the Falls Road. Trauma over? Not quite …my Uncle Jackie would witness a totally innocent man, the caretaker of the Presbyterian Church at Broadway, shot dead by the IRA in a blatantly sectarian reprisal. Uncle Jackie never forgot it. And around the same time, a truck load of B Specials cruised the area, indiscriminately shooting into side-streets and Uncle Jackie pushed my father behind the wall opposite their home. Neither Uncle Jackie nor my father ever forgot it.

So the trauma was over …my grandparents lived in that house until their deaths almost forty years later (1959 and 1961) and my Auntie Sheila lived there until she left in 1983.

So the trauma was often recalled on Sunday night visits when the subject would come up. It was of course the early 1960s and this was the stuff of History…some forty years previously.

My mother…who came from Counnty Armagh was always frightened. I even recall two of our elderly neighbours telling similar stories… how as schoolgirls they carried guns and bullets “for the boys”. Scary enough for a 10 year old boy like myself to be simultaneously scared to death and relieved that this was 1962 or whatever and nothing like this could ever happen again.

Trauma over? No….ten years later and I cant get home from work because there is rioting near my own house. And I only make it as far as that same house in Broadway-Beechmount…now only Auntie Sheila and Uncle Charlie (her husband) live there…and I sleep on the couch.

Next morning, I am leaving for work and the British Paratrooper manhandles me across the street to a space between the Butchers Shop and the wall where Uncle Jackie shoved my father fifty years before…and they laugh at my Auntie Sheila tearfully berating them …”Dont touch that child ….I have every hair on his head counted”.

GOD love her. They are all dead. My parents. My Grandparents. Uncle Jackie and Auntie Mary. Auntie Sheila and Uncle Charlie.

Fireside Tales from forty years previously. And I have more Fireside Tales to tell my sons and grandchildren. So has Mrs Fitzjames Horse.

And now I am blogging about it.

I wont kid myself…it is NEVER over. NEVER.

By the way, Broadway Presbyterian Church closed in the 1980s and is now ….An Cultúrlann…the Irish Language Centre.

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Pre-Conflict, Conflict and Post-Conflict

As I have said before, there are only three stages to the Irish (now Northern) “Problem”. There is Pre-Conflict, Conflict and Post Conflict. In terms of a “Problem”….Ireland has always been “A Problem” for England and England has always been “THE Problem” for Ireland.

Really we were all born into this…we are all born into some part of the Arc of Irish History. Thus a child born in 1952 (not exactly a year I choose at random) is born into the Post-Conflict stage and will spend his childhood happily before the great watershed year of 1969.

A child born in 1962 is born into a Post-Conflict stage but will spend his/her childhood in a Pre-Conflict stage and spend decades living in Conflict.

A child born in 1972 will be born into the worst years and spend the best part of twenty years living with no memory of “peace” and little expectation of it. But a child born in 1982 will be born into bad years but grow up knowing that the worst was over. The child born in 1992 will be born as History is moving from Conflict to Post-Conflict and grow up in a Post-Conflict world.

But I choose 2002 …not entirely at random…because my first grandchild is born into Post-Conflict and and the Troubles are seeming of little relevance. I wont see most of his life…what phase he and his own family will live thru as adults.

More so…my most recent grandchild…born in 2012. She is without doubt born into Pre-Conflict. Thats how it is. Make no mistake, there is a date out there as relevant in Irish History as 1798, 1916 and ….1969.

And to be 17 years old and have no real resiliance to the daily trauma of Conflict. Because its a simple fact that everyone born and brought up in 1952….in Falls Road, Ardoyne, Short Strand, Shankill Road , the Village, Sandy Row, Tigers Bay, the Markets…is as crazy as I am.

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Robert Ballagh…Question & Answer Session

Tying up some loose ends here. Almost a month since I attended the lecture on “1916 Centenary” given by artist Robert Ballagh at An Féile. I blogged about the lecture and intended to blog about the subsequent Question and Answer session.

To recap, Robert is a dedicated republican who opposes the Irish Governments lukewarm approach to the legacy of 1916, burying it in a Decade of Centenaries. He ridiculed British involvement in the commemoration and suggested…accurately in my view …that if you dont celebrate the Easter Rising as special, then you end up celebrating nothing at all.

Essentially his idea is that the Citizens of Ireland claim 24th April 2016 as a proper, unashamed Republican Day. He ridiculed the central role that the Queen of England might play.

As always, the audience at an event at An Féile is almost as interesting as the “platform”. Bill Rollston from University of Ulster was in the “chair”. He has written extensively about Belfast’s political street murals. Some people think this is a great academic enterprise. Some people think its all a load of bollox.

Danny Devenney was in the audience. The legendary “Danny D” paints political murals around West Belfast. Last year he painted the risible “Gerry Adams…Visionary….Statesman etc” mural when the Great Leader was held in custody for four days (it has since been removed as it made Gerry Adams and Sinn Féin an involuntary laughing stock). A lot of people think Belfast’s political murals are important artwork. A lot of people think its all a load of bollox.

Gerry Adams (the Visionary, the Statesman and the Etcetera) was there, sitting at the door babysitting a quiet three year old child. He is also a Grandfather.

Some Sinn Féin intellectuals like the artsy Máirtin Ó Muilleoir MLA (South Belfast) and Jim Gibney, the Irish News columnist.

And there was a lot of “hard nuts” …Sinn Féin fringe people from West Belfast. And there was the strange hybrid of Sinn Féin member…”hard nuts” posing as intellectuals to impress Gerry, Máirtín and Jim.

Eamonn Mallie, a real journalist was there. As anyone who reads his Blog will know, Eamonn writes on Art as much as he writes on Politics.

And….I was there. And I was thinking how much I wished some of my American friends had been with me. It was all an audi-visual aid to Sinn Féin dominance of West Belfast.

In other words…a typical Féile audience.

I was suffering from a severe bronchial problem. And although I asked the first question, I lost my voice but was just about understood. I asked Robert if he had any idea how An Post (the Irish Post Office) will commemorate Easter Rising thru postage stamps. It might sound like a nerdy question …and it is! …but postage stamps not only say something about a historical event, they also say something about the time that an event is commemorated.

The Easter Rising has been commemorated in 1941, 1966, 1991 and 2006 and on each occasion, it said as much about evolving “official” Irish attitudes as the Rising itself. Robert Ballagh was as much in the dark as I am….although suspicions that I had already articulated elsewhere were partly confirmed by another member of the audience.

The suspicion is that as well as recognising the 1916 Patriots, there will be recognition of both “women” and “civilians” and maybe even the Dublin police officers who were killed by the “rebels”.

Certainly An Post has a reputation for issuing stamps featuring women, partly to redress the balance that women were airbrushed outof Irish History but there is also a whiff of (the right kind of) political correctness.

Certainly I anticipated that Nurse Elizabeth O’Farrell who was a heroine in the General Post Office and was a heroine after the Surrender will feature on a stamp next year. Countess Markievicz has already featured but that is no bar to featuring again. Maybe Grace Gifford, widow of Joseph Plunkett.

And I have long believed that the suffering of civilians will be acknowledged…either in respect of the North King Street massacre by British troops or the murder (again by the British) of Francis Sheehy-Skeffington, the pacifist.

Dublin Police? Now that might be controversial but it would be an acceptable (maybe) form of reconciliation while recognising that the appearance of (directly) British forces and their so called sacrifice would be a step too far. To be honest, I think that the audience member who brought this up is probably right.

There was of course a lot of questions or more properly some of the “hard nuts” talking about next year.

Jim Gibney spoke….a long statement, seemingly the object to put a Sinn Féin centre stage and put a spin on what Robert Ballagh had been saying. At the end of the long party-line delivery , in which Gibney referenced the need for “reconciliation” and referencing Orangeman Rev Meryn Gibson’s appearance at An Féile with Residents spokesman (sic) Spike Murray and noting “ex prisoner” (ie UVF man) Plum Smith at An Féile.

At the end of this meandering spoofery, Robert Ballagh simply asked Gibney….”and what is your question?”

At the end of it all, I got a few words with Robert Ballagh. He kindly autographed some First Day Covers he had designed. I mentioned I was a member of SDLP. This remark was overheard by a local “hard nut” who said “Are you a Stoop?”. I think I put him in his place by saying I dont indulge in “Stoop” and “Shinner” insults.

That shut the fecker up. Hard nut? ….my arse!

So what did we learn?

Well the Irish Government commemoration of 1916 will be influenced by the event itself and the history that has come after….essentially in the six years after the (deeply unpopular) Rising pushed forward an emotional response to British over-reaction and brought about the first Dáil which retrospectively endorsed Pearse, Connolly and the rest. But post-Treaty a counter-revolution set in which re-alligned Irish politics around (eventually) Fianna Fáil  who were more pro-Republican than (eventually) Fine Gael, a coalition of softer Republicans and west-Briton unionists. Arguably, years of Partition, European membership, the Good Friday Agreement consolidated the Counter-Revolution. Its all about the totality of relationships between Ireland and Britain as Charles Haughey of Fianna Fáil put it years ago.

Notwithstanding the result of any Irish General Election ahead of 24th April 2016, the official plans are Fine Gael-inspired.

Fine Gael inspired plans dilutes the message of Easter 1916. And Robert Ballagh and others are obviously right to arrange alternative commemorations that better reflect the republican values than under-pin the Irish Nation…an Irish Nation of which I am a citizen. Robert Ballagh would be the first to recognise that “republicans” are in all Parties in the Republic of Ireland and in at least two in the North of Ireland.

To emphasise Robert Ballagh sees no connexion between Easter Rising and outreaching to northern unionists and the British.

Yet curiously the Sinn Féin philosophers and “hard nuts” see it differently. At no point during the lecture or Q & A session did anyone mention SDLP. Sinn Féin dont really acknowledge that it is possible SDLP members can be Republican. The northern commemorations will have Sinn Féins fingerprints all over ….rather like the official Dublin ceremonies will have Fine Gael fingerprints.

For Fine Gael….it is about the Easter Rising…and outreaching to the British.

For Sinn Féin (and dont forget an Assembly Election weeks after Easter 2016 )….it is about Easter  1916 and their old mates Rev Mervyn Gibson of the Orange Order and Plum Smith, formerly of the UVF.

For me…..well I dont really see this as the Centenary of the Easter Rising. It is more like the 50th Anniversary of the Fiftieth Anniversary of the Easter Rising.

In 1966, I was 13 going on 14. Next year, I will be 63 going on 64.

What has changed? A lot. But one thing that I dont think has changed is a familiar Irish pattern….Pre-Conflict….Conflict….Post-Conflict….Pre-Conflict….Conflict….and so on.

So really I just have this feeling of deja vu….I have this feeling of deja vu…I have this feeling of deja vu.

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