SDLP: 2016 Candidates

This is the full list of SDLP candidates for 2016 Assembly Election.

Foyle: Colum Eastwood. Mark H Durkan.  Gerard Diver.

East Derry: Gerry Mullan.

West Tyrone: Daniel McCrossan.

Fermanagh-South Tyrone: Richie McPhillips.

North Antrim: Connor Duncan.

East Antrim: Margaret Anne McKillop.

South Antrim: Roisin Lynch.

Mid Ulster: Patsy McGlone.

Lagan Valley: Pat Catney.

North Belfast: Nichola Mallon.

West Belfast: Alex Attwood.

East Belfast: Amy Doherty.

South Belfast: Claire Hanna. Fearghal McKinney.

Strangford: Joe Boyle.

North Down: Conall Browne.

Upper Bann: Dolores Kelly.

South Down: Sean Rodgers. Sinead Bradley. Colin McGrath.

Newry-Armagh: Karen McKevitt. Justin McNulty.

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Meanwhile At The Back Of The Bus…

You have to laugh. Sinn Féin DO have a sense of Entitlement and are not above lying thru their teeth for political advantage. Indeed Denial and Lies are part of Sinn Féin’s charm. It is their Unique Selling Point and one I happily bought into for several years (1993-2009).

I am largely immune to Sinn Féin. They cant bluff me in the way they can bluff a features writer for the New York Times. And I respect the fact that they dont even try to bluff me. It saves time with the whole canvassing thing.

So…Gerry Adams enjoys the trappings of…being Gerry Adams. As everyone ignores the Elephant in the Room, Gerry poses as a pretty regular guy…albeit an eccentric one.

So strolling up to the gates of the White House must have seemed a pretty ordinary day for Gerry Adams. To be denied admission was not part of the plan.

It was of course a screw-up. But Gerry conjuring up images of Rosa Parkes with his “Sinn Féin do not sit at the back of the bus” bombast is risible. Gerry Adams is no Rosa Parks. It is unlikely the mural painters at the International Wall in Divis Street,will use it as inspiration.

I do permit myself a wry smile. Not least because it is an indication that Sinn Féin’s run of good luck is running out. A wry smile is permissable …much more dignified than the smirks on Slugger O’Toole.

Certainly Adams closest allies will bluster about the injustice of it all. But I suspect Mary Lou McDonald, Matt Carthy and Pearse Doherty  will see it as a sign that the Leader is losing his lustre. He is on his way out.

 

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SDLP Conference 2016

I was not at yesterday’s SDLP Annual Conference in Derry. In spite of my absence…or because of it…it was by all accounts , a success.

Staging the Conference in March was a success. Assembly Elections  and the fixed term British Elections take place in May…so changing the date of any Party Conference from early winter to spring makes sense. Having the Party Conference in the SDLP “spiritual home” Derry was a good move and staging it in a “hall” rather than a pricey hotel made even more sense.

I tend to see this Conference as a two parter. The launch of the SDLP manifesto in a few weeks is the second part. At that stage more detail will be added to the agenda sketched out yesterday.

To some extent, it was a non-conference. Nobody had any thought other than the Leaders Speech…again a format change…delivering it after 8pm rather than after lunch. To a degree, the series of warm up panel discussions on Heath, Education, Crime etc were time-fillers…albeit important ones…as Party spokespersons stepped up to the podium. A further marking of the changing of the guard as candidates like Daniel McCrossan, Nichola Mallon and Sinead Bradley had another chance of playing in the first team…and important in the context of this being an event just ahead of an Election Campaign.

The Party is clearly in good form. There is nothing artificial about the way SDLP feels at the moment. The Party takes heart from a fairly diverse group of candidates, including at least one who is openly gay and one from a unionist background. People born outside Norn Iron are now added to the gene pool and they are not bound by our political history or political language. And in the rank and file, there are defections from Sinn Féin, Greens and Labour NI…and it is a reasonable assumption that if SDLP can take members from other parties, it can certainly take votes from other parties….and of course those who dontvote at all.

How many votes?. Well…that is a very big question. But as I recall SDLP lost out on the final seat in seven constituencies in 2011 and a relatively few votes is required in (say) Fermanagh-South Tyrone. The big push is already underway to get people on the electoral register and getting postal votes organised. New members are a good sign…but actually the re-engagement of “friends of the Party” at social events seems a much more promising sign. Indeed my wife…a passive SDLP voter for over thirty years (much more consistent than me) has become very interested in Politics lately.

So….the Speech. If you are interested enough to read this Blog, you probably saw the Speech on TV or at least are familiar with the content.

For all their qualities, Margaret Ritchie and Alasdair McDonnell always seemed ill at rase when making the Leader’s Speech. Members were clearly wishing Colum Eastwood well and flanked by the Party’s candidates, he delivered a speech that was well crafted and fluent. Ticked all the right boxes….Europe, Housing, Health, Education.

He spelt out the SDLP position for after the Election. Going into government depends on a programme for government to which the Party can sign up. Going into Opposition is a realistic alternative.

Good soundbites “we will not be raising our children for export”, “three into two wont go”, “Gerry-Come-Latelys”, “…we have your backs” (support for migrants) and the obligatory quotes from John Hewitt and Seamus Heaney.

And an emphasis on the Future rather than the Past. Sometimes old dinosaurs like me …need to realise that it is more about the Future than the Past …and get on board the train, knowing full well that I will never arrive at the destination.

I cant condemn my children and grandchildren to live in a God-forsaken “No-Mans-Land”, half-loving and half-hating the place where I have lived all my life.

So….Colum Eastwood is Leader for four months and he has spent that time within the Party. We are now seven weeks away from an Election.

Most SDLP people will say “Bring it on!”

 

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SDLP: Reasons To Be Cheerful

I wont be able to travel to Derry for the SDLP Conference tomorrow. It promises to be a Conference with a difference. It is in Derry, spiritual home of the Party and the constituency of new Leader, Colum Eastwood.

I have never been in St Columbs Hall. It feels significant that the Conference is not being held in a hotel…I remember my first Annual Conference in 1973 in the Europa Hotel in Belfast. And in a strange way, it felt like we were breaking down barricades…people like me from West Belfast and others from Derry, Coalisland and Newry…in this fancy hotel.

Recent conferences seem to alternate between the Ramada in South Belfast and the Armagh City Hotel. And the ambience in a fancy hotel might be different. Significantly the Conference will concluse with a “social” rather than the overly expensive “Dinner” in the fancy hotels.

It will be a different sort of Conference. Family and friends given the same status as members. A Movement as much as a Party. In other words a bigger version of the meeting at Oxford Island, Lurgan, earlier this week.

A familiar enough pattern. A walk-around The town centre before going to meet sixth form pupils at St Ronan’s School and meeting the Party and friends later in the evening.

image

Colum seems ideally suited to this. Previous Leaders have been Westminster -based which meant that most of a week was spent in London. Little left for nurturing the Party, minding a constituency AND recreation.

Colum is therefore able to visit a lot of constituencies and still get home to Derry.

People who blog are like spectators at a football match. No balls are required to watch a football match…or blog about a party conference. I cant say I am overly anxious what Alan Meban and David McCann of Slugger O’Toole will make of it all. On their previous record …not much. But at least it is good to see them get this far away from the Metrotextual bubble which is probably a more natural habitat for them than St Columbs Hall in Derry.

I am sorry to miss the Conference. The atmosphere around a Conference is actually much more interesting than the set-pieces.

But there will be set pieces. The Party political broadcast, the introduction of the candidates who will contest the Assembly Election in just eight weeks time. As far as I know, only East Belfast and North Down are the only constituencies without a publicly announced candidate.

The key thing seems to be that SDLP is re-calibrating. There seems to be genuine goodwill towards SDLP. The cliché that there is a “good reception on the doorstep” seems to be true. People seem pleased and even surprised at the visibility. New people like Claire Hanna and Nichola Mallon are in TV studios and people like Roisin Lynch, Richie McPhillips and Sinead Challinor are in the local papers….visibility. And Feargal McKinney and Dolores Kelly perceived as doing well in their portfolios.

I am knda happy.

 

 

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Colum Eastwood In Upper Bann

As Mrs FJH says I never take her out, I surprised her by taking her to hear SDLP Leader, Colum Eastwood and Senator Mairia Cahill at a SDLP Upper Bann meeting tonight.

SDLP Conference is on Saturday. The Party is very much in election mode. This is one of a series of meetings that have been taking place in the North. It is actually about more than touching base with Party members…it is as much about touching base with core support.

Being visible is important. Westminster-based …Seamus Mallon, Mark Durkan, Margaret Ritchie and Alasdair McDonnell were not really able to do this. Colum has been visiting towns, doing walkabouts, talking to traders and talking to Sixth Formers at local schools. Today…Lurgan, Portadown and St Ronans School.

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“Yer Own’s The Worst”

I am feeling oddly nostalgic this morning. In part it is because I as replying to a comment from “An Sionnach Fionn”.

Three years ago, I gave a lecture on Norn Iron to a group of post-grads at Texas State University. As I was ending it, I was asked “how do young people in Norn Iron feel?”. I gave a flippant answer that I did not understand anyone under forty. But it is a good question and deserves a good answer.

In the lecture I referenced seeing the American Civil Rights struggle just a few years before the Norn Iron Civil Rights campaign. And I think a good answer would have been that I was (then) a 60 year old Belfast man and that i might see things in a similar way to a 65 year old black man from Selma, Alabama.

Basically I hear two things from young people. Sometimes I am told that “nothing has changed”. Sometimes I am told that “everything has changed”. The old man in Selma and the old man from Belfast know that the answer is somewhere in between.

Back in the early 1970s, my father had a serious heart problem. He was in the Royal Victoria Hospital in Belfast. And he would mention the young nurses. “She is from Newry”, “the wee blonde one is from Dungiven”.

He was expressing delight that there were Catholic nurses in the RVH. Ten years later, he was even more amazed. “She is from Wexford” “the ginger one is from Galway”. Even more shocked that the RVH was (thanks to the European Union and fair employment legislation) employing nurses from the Republic of Ireland.

To  a man of his generation, who had several serious health problems all his life, this was a major change.

I had cousins…siblings…who trained as nurses in Manchester, England. It would have been impossible to be trained in Norn Iron. Many young women stayed in England. Some like my cousins came home. One was compelled to leave nursing when she married. The other stayed single into middle age and reaped the benefits of a fairer system in 1970s and 1980s and had a very successful career.

Yet almost as soon as I started working in the early 1970s, I heard the old saying “yer own’s the worst”. Certainly it was a phrase that Catholics used to point up thatit was much better to have a Protestant boss than a Catholic one. Dont expect any favours…I often wondered if Protestant workers felt the same way …that they would get few favours from a Protestant boss….one of “their own”.

Certainly it is a phrase that seems to have jumped the gender gap. I have often heard women say that they get few favours from female bosses.

We now have the situation were Catholics can aspire to reach the top of the tree in public service jobs. And get to drive the fancy cars and li e in the best houses.

And the other day, a woman I have known since we were teenagers was telling me about the successful and well-known daughter of a mutual friend from the old days who had completely “forgotten where she comes from”…And apparently this young woman is a real hot-shot barrister. The kinda person who has “an account at House of Fraser”

Should I be pleased?

My father …and my cousins …would wonder at these changes.

 

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European Union: Talking Turkey

The curious thing about “Brexit” (the Referendum on whether Britain should stay in or leave the so-called European Union) is that it is a debate between Institutions that I dont like and Individuals who I dont like.

On one side there are the “banks” and “big business”. On the other side…Boris Johnson MP (Tory Mayor of London), Nigel Farage MEP (UKIP) ,Kate Hoey MP (Labour) and Sammy Wilson MP (DUP) My vote will put a smile on some very unworthy faces.

The thing about “Europe” is that it might be very pragmatic but it is impossible for me to “love” being European in the same way  that I love Ireland. When I am sitting up all night to watch the Olympics, I wont feel any empathy with French cyclists, Romanian gymnasts, Polish pole vaulters and British anything. I wont be getting emotional over any Flag or Anthem but my own.

“Europe” is a failure. Whether or not it is better to be “in” or “out” is a different question. I voted “NO” in the 1970s to something called the Common Market and I have opposed every single measure that advanced political integration. It did no good of course. We are where we are…possibly too integrated to disentangle the project without causing too much pain.

If anyone is to persuade me to vote “YES”, the only argument to which I will listen is the one that tells me that I cant turn back the clock. Dont try and tell me it is all a great idea. Like the “good ole rebel” in the Confederate song, I fought it all I could. .”I aint a gonna love it…now that it is certain sure”.

The European “project” reached its nadir when it expanded from  fifteen to twenty-five nations. With recognition that Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia  and more so Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia had moved from the Czarist/Soviet/Russian sphere into the Western sphere, the power balance in the world has changed. Putin’s aggression in Ukraine is a direct consequence.

The collapse of so many economies (notably Greece) after 2008 and the migrant crisis has worsened things.

It is impossible to look at the TV news and see dead children washed up on beaches, the conditions in camps on the Greece-Macedonia border or shanty towns being demolished on the French coast…and feel good about being “European”.

I am not a big fan of the young single men …economic migrants. But it is clear that entire families are on the move….a mass migration, unprecedented in modern times.

And Europe is panicked. Germany and Sweden might well have had the right humanitarian instincts but they have finally been overwhelmed by the numbers and undermined by the rise of Racism.

Understandably people fleeing human rights abuses are attracted to countries with a good human rights records. And that makes pre-2005 EU a better prospect than the expanded EU after 2005.

We have the bizarre spectacle of David Cameron, whose Tory Party used migration trying to take the toxic issue out of the Brexit Referendum. We have the bizarre spectacle of Vernon Coaker, the British Labour spokesman coming to Belfast to campaign for a YES vote. That would be the same Vernon Coaker who voted to bomb Syria….and that conflict is the reason for children are drowning in the sea between Turkey and Greece.

Ah Turkey….now thats not exactly a human rights success story. Last week, the Turkish government took over the country’s leading newspaper. And tonight in Brussels, “Europe” is bribing Turkey with billions to accept refugees sent back.

A disgrace.

Of course that is only the beginning. Turkey wants to be a member of the European Union. Leaving aside the absurdity of a mostly Asian country joining “Europe”, is there anyone who seriously think that Turkey will be converted to Decency? And of course, freedom of movement means Turkish people will migrate to …..Germany, Sweden, Britain.

Has it got so bad that Europe courts Turkey?

And is Turkey claiming to be European any more absurd than Israel claiming to be European?

There are at least two strands within Europe…and the NATO members cannot dictate the pace for the neutrals like Sweden, Finland, Austria and…Ireland. It is a simple fact that our instincts and history are better than mainstream European values. It should not be a matter of Ireland rushing to accept the European mainstream.

Of course there are practicalities. If leaving Europe is bad for Britain….then I am certainly tempted to vote to leave. Britain’s difficulty is Ireland’s oppprtunity. Nor does the thought of the break up of the “United Kingdom” fill me with a morbid fear…an English “NO” and a Scottish “YES” amuses me.

But ultimately, I see it thru an Irish prism. Has European integration helped or hindered the integration of the North of Ireland with the South of Ireland? Will Britain leaving Europe divide Ireland further?

If you seek to persuade me, dont tell me what is good for Europe…..cos I dont give a damn.

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Politics Message Boards…What’s The Point?

First of all let me emphasise that “Keeping An Eye On The Czar Of Russia” is not a “Politics Message Board”. This is a Blog, a Journal, the ramblings of one person…me. You may be reading this on 29th February 2016…or you might have stumbled across it on 18th June 2173 (or some stardate) as you trawl thru long forgotten iclouds as part of your dissertation for a history degree at Queens University, Belfast.

Sources are of course important. I doubt anyone in 2173 will consider that “Fitzjames Horse” is a useful good source for whats happening in the world, Ireland or Norn Iron in the early years of the 21st century…No doubt History professors in 2173 will be guiding students towards Huffington Post, Guido Fawkes, Politics.ie and Slugger O’Toole as being influential.

As the “Czar of Russia” reference implies I am highly skeptical of the Internet being a reliable guide to Politics. Indeed we often hear …especially in Norn Iron …that our politicians are out of touch with real people.

I do not know how many people are registered with Ireland’s premier message board “Politics.ie” but I am aware that nearly four hundred people contributed to its online poll “How Did You Vote in the General Election?”. No doubt this is a fraction of the number of registered users in the Republic of Ireland but presumably is fairly representative of the total.

But I notice that the votes of the Politics.ie readers are a bit different from actual figures.

I set out below the Politics.ie figures.

FG: 17% ..SF: 26% ..Lab 8% ..GP 8%…FF 3%.

and the Actual figures.

FG 25%…SF 14%…Lab 7%…GP 3%…FF24%.

From these figures, it seems that those who took part in the Politics.ie survey were unrepresentative of the Irish electorate. There is of course no way of knowing if it is representative of registered users on the site. But there is no reason to think that supporters of one party are more likely to express a preference online to this extraordinary extent.

Certainly it makes me think that it is at least representative of “discussion” on the site, relating to 26-county matters. I dont contribute regularly to Politics.ie and rarely if at all to 26-county threads.
The obvious question is just how useful this site can be to (say) students of Irish politics in (say) United States or Britain. A reasonable conclusion might be that Sinn Féin and Greens supporters are more likely to influence Politics.ie discussions than Fine Gael and
Fianna Fáil supporters. It can hardly be due to the cliché that FF supporters are old men in the west of Ireland.
Is there a group-think…the site effectively in the grip of dazzling metro-textuals, who are removed from REAL politics?
Is Internet Politics….FANTASY politics?

Is it different in the North of Ireland where Slugger O’Toole is the market leader? I cant see Mick Fealty allowing a thread which captures the voting intentions of Slugger readers. It would, I suspect damage rather than enhance Sluggers reputation and possibly show evidence to a group-think or even agenda.
Is there a group-think within Slugger which possibly is more supportive of Alliance and liberal unionism…LetsGetAlongerists….than DUP, SDLP or Sinn Féin? Do SF and Alliance supporters make up the bulk of the readership.
We will probably never know….but it is reasonable to think that the smart-alec mantra that politicians are out of touch with the electorate is a false premise.

Surely the Internet Message Boards are out of touch with the Electorate.

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General Election: Second Impressions

So…Day Two.

For a Republic, the Election process is “sacred”…this nation at its best. Despite any personal or political preferences, the starting point is that the candidates and parties seek to serve the nation.

Having said that, I cant say that I am sorry to see the back of at least two people.

Fine Gael-Labour have lost this election and they deserved to lose. In the case of Labour, there is a strange immbalance. Arguably some have bucked the trend and held their seats (Brendan Howlin and John Burton got a sympathy vote rather than a personal vote). Dedicated servants of Labour and working class (Joe Costello) have lost or (Kevin Humphries) struggling to keep their seat. But other bench warmers and time servers have been pretty much humiliated and we will never see them in a “Prime Time” studio again.

The Green Party will come back to An Dáil and at least they are serious about engaging. The same can be said for the Social Democrats, the original three members got a ringing endorsement from the Electorate but they dont look like adding to their numbers.

The “Triple As” (Anti Austerity Alliance) are essentially street protestors and in a strange time warp, where the “working class” are permenantly excluded from governance. They seem to enjoy it.

For the most personal of all reasons…I detest the “Stickies” and whether they called/call  themselves Republican Clubs, Workers Party, Democratic Left or entryists into Labour Party, I have no time for them. Insofar as “Sticky” influence within the Labour Party is diminished, then I welcome that. And hopefully there will be a coming-together of the rump of Labour and Social Democrats…surely the lesson is that the traditional Labour voters will reward people who do not desert them. Votes for the “Triple  A ” are essentially protest votes.

The big winners are Fianna Fáil.Micheál Martin comes across as a patently decent man. The Party was hammered in 2011 but the voters have been forgiving. The 2016 total number of seats will be more than double the 2011 total but still a few below the Fine Gael total.

Clearly the coalition government of FG-Labour has been defeated. And there is an onus on FF to at least try and form a new coalition. The Independent Alliance will have six or seven seats and their selling point is anti-corruption rather than philosophy so they might be active or passive partners. The same can be said for “FF gene pool” Independents.

Sinn Féin will make a “principled” show of turning down a place in government…but the real point is that neither FG or FF will ask them. SF is simply too toxic and remains so while Gerry Adams is at the helm. His denials of his own history were understandable in the 1980s but are increasingly irritating. His interview strategy, developed in interview rooms at Castlereagh RUC station does not play nearly as well in a RTÉ studio.

Sinn Féin had a  good election. But not nearly as good as the election Fianna Fáil had. They went into this election thinking they would be THE story. The 13.8 per cent is comfortably above the 2011 percentage but transfers were a problem. There were near misses…Paul Donnelly and Chris Andrews for example. There is an Adams factor….he motivates Sinn Féin as an icon and he turns people off as a relic. Mary Lou McDonald has been seen as the successor. Increasingly she looks like a short term Leader….Adams is rarely seen without Mary Lou nodding obediently at his shoulder. But Eoin ÓBroin and Matt Carthy are untainted by Adams….and the North.

So….a grand coalition of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil? Well, there are nuanced answers to pointed questions in TV studios. There is a dance going on. FG is a conservative Party…..and FF is whatever it needs to be….”centrist” is as good a word as any.

Rhetoric such as “putting the country first” will be heard but I cant see how the two Civil War parties can join in government without alienating core support. The downside of “putting the country first” argument is that SF becomes the Official Opposition….and I am not sure that either FG and FF want that.

Watch this space.

 

 

 

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General Election: First Impressions

Saturday 2pm. RTE is still working on exit polls and tally accounts but some things are clear. Fine Gael has performed poorly and Labour have performed very poorly. Fianna Fáil have performed well…clearly forgiven by the electorate. Sinn Féin have improved their position and overtaken Labour as the party of the “left” and they will take that as compensation for falling short of the total number of seats they had been expecting over the last eighteen months or so.

The “left” itself is pretty fractured…Sinn Féin and even Labour have the advantage of being better organised than the “AAA”, the ad-hoc anti-austerity alliance and mavericks.

Interesting to hear Pat Rabbitte, old Workers Party, Democratic Left “sticky” complain that there are too many inconsiderate “Trots” around.

Even for anti-partitionists, there is a sense of looking over the fence into the neighbours house. I really dont understand my SDLP friends who take sides to the extent that they do. I do understand the Sinn Féin rhetoric that they are a “32 county Party” but with two different jurisdictions, it is often risible. This is a Party that legislates for austerity in the north and opposes it in the south. Just look at the adverts for “VHI Private Health Insurance”.

 

Too soon to see the “fall-out”. I tend to regard Independents as a nuisance. And there are going to be a lot of Independents. The extent to which a government can be formed when the combined votes of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil wont reach fifty per cent of votes cast is problematic.

Even if it is numerically possible, it seems politically impossible. Fine Gael (certainly) and Fianna Fáil (probably) wont treat with Sinn Féin. And the lesson that Labour (today) like the British Liberal Democrats (last year) learned is that being the junior party in a coalition leads to electoral disaster.

The extent to which The Far Left (to use Pat Rabbitte’s phrase) and local advocates like the Healy-Rae brothers from County Kerry stay outside the Govvernment-Opposition model is going to be an increasing feature of Irish politics.

At this stage, there are reports that big hitters like Joan Burton (Labour) and Michael Noonan (Fine Gael) are “in trouble”. There will of course be people who win or lose the final seat by a few votes. All mandates are the same. It is better to nearly drown than nearly be saved.

The big losers today are Labour. Pat Rabbitte is bitter. And laughably talking about social democratic values and lecturing Róisín Shortall (who left to form the Social Democrats) and Joe Higgins, always a lefty outsider. A rump of maybe ten TDs is marginalised.

The Social Democrats (three TDs outgoing and maybe one or two more)….surely their best bet is to re-form with a chastened Labour. Likewise the other “new” parties like Re-Nua and Independent Alliance dont seem to have made any real inroads and and maybe need to make up their minds as to whether they see themselves as pressure groups, representing local or specific interests or whether they want to serve in Government.

Frankly , Fianna Fáil deserved the kicking they got in 2011. Frankly, Labour (and Fine Gael) deserve the kicking they are getting today. FF have recovered ….so Labour can take comfort that the Irish electorate are remarkably forgiving.

But overall, my impression is that Ireland is a country in transition. There will almost certainly be a minority government, sustained thru the goodwill of a “responsible” Opposition and in two years, there will be a new election.

Certainly the only way that a Government can be rewarded by the electorate is to do the right things in government or meet the electorate half way. Certainly we cant have a continuing situation where parties (Fianna Fáil and Greens in 2011 and Fine Gael and Labour today) get a beating from the electorate. But I think there is an onus on the assorted Independents. They will not continue to be voted into An Dáil just to be naysayers. They have to step up to the plate.

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