This is the full list of SDLP candidates for 2016 Assembly Election.
Foyle: Colum Eastwood. Mark H Durkan. Gerard Diver.
East Derry: Gerry Mullan.
West Tyrone: Daniel McCrossan.
Fermanagh-South Tyrone: Richie McPhillips.
North Antrim: Connor Duncan.
East Antrim: Margaret Anne McKillop.
South Antrim: Roisin Lynch.
Mid Ulster: Patsy McGlone.
Lagan Valley: Pat Catney.
North Belfast: Nichola Mallon.
West Belfast: Alex Attwood.
East Belfast: Amy Doherty.
South Belfast: Claire Hanna. Fearghal McKinney.
Strangford: Joe Boyle.
North Down: Conall Browne.
Upper Bann: Dolores Kelly.
South Down: Sean Rodgers. Sinead Bradley. Colin McGrath.
Newry-Armagh: Karen McKevitt. Justin McNulty.
The SDLP will be doing miraculously well to hold 14 seats with several seats under a lot of pressure: Foyle, possible loss to SF/ PBP. Upper Bann very real prospect of loss to SF; West Belfast: possible loss to PBP (but more probably a SF loss to PBP); South Belfast possible loss to Alliance/ Greens; North Belfast possible but not probable loss to Alliance (not SF), should hold on in East Derry but not a given.
Two slim chances of gains, one in South Antrim and one in Strangford (which the SDLP have talked up in every Assembly election) but maybe this time the chance of a gain with the retirement of Kieran McCarthy the Alliance MLA from Kircubbin.
My head suggests 2-3 losses overall with perhaps 1 gain for a total of 12 seats, a good result with so many new candidates and seats under pressure but a result which continues the decline of recent assembly elections.
William how do you see SF doing? Overall gaining three?
In Strangford, in the 2015 Westminster election, the APNI’s Kellie Armstrong got 15% which is double what the SDLP got at the same election and higher than Kieran McCarthy’s (14.4%) at the previous Assembly election. So I don’t see SDLP winning this one from Alliance, to be honest.
Have you faith in William’s “analysis”?
A very lazy non-attempt at analysis.
The SDLP candidate in South Antrim seems promising and intelligent.
How many SDLP candidates have you met?
Fair enough point, John.
i am not trying to be cheeky. The worst kind of analysis is just using the figures from last time.
They are never exactly the same and the two different voting systems make it difficult.
Lets see how the campaign develops. All Parties will have good and bad days.