Profile: East Derry

Posted on May 4, 2016 by fitzjameshorse

Candidates:
DUP: Adrian McQuillan. George Robinson. Maurice Bradley.
UUP: William McCandless.Aaron Callan.
Ind Unionist: Claire Sugden.
Alliance: Yvonne Boyle.
PUP: Russell Watton.
TUV: Jordan Armstrong.
UKIP: Steven Parkhill.
Conservative: David Harding. Stuart Canning.
Green: Amber Hamill.
SDLP: Gerry Mullan.
Sinn Féin: Caoimhe Archibald. Cathal Óhoisin.
Independent: Tom Christie.

The story of 2011 was the de-selection of David McClarty by UUP and McClarty getting elected as an Independent. Neither of the selected UUP candidates was elected.
This allowed DUP to dominate the unionist vote. Gregory Campbell (now confined to Westminster), Adrian McQuillan and George Robinson were elected.
The pro-union vote was split…DUP 37%, McClarty 9% ,UUP 8%, TUV 5%.
The nationalist vote was SF 21% (1 seat for Ó hOisín) and SDLP 15% (1 seat).
Alliance scored 6%.

With big hitter Campbell out of the field, DUP can only be assured of two seats. McClarty died during the Assembly term and Claire Sugden was co-opted in his place. She is standing this time. She maybe made a mistake in not standing for Westminster as it let UUP recover and the evidence suggests there is a UUP quota. But this time around I think William McCandless and Claire Sugden are vying for the same quota.
Sinn Féin are safe for one quota and although SDLP Vote share dropped between 2011 and 2015, Gerry Mullan should retain the SDLP seat (John Dallat is stepping down from Assembly).
Ironically David Harding, a UUP candidate in 2011 is now standing as a Tory.

East Derry is one of those seats where Demographic changes will mean that a unionist seat will go nationalist but 2016 may not be the year and it is only safe to call five seats….
DUP 2, UUP 1, SF 1, SDLP 1…..
The sixth seat will be decided on DUP and SF surplus as well as TUV, Tory and Alliance eliminations.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Profile: Newry-Armagh

Posted on May 4, 2016 by fitzjameshorse

Candidates:
Sinn Féin: Conor Murphy. Cathal Boylan. Megan Fearon.
SDLP: Justin McNulty. Karen McKevitt.
DUP: William Irwin.
UUP: Danny Kennedy. Sam Nicholson.
Alliance: Craig Weir.
UKIP: Alan Love.
Green: Michael Watters.
CISTA: Emmet Crossan.
Independent Nationalist: Martin McAllister.
Independent Unionist: Paul Berry.

With 40% of the vote in 2011, Sinn Féin took three seats, Conor Murphy, Cathal Boylan and Micky Brady. Murphy resigned and Megan Fearon was co-opted. Then Micky Brady resigned and Murphy was co-opted again
Micky Brady was elected to Westminster in 2015.
UUP had a pact with DUP in 2015 and Danny Kennedy was the sole unionist candidate and took 32% of the vote.
This “pact” was widely believed to have rallied the nationalist voters around the Sinn Féin candidate. It is widely believed that the 2015 SDLP vote, while a little higher than 2011 is under-stated at 24%. In 2011, SDLP vote management was poor.
Dominic Bradley, outgoing SDLP MLA is retired from Assembly.
Karen McKevitt, outgoing MLA for South Down and Justin McNulty, who stood for Westminster last year are the candidates. Karen is based in Newry and while Justin is also a South Armagh man, he has been allocated the area around Armagh City. He has the advantage of being last year’s candidate and he was a member of the Armagh All-Ireland winning team in 2002, which should bring a lot of votes.
Another South Armagh man, Martin McAllister is running as an Independent but this is more likely to affect Sinn Féin than SDLP.
On the unionist side, Danny Kennedy has a running mate. While this is justified in terms of a high vote in Westminster last year, when loaned votes from DUP are factored in there is still only one quota.
The DUP/Paul Berry competition is more interesting. William Irwin (outgoing DUP MLA) is from Richhill and Berry, a former DUP MLA is based nearby in Tandragee. Effectively they are targeting the same voters but Irwin with the DUP machine behind him is more likely to win out.

Prediction…..SF 2, SDLP 2, UUP 1, DUP 1….conceivably SF could retain three seats with SDLP or DUP losing out.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Profile: Strangford

Posted on May 3, 2016 by fitzjameshorse

Candidates:
DUP: Jonathan Bell. MIchelle McIlveen. SImon Hamilton.Harry Harvey.
UUP: Mike Nesbitt. Philip Smith.
Alliance: Kellie Armstrong.
TUV: Stephen Cooper.
SDLP: Joe Boyle.
Sinn Féin: Dermot Kennedy.
Green: Georgia Grainger.
Conservative: Bill McKendry.
UKIP:Stephen Crosby.
Independant: Jimmy Menagh.
Independent: Rab McCartney.

A unionist stronghold which returned three DUP, two UUP (one later defected to UKIP) and one Alliance.
All three outgoing DUP MLAs …Bell, McIlveen and Hamilton have been or are Ministers in the Executive. With more than half the votes cast in 2011 and a big majority in the 2015 Westminster Election, it is a near certainty that three DUP will be elected again.
The position for UUP is different. Party Leader, “TV Mike” Nesbitt defends his seat with (unknown to me) Philip Smith. David McNarry, elected in 2011 defected to UKIP but is not standing but the Westminster election shows that there is a quota for UKIP or (more likely) TUV if the transfers work to their advantage. But transfers from the eliminated Tory should help UUP.
Veteran, Kieran McCarthy is retired so the Alliance Party is being represented by Kellie Armstrong. WIsely Ms Armstrong stood in the Westminster Election and performed well enough to show she can retain the seat.
On the nationalist side, Apathy is a problem. SDLP has come close but not close enough. Personally, I think Geography is a bigger problem. The constituency extends from suburban south east Belfast to the County Down countryside and via the main town of Newtownards down the Ards Peninsula. The SDLP outvotes Sinn Féin here by nearly three to one. SDLP success depends on nationalist turnout and picking up about 1,000 extra votes, mostly from Alliance…McCarthy and Joe Boyle (SDLP) are both from the Peninsula…and an “Eastwood bounce”….and of course transfers from Sinn Féin.
Sticking my neck out here but I think this might be the year SDLP takes Strangford.

Prediction: DUP 3, UUP 1, SDLP 1, TUV 1.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 12 Comments

Profile: East Belfast

Posted on May 3, 2016 by fitzjameshorse

Candidates:
DUP: Robin Newton. Sammy Douglas. Joanne Bunting.
Alliance: Naomi Long. Chris Lyttle. Tim Morrow.
UUP: Chris McGimpsey. Andy Allen.
Green: Ross Brown.
SDLP: Amy Doherty.
Sinn Féin: Niall Ó Donghaille.
TUV: Andrew Girvin.
Labour Representaion: Erskine Holmes.
Labour Cross Community: Courtney Robinson.
Conservative: Neil Wilson.
PUP: John Kyle.
Independent: Maggie Hutton.

The first post-Peter Robinson Assembly Election in East Belfast. Gavin Robinson’s Westminster victory over Naomi Long was more comfortable than I thought it would be, despite the efforts of some like Slugger O’Toole to turn it into a two-horse race…so I dont see this upcoming election as a big showdown between DUP and Alliance.
The DUP used to have Peter Robinson and Sammy Wilson so their slate of three candidates looks weak…Newton and Douglas are outgoing MLAs and Joanne Bunting replaces Peter Robinson.
The 2015 DUP vote included votes borrowed from UUP, TUV, PUP to “stop Naomi” so I dont se DUP as coming close to the 44% that the Party had in 2011. The vote for the PUP/TUV will likely be about 12% and that will be significant.
Outgoing Alliance MLA, Judith Cochrane is not standing….what will she do next? Obviously Naomi Long had to be facilitated but Alliance seem to think they can win three seats…with Chris Lyttle and Tim Morrow (Alliance Royalty). I cant see it. The votes borrowed in 2015…UUP again, SDLP and Green will go back home.

UUP have two candidates…outgoing wounded British soldier Andy Allen (co-opted by Nesbitt) and the better known Chris McGimpsey. They have a safe seat.
Green Ross Brown took a council seat in 2014 and the Greens have talked up his chances since then. But a lot of hot air has been blown out since then but in fairness, he was squeezed in 2015…he probably suffered most from being excluded from the “Slugger Debate”.
Sinn Féin will get its own vote out.
SDLP have Amy Doherty, a member of SDLP Youth. The vote has been squeezed to rock bottom in recent years so as well as fulfilling a duty to the electorate, the aim is to make the vote here respectable…initially in the region of 400 votes.

Prediction….DUP 2, Alliance 2, UUP 1, TUV 1.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Profile: North Down

Posted on May 3, 2016 by fitzjameshorse

Candidates:
DUP: Peter Weir. Alex Easton. Gordon Dunne.
UUP: Alan Chambers. Chris Eisenstadt. Carl McClean.
Alliance: Stephen Farry. Andrew Muir.
Green: Steven Agnew.
TUV: John Brennan.
UKIP: Bill Piper.
SDLP: Conal Browne.
Sinn Féin: Therese McCartney.
Labour Rep Committee: Maria Lourenco.
Conservative: Frank Shivers.
Independent: Brian Wilson.

North Down is unique. Socially liberal and with a lot of well-off people and a quirky hippy element, it seems almost semi-detached from the rest of Norn Iron. A place that in 2011 can send three DUP MLAs to Stormont on over 40% of the vote and in 2015 send liberal minded Sylvia Hermon to Westminster with 50% of the vote.
An Assembly election in North Down is marked by apathy. fewer than half of those eligible actually bother to vote. So I expect the quota to be very low.
Those who did vote returned three DUP, one UUP, one Alliance and one Green.

I expect the DUP vote share to go down, UUP to go up. Somehow Peter Weir, the best known of the DUP runners and who was previously in UUP has never really stood out in the Assembly.
Alan Chambers, usually a high scoring Independent is the only name I know in the UUP trio but I think that Chris Eisenstadt has appeared on Slugger O’Toole. If I recall correctly he is an American and sounds like another of Nesbitt’s head-hunting trophies.
Alliance are hoping for a gain here in what used to be a good constituency for them but they have not actually held two seats here since the Good Friday Agreement, frustrated by (once )Womens Coalition and (latterly) Green. Although Stephen Farry is the front runner here, Andrew Muir has been loitering with intent for years.
Steven Agnew is probably safe but his first preference vote is not usually good.
SDLP are making an effort. Conal Browne is the Chair of SDLP Youth There might be a target of (say) 1,000 votes which would be a good result. For Sinn Féin 500 votes would be good.

Prediction….DUP 2, UUP 1, Alliance 1 and Green 1…..the sixth seat Alliance or DUP.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Profile: West Belfast

Posted on May 3, 2016 by fitzjameshorse

Candidates:
Sinn Féin: Jennifer McCann. Fra McCann. Rosie McCorley. Pat Sheehan. Alex Maskey.
SDLP: Alex Attwood.
People Before Profit: Gerry Carroll.
DUP: Frank McCoubrey.
UUP: Gareth Martin.
Alliance: Jemima Higgins.
Green:Ellen Murray.
Workers Party: Conor Campbell.

All the outgoing MLAs (five Sinn Féin and one SDLP) are standing for re-election.
Sinn Féin polled over 70% but “only” 54% in 2015.
The one certainty is that Gerry Carroll who polled 6,800 votes will be elected and have a surplus to transfer.
The combined unionist vote is unlikely to add up to a quota.
If Carroll takes a seat, then it means one outgoing MLA loses out. The SDLP vote (allowing for an Eastwood bounce) is probably just over 4,000 votes. With transfers from Carroll who is likely to top the poll, Alex Attwood should make it.
So Sinn Féin are likely to lose a seat here. Just which one of their MLAs will be re-cycled to earn the average industrial wage in another part of the Sinn Féin machine is open question…but Sheehan has the weakest “territory” and vote management has been adjusted. My own feeling is that Fra McCann will lose out.
Certainly Sinn Féin are throwing everything into the campaign, reminding the voters that all five candidates are ex republican prisoners but I am not entirely sure that even the Felons Club are interested.
Of more immediate concern is Welfare cuts (an issue that SF sent back to Westminster), cuts to services such as Day Centres for vulnerable people (SDLP and PBP have been more consistent protestors than SF) and the general neglect of the area.
Prediction…Sinn Féin 4, SDLP 1, PBP 1……and a lot of alleged intimidation at polling stations.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Profile: North Belfast

Posted on May 2, 2016 by fitzjameshorse

Candidates:
DUP: Nelson McCausland. Paula Bradley. WIlliam Humphrey.
UUP: Rev Lesley Carroll.
Sinn Féin: Caral Ni Chuilín. Gerry Kelly.
SDLP: Nichola Mallon.
Workers Party: Gemma Weir.
TUV: John Miller.
Green: Malachai O’Hara.
UKIP: Kenneth Boyle.
PBP: Fiona Ferguson.
PUP: Billy Hutchinson.
Alliance: Nuala McAllister.
Labour Representation: Abdo Thabeth.
Independent: Fra Hughes.
Independent: Geoff Dowey.
INdependent: Tom Burns.

The 2011 breakdown was three DUP, two Sinn Féin and one SDLP. In 2011, SF had three candidates and in 2015 they spoofed about actually winning the seat at Westminster. Chastened they are only fielding the two outgoing MLAs. They will of course be re-elected.
A major surprise to see Rev Lesley Carroll standing as a UUP candidate. I am not a big fan of ministers of religion being actively involved in politics. Being involved in the community, might bring in some additional support.
SDLP are safe. NIchola Mallon was a popular Mayor and she will be able to hold Alban Magennis support and add to it. There will also be a surplus of SF votes as well as People Before Profit and Workers Party.
DUP….have two safe quotas…their third candidate will be at the mercy of transfers.
Mal O’Hara is a contributor to Slugger O’Toole….Nuff said.
And the Alliance candidate…I wont even mention.

Prediction….DUP 2, SF 2, SDLP 1….and UUP 1.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Profile: East Antrim

Posted on May 2, 2016 by fitzjameshorse

Candidates:
DUP: Alastair Ross. David Hilditch. Gordon Lyons.
UUP: Roy Beggs. John Stewart. Maureen Morrow.
Alliance: Stewart Dickson. Danny Donnelly.
Sinn Féin: Oliver McMullan.
SDLP: Margaret Anne McKillop.
TUV: Ruth Wilson.
UKIP: Noel Jordan.
PUP: Jim McCaw.
Green: Dawn Patterson.
Labour Alternative: Conor Sheridan.

Normally thought of as a DUP stronghold but the emergence of fringe unionist parties threatens DUP dominance. The DUP cause is not helped by Sammy Wilson MP being confined to Westminster. The decline of the DUP from just below half the vote (2011) to 36% will bother them. Understandably, they are only fielding their three outgoing MLAs.
UUP saw their vote share rise to around 20% but are optimistically fielding two other candidates alongside Roy Beggs Junior.
With East Antrim Catholics/nationalists traditionally preferring a low profile, Alliance have tended to do well here. Stewart Dickson, outgoing MLA has a running mate but realistically Alliance taking two seats here depends on the nationalists being eliminated and transferring to the least bad alternative.
Oliver McMullan defends SF seat and Margaret Anne McKillop is representing SDLP.

In Norn Iron terms, there is not a lot of difference between TUV and UKIP and based on 2015 Westminster figures, there is a quota to the right of DUP. UKIP had the advantage last year but it seems to have imploded with Henry Reilly leaving UKIP for TUV and David McNarry leaving Politics. TUV also have an advantage in specifically Norn Iron terms.

Prediction….DUP 2, UUP 1, Alliance 1, TUV 1…..sixth seat will be played thru the transfers and DUP, Alliance, Sinn Féin and hopefully SDLP are in the mix.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments

Gerry And The N Word

Posted on May 2, 2016 by fitzjameshorse

It is ironic that I am still drafting a post on Anti Semitism and the Labour Party. It s possible to “do nuance” in a longish blog, an essay, a dissertation and a book. Nuance is not possible in Twitter. All you get is 140 characters . Twitter is a form ofgraffiti.

What happened last night?

Seemingly, Gerry Adams was watching “Django-Unchained” a movie about Slavery in the United States. And he reaches for his ipad to tweet …in very blunt terms…that the experience was same as the Catholic experience in Ballymurphy, a Belfast housing estate built in early 1950s.

Gerry Adams lived in Ballymurphy. So did I (from 1970 to 1979). He and I both know that despite the problems pre-dating the Troubles….and despite incidents like the Ballymurphy Massacre (August 1971) ….Ballymurphy was NOT Birmingham, Alabama. Lets get that clear.

You have seen the tweet and its follow up which suggests that Gerry Adams and his army of Twitter followers saw no problem with it. No point in reproducing it in this post…once was enough….but it was deleted some twenty minutes after it as first posted. Understandably it caused outrage and anger.

How can people react to this? Well most nationalists, including ordinary decent Sinn Féin members and supporters will be as outraged as I am. There are perhaps two alternative reactions….some SF supporters might brazen it out “Gerry saying it as it is” and actually agreeing with him. Some might see a context and try to spin out the nuance.

But really the point is if you can say something in 140 characters on Twitter and you have to make a speech to defend it, then you should not have said it in the first place.

Therefore the Sinn Fëin spinners are having a bad day. Either they say “the Party Leader was absolutely right” OR they say “well lets put this in context”. Neither works.

Gerry Adams has issued a non-apology….IF anyone was offended, he is sorry. Its the mode of apology in the 21st century putting an onus on those offended rather than Gerry Adams.

This is post-Long Kesh Gerry Adams who his supporters liken to a post Robin Island Nelson Mandela.It is a comparison that Adams likes. Gerry Adams is no Nelson Mandela. Gerry Adams is no Rosa Parks. To some extent, we have had to listen to the bombast. But he condemns himself when he pressed the “send” button and further condemns himself by blandly telling us he was a founding member of the Civil Rights Association.

Perhaps “Django Unchained” was a bad choice for late night viewing. Maybe a relaxing Disney movie….”Pinnochio” perhaps.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | 1 Comment

Gerry Adams…Statesman?

Posted on May 2, 2016 by fitzjameshorse

So …Gerry Adams….Asset or Liability?

image

image

How is it that Gerry Adams, the Statesman, the Visionary and allegedly friend of Nelson Mandela, thought it was appropriate to tweet as above? How is it that eleven minutes after the first tweet, he compounds this with a second tweet.

Both tweets have now been deleted but it will be interesting to see how Sinn Féin try to spin this one away.

The worrying thing is that these tweets were actually “liked” by some of Mr Adams followers.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | 4 Comments