David McNarry MLA (UKIP)

Todays news that David McNarry MLA for Strangford, thrown out of the UUP some months ago has joined UKIP (the British-based United Kingdom Independence Party) comes as a surprise…and yet it shouldnt.

McNarry now well into his 60s is a UUP veteran who has always been in and around the top of Unionism (his senior position in Orange Order was certainly a help) yet he always looked over-promoted, not least by himself.

UUP have two seats in Strangford…..but veteran McNarry has been playing second fiddle to newcomer Mike Nesbitt, who earlier this year became Party Leader. Earlier this year Nesbitt sacked traditionalist McNarry for advocating a form of unity with DUP. Last week Nesbitt sacked his Deputy Leader for advocating the exact opposite. In other words Party Leader Mike Nesbitt is the weakest link in the UUP. And is single-handedly tearing his own Party apart.

He has managed to get rid of Party veteran “Lord” Ken Magennis….for clearly homophobic remarks. Entirely understandable but having the effect of alienating “traditionalists”.

Nesbitt is a curiousity. Identifiably an “English”-type Conservative, he briefly seemed likely to take the Westminster Strangford seat in May 2010. This was on the basis of the Tory-UUP coalition briefly riding high and the scandal involving Iris Robinson DUP MP for Strangford. And of course Nesbitt, well known as a TV News anchor seemed media savvy and personable.

Actually he has proved a media disaster and comes across as controlling and tetchy. His meteoric rise within UUP was complete when he became Leader in March 2012. And his destruction of that Party began right away.

UKIP…..as the name United Kingdom Independence Party suggests….is essentially a Party rooted in the 1960s……a party which believes Britain is under threat from the whole European Project. Actually they are right about that……but come across as ex-Tory golf club bores with a mixed record on Race. In other words an ideal Party for disgruntled UUP people who think that things were much better for them in the 1960s. An English version of the Tea Party.

UKIP has two or three seats in the European Parliament where their brand of Europhobia resonates with Middle England and they are helped by proportional representation, multi-seat constituencies and low turn outs in European elections. They have two or three members of the “House of Lords”, surprisingly few councillors and no Members of Parliament, although they are perhaps a more natural home for disaffected right wing Tories.

So in UKIP terms, David McNarry MLA…….a member of the Stormont ASsembly is quite a catch. So much so that Party Leader Nigel Farage…..a golf club, right-winger straight from Central Casting is making an appearance at Stormont tomorrow to welcome his new recruit. I have to confess that I actually like Nigel Farage. He is a right wing version of ……me.

So the UUP membership, support and vote wil actually split even more than was thought. The UUP in terminal decline but clearly the DUP, Alliance, Conservatives and UKIP wont be the only beneficiaries. Clearly UUP members are jumping ship to their favourite lifeboat.

Which makes the Alliance defectors Hamilton, Parsley and Bradshaw just a little uncomfortable. Ideologically they are “Conservatives” but the clear market leader in the so-called middle ground is the Alliance Party and they are more electable in that Party…….but Alliance traditionalists should be looking at them with some suspicion.

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President Romney?

It is a strange choice.

President Obama is a hopeless advocate for a lot of things I believe. Governor Romney has just demonstrated that he is a capable advocate for everything I despise.

It will therefore be a closer election than we previously thought, although whether one, poorly moderated Debate can do anything more than make Americans realise how even it is…….thats a good question.

Frankly we put too much faith in President Obama. Well to be fair to myself…..I didnt put that much faith in him. He is after all the President of the United States of America and it follows that he will act in the interests of USA. Despite the fact that too many Americans believe that their President is “Leader of the Free World”……frankly he isnt.

So all those Europeans (and we prefer Democrats because we think Republicans are mad) who were giving Obama approval ratings of 80% were simply insane……or caught up in the “history” of it all. Even Americans ……..including honourably Senator John McCain ……were caught up in it all.

But Europeans really lost the run of themselves when Obama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for………er……..being President Obama.

Really only justifiable fear of Romney is the only thing which can prevent Obama losing this Election and suffering the disgrace of being a one-term President. Those who sought to represent would deserve better. Obama wouuld not.

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Dear Diary….

It looks like the next three or four months is going to be an extremely busy time…..there a lot of family stuff going on ……..birthdays, wedding and other anniversaries (including our own……..30 years) and will culminate in the birth of our fourth grndchild around Christmas time.

In between of course is the SDLP Conference in Armagh (all being well I will be there) and possibly the Mid Ulster by-election will take place in late January so I hope to be on the ground in Cookstown, Coalisland and Magherafelt (the joy of having a bus pass!)…exotic locations all.

And in early February, I should be in an even more exotic location. And I will need to do a lot of preperation work for that.

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Basil McCrea MLA…….Going Conservative

I cannot really take Basil McCrea MLA seriously. He never seems to actually live up to the billing of a genuine “liberal” unionist….not that I believe they exist.

So the news item on TV tonight where he addresses the question of John McCallister’s sacking. ……..was not significant because of what he said about McCallister……the really significant fact was that it was an event organised by the Lagan Valley Branch of the Norn Iron Conservatives. Is he going to jump ship?

And good to see our old friend Felicity Houston….mother of local Tory Boy, Alex Houston. Mrs Houston was until recently the Appointments Commissioner for Norn Iron…..at the top table along with Basil McCrea.

 

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(Jimmy) Savile Inquiry

There are many uncomfortable aspects to the allegations surrounding Jimmy Savile which have been emerging in the past 48 hours. The first is that Jimmy Savile is dead and neither he or his alleged victims will get any Justice.

Jimmy Savile was the first person to introduce Top of The Pops…….7.30pm every Thursday night. And for some years TOTP was introduced on a weekly rota with four of the BBCs “Disc Jockeys”. The others were Pete Murray (an unsuccessful actor who had presented the Six Five Special, a late 1950s “pop programme), Alan Freeman who had yet to develop his flamboyant persona and David Jacobs from Juke Box Jury, a BBC”suit” who went on to Come Dancing and Any Questions.

Savile was at that time the cutting edge, coming from the north of England……a former miner, wrestler and dance hall DJ. Back in the day………I was a pop music fanatic. Savile was part of that……..the Beatles, the Rolling Stones, the Hollies, the Kinks, the Who, Hermans Hermits, the Animals………and it was 1964 after all, I was a first year in a Belfast Grammar School, spending Sunday listening to Savile present Savilles Travels on the Radio……which he presemted from his caravan and listening to Savile on Radio Luxembourg.

You had to be there. Another generation of ex-pirate DJs swarmed into Radio 1 when it started in 1967…….yes I was up at the crack of dawn to listen to Tony Blackburn introduce the first ever record played on Radio 1……….and as anyone who has ever taken part in a Pub Quiz will know it was “Flowers In The Rain” by the Move.

When it became clear that even a Peter Pan figure like Jimmy Savile was no longer credible in terms of “pop music”, he moved into TV presenting, notably “Jim’ll Fix It” where he arranged for youngsters to fulfil some kind of dream.

An eccentric figure ………long white hair, jewelry, gold track suit, cigar………and shameless self publicist, his in your face presenting style was made acceptable because of his charity work. Before dying last year, he had certainly raised tens of millions for good causes, many thru running marathons. Perhaps more impressively he used to work as an unpaid hospital porter in Leeds, his home city and at Broadmoor, a hospital for the criminally insane.

Indeed he was knighted by both the Queen of England and Pope John Paul II. His persona was of a rather ordinary person but he was actually very intelligent and a member of MENSA. The eccentricities were regarded as harmless. He lived with his aged mother (the Duchess) in an ordinary terraced house in Leeds. He was a regular Church-goer and yet boasted of his womanising in later life. A life-long bachelor, I recall that there was some surprise when he became engaged to a much younger blonde singer in a 1970s pop group.

In retrospect his references to “crumpet” (pretty girls) is tacky but in perhaps the most telling commentary on the current controversy……cerebral DJ Paul Gambaccini recalls the time frame in which Jimmy Savile lived and worked. Gambaccini talks of the twenty-five year period before AIDS when attitudes to sexuality changed…..everyone says Gambaccini had their own “thing”. And Savile was one such person. His thing was young girls.

Gambaccini who believes the allegations and talks of his own inability to talk to Savile about it……thru fear of Saviles influence at the BBC has a point.

Even if Belfast was maybe ten to fifteen years behind Swinging London……….as Philip Larkin wrote that “sex began in 1963” and I suppose Gambaccini is right that in that twenty-five years between 1963 and 1988 or thereabouts, there was a lot of sexual freedom…….certainly a more permissive attitude. …in movies, TV, personal behaviour.

There is probably more sex around now than in the 1960s or 1970s but the emphasis is now on empowerment and certainly no couting technique that involves calling a young woman “crumpet” is likely to succeed.

The last twenty years or so, Jimmy Savile was less seen on TV……and was rather a relic of a by-gone age with attitudes to match. His performance in a Louis Theroux documentary showed more of his eccentricity……he still kept his dead mothers clothes, he spoke a little about rumours of his sexual interest in young girls. His image was dented somewhat by that documentary……the eccentricity became slightly sinister.

And this appears to be the case. Allegations, some centred on a  now closed Young Offenders Institute for Girls which he visited regularly have surfaced. The Police investigated and interviewd Savile under caution in 2007. There were no charges.

More tellingly BBC staff have admitted to knowing about the rumours and more tellingly a former producer has said that he knows that Savile shared a room in a seedy hotel with a girl at most 12 years of age. When tackled on this Savile claimed he was too powerful for the BBC. The BBC needed him.

Its a complex story. The eccentricity, the physical fitness and undercurrent of Menace, the charity work (penace perhaps?), sexual attitudes then and now, the BBC attitude…………and tabloid journalism. All will seemingly be revealed on a ITV documentary “The Other Side of Jimmy Savile”.

And……..of course Jimmy Savile died in 2011. There is no Justice for anyone in this story.

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New Blogger

Good to see that “Football Cliches” a good friend of this Blog has now strted his own Blog. Check it out on:

http://footballcliches.wordpress.com/

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“Golf Is A Good Walk Spoiled” Mark Twain

This Ryder Cup seems endless.

I share Mark Twain’s opinion of Golf. I have never played it and I doubt I ever will.

It just seemed to be a sport which even in the black and white 1960s seemed very dull. Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus, Gary Player, Sam Sneed I just never had any time for it all. Occasional moments of supporting Christy O’Connor before he needed to be called Christy O’Connor “senior” to distinguish him from Christy O’Connor “junior”………and I think even “Junior” is long retired.

It seemed more casual in the 1960s. It was always raining and perennial British hope Neil Coles was always smoking a cigarette. Are they allowed to do that now?

Nor do I buy into all this Rory and GMac stuff.

I think its just that golf club types look like……….golf club types. Captains Day. Ladies Day. And casual racism and anti-semitism are not my scene.

Nor all that pro-celebrity crap…………Terry Wogan, Bruce Forsyth, Ronnie Corbett, Jimmy Tarbuck.

And the Ryder Cup. I remember a time when it was USA versus Britain and Ireland………and USA routinely won.

Now of course it is USA PGA Tour versus European PGA Tour. But of course that inhibits Chauvism…………so it has to be USA, a place which exists………against Europe which of course kinda exists. I dont know if there are any Norwegian, Icelandic or Serb golfers at this level………but how can the “European Flag and Anthem” represent them.

So it is a difficult choice.

I dont like Golf. I detest Europe.

So…………..Go USA!!!!!

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Digital Sausage Roll Hashtag

1.40pm……Friday. Not so much a Digital Lunch here on “Keeping An Eye On The Czar Of Russia”…..more a very real sausage roll and a mug of tea.

Strangely enough as its Friday…..over on Slugger O’Toole, there is a Digital Lunch going on. And even more strangely the subject matter is “Systems Crashing”. At 1pm, my system “crashed”……well basically the Electricity expired and I had to walk to the corner shop and buy £10 of Electricity……..and a sausage roll (65p) and a pack of Cadburys Chocolate Biccys (£1.39).

These Digital Lunches have been going on Slugger for about two months. I watched the first (?) one……..thats the one where Quentin Oliver got all agitated about “innocent money, chocolate money, Quaker money”. I choked with laughter and with that Fridays sausage roll.

I have not watched any since. Although a couple of weeks ago Mick Fealty……..ya old tease ya……..mentioned on Politics.ie that I had been mentioned on a Digital Lunch. I resisted the temptation to find out what was said. I hope it was not flattering.

So curiously today…..there is a comment (11.43am) from Mick Fealty himself on a thread he started (10.25am) where he wonders why these Digital Lunch threads attract so few comments. As of 1.53 pm it is the only comment on the thread. You will recall that last night, I noted that four of Sluggers six threads posted yesterday had no comments at all……and a fifth thread had just two comments.

So although the Digital Lunch threads have never really taken off……..Mick mentions this today. But I wonder if this is linked to a wider malaise at Slugger O’Toole.

I was tempted to post a comment as to why I thought that the Digital threads get such little response but even the most benign comment would be unlikely to pass moderation. Mick wonders if these Digital Lunches are too “obtuse”.

Just for the craic, I watched about a minute of todays Lunch. A woman introducing herself as a former lecturer in Media Studies and now self employed said something about 2012 and 2000 having a lot in common (a lot of gloom around) and  youngish man said something about researching various End is Nigh predictions had found that these predictions go back a very long way.

I didnt actually watch past that point. It just did not seem important enough. Tinternet users discussing Tinternet leaves me cold. I have a Computer on my desk. I have an ipad which I bought two months ago and I havent actually used it in about a month. I do not own a mobile phone. (yes there is one …a very basic one….previously owned by my wife at the bottom of my desk but I have not used it since March 2011). I am a techno-phobe and I just do not buy into the notion that Tinternet users are especially gifted political analysts. It is just Nerdiness……..and while not being especially proficent in Tinternet nerdiness, I am much more gifted in other forms of Nerdiness………18th century Cavalry tactics being a case in point.

Tinternet and Blogging is therefore nothing more than a means to an end. I am interested in politics. I like to blog about politics, especially when it overlaps with History. I certainly dont take myself seriously and while I readily accept there is a place for Tinternet in Politics…….the very real contribution it can make is undermined by those who over-state it.

The Digital Lunch threads do not attract much interest. Why not. Well that nerdiness is a barrier. And the mutual back-slapping ……not my scene.

But to be honest, the Digital Lunch threads cannot be disconnected from (say) the Great Assets Capital Transfer threads of February/March 2011. Leaving aside Rowntree and Stratagem involvement, these threads just not take off…..they failed to ignite.

And as I have mentioned some cerebral Slugger threads have failed to ignite. I will of course not make any reference to the “Space” threads which are simply the vanity of one man indulged by people who should know better.

The simple truth about Slugger is that cerebral threads do not “do” well. Controversial threads which lead to……..and are steered towards sectarian bun fights are the staple of Slugger O’Toole and this is a long way from the wikipedia entry.

Bemoaning the fact that Digital Lunches, Capital Assets Transfer and “sensible” threads get little response is a bit like the Sun Newspaper scratching its head and wondering why nobody reads its editorials. Well people rarely get past the topless girls and celebrity chit chat in The Sun………and Sluggerites rarely get past the sectarian bun fight, kindly provided for them.

While I welcome the navel gazing on Slugger, I think its too little, too late.

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I Think I See Whats Happening Here

Hmmmm………Slugger O’Toole publishes a post referencing Newton Emersons reaction to THAT opinion poll. It is a particuarly fanciful analysis by Emerson (for whom I have never cared) and the comparatively new Sluggerite “Better Together”.

Both “Better Together” and Emerson………Id call him the “peerless Newt” but I have never liked him……..envisage a three party state……DUP, Sinn Fein and you guessed it…the Allaince Party. Meanwhile over on his own Blog, Ian Parsley (I cant call him “peerless” either) is predicting great things for… er the Alliance Party. There is a certain momementum building up behind a poll that looks (to serious analysts) a bit “iffy”.

All Opinion Polls carry a health warning……and THAT poll is downright toxic. Of course we all know the default position with a bad poll rating “This is not what we are hearing on the doorstep” said the Liberal Democrats this week. And every other week. Certainly the SDLP would say the same. But frankly with more credibility.

Yet is more to follow? Think on this…….There is no date set (as far as I know) for the Mid Ulster Westminster Election……

But lets have a look at some past figures:

2010 Westminster….SF 52%……DUP 15%….SDLP 14%…..UUP 11%….TUV 7%….AP1%

2011 Assembly…….SF 49%…..DUP 17%….SDLP 15%……UUP 10%……TUV 5%…..AP1%.

There is a certain pattern here. Nationalists have 65% of the vote. Unionists have 33%…..roughly.

For most people, the by-election is a dead rubber. The difficult thing will be to get people to vote at all. The question mark is over whether UUP will actually field a candidate at all….. but troubles in the UUP, Sandra Overend being less than stellar and the likely outcome is that the UUP vote would collapse to maybe 5%. Where would it go? Id reckon 3:2 to DUP/Alliance……and DUP would pick up maybe another 2% from TUV. Of course if UUP did not stand at all that UUP vote might go say 6:4 to UUP/Alliance.

My take (and its early days) that DUP would take maybe 22%-25% of the votes.

Where does that leave nationalists……..well can any candidate match Martin McGuinness or will apathy cost nationalist some votes……and in percentage terms helping others.

In order to justify, their faith in THAT poll, those hyping it need Alliance to do well in Mid Ulster. And a lot depends on whether a UUP candidate atands and whether Alliance can run a “celebrity” like er Harry Hamilton, Paula Bradshaw or………Ian Parsley. Somebody should ask him if he would throw his hat in the ring or perhaps Mrs Parsleys hat into the ring………although by the time the election is held, he might have joined the Greens or UKIP.

But there IS a scenario……not a typical one……………where the Alliance could get 6% of the vote in a west of the Bann constituency. Would that bother SDLP? It shouldnt. It is part of a re-allignment in unionism and little or nothing to do with the “middle” ground.

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The Myth Of Shared History?

A few years ago, there was some controversy over either the 60th Anniversary of “D Day” in 2004. Or maybe it was about the 60th Anniversary of the End of World War Two……..Maybe it was both. Anyway these are jamborees where serious BBC journos are dispatched to Normandy or Arnheim or wherever along with British Legion veterans to commemorate this type of event.

And the Great and the Good are there……was it Bush, Bliar, Sarkozy……..maybe even the “Queen” and folks from Belgium, Netherlands, Poland. But when was this……..er 2004? 2005? Why not invite the Germans? After all they were there too and its shared history after all.

Of course the British Legion chaps moaned into their elaborate handlebar moustaches…………Inviting Jerry? The Bosch???? And the British tabloids joined in………it was of course political correctness gone maaaaaaaad.

Which is what Conflict Resolution actually is. Take this Decade of Centenaries.

Obviously we all share History. But to what extent is History “inclusive” and “exclusive”. The Conflict Resolutionists have set up this decade as The Decade of Centenaries. It is my belief that they have compromised historical integrity……..To some extent (community cohesion or avoidance of violence) this is understandable, even laudable. To do so to create a new “smiley face” narrative for Norn Iron is just wrong.

Some time ago (March 2011), at another Conflict Resolutionist event…….artists, poets writers bloodied the noses of the do-gooders. They were not going to sacrifice their artistic integrity to create a good news narrative about Norn Iron. Their discipline is to observe what they see. It is not about Propaganda. It would be nice if historians felt the same.

The Ulster Covenant Parade…….scheduled to take place in Belfast on Saturday……is an event in our so called “shared history”. Despite the best efforts of the Conflict Resolutionists…..BBC, UTV……the nationalist community (especially along the route) is not over-enthusiastic.

More tellingly perhaps the unionist community shows no great enthusiasm for sharing it. It is THEIR EVENT. Their DAY.

The Parade goes ahed of cours……….with minimal restriction. No “supporters” will be allowed to pass St Patricks Church and the bands will be required to play hymns. The “Residents Protest” will be not number more than 150 people.

Despite the bad behaviour of Orangemen this year, they were safe in the knowledge that there would be no meaningful restriction…….the Centenary is literally a “once in a hundred years” event, the numbers are too great, the implied violence too real………in that sense it has to go ahead.

And yet there is a certain authenticity to it all. The commemorates the declaration of 500,000 unionists signing…………allegedly in some cases with their blood………this solemn covenant…….with the threat of violence if the British Government ignored their wishes. On Saturday half that number will turn out to parade or watch.

And of course back in 1912, no unionist had to rely on a Parades Commission to “dictate” how and when they walked what they still call The Queens Highway. Yet a precedent has been set which will not be lost on Catholic residents thru Norn Iron. Kick-the-Pope bands will be required to mind their manners passing Catholic churches.

Saturday seems a  hollow victory for Unionism. And a crushing defeat for Conflict Resolution.

 

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