Westminster Election 2015: North Belfast

Posted on May 14, 2015 by fitzjameshorse

The Results:

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North Belfast was nasty on so many levels. An Electoral Pact between DUP and UUP to bolster Nigel Dodds in a seat that the DUP was concerned would be lost to unionism. Indeed there was a second and lesser reported…but probably more shameful pact. The Conservative Party did not field a candidate …a clear nod of approval to potential coalition partners DUP. And a complete abandonment of “neutrality” by the Norn Iron Office.

Overtures by Sinn Féin to SDLP to let Gerry Kelly have a free run were understandably and properly rejected. Sinn Féin actually compounded the tribalism by circulating a leaflet that was downright sectarian in tone…appealing to Voters on the grounds of Demographics. This in the constituency where Protestant leaders of the 1798 Rebellion…Henry Joy McCracken and William Drennan are buried…was shameful.

Worse…from a Sinn Féin perspective, it failed miserably. While Dodds added UUP votes into his column, Gerry Kelly failed to raise the Sinn Féin percentage. It is likely that some “soft” UUP voters were turned off by the naked sectarianism of an electoral pact and voted Alliance.

For SDLP, it was a bad day. Certainly squeezed by Sinn Féin. But people just didnt vote.

I have a lot of time for Alban Maginness but I think this was one election too far for a man even older than me. And it would be a mistake to run him in 2016. Did he suffer by being one of the older generation of SDLP MLAs who were absent for the Equal Marriage Debate and Vote a few weeks ago? Yes I think so.

Nichola Mallon would in my view have been a better candidate. As the position of Mayor of Belfast is increasingly non-partisan, being nominated as a candidate before her very successful Mayoral term was over would have been inappropriate. There may have been other good reasons. But I hope Nichola is on the SDLP ticket next year.

The speech made by Nigel Dodds was a throwback to the worst of DUP in the 1970s and 1980s. He referred with some passion to a dirty campaign by Sinn Féin, including bringing a disabled child into the discourse. Whether or not, Dodds was justified in being angry, I dont know. But what I could clearly see was that this was very, very personal.

It was a vexation. DUP and Sinn Féin seem bound together in sheer unadulterated hatred. Behind every feel-good event and feel-good photo opportunity, with smiling Peter Robinson and smiling Martin McGuinness is this cess pit of hatred.

This Farce does not deserve to succeed.

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Westminster Election 2015: Fermanagh-South Tyrone

Posted on May 14, 2015 by fitzjameshorse

The Result:

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A surprise. Even a shock.

In 2010, Sinn Féin won with a majority of just four votes. Tactical voting by SDLP voters saw them defeat a unionist “unity” candidate.  I was actually in London for the 2010 Results, flying out just after voting. By lunch time on Friday, there had been overnight recounts and I only knew the result about 3.30pm, in an Internet cafe in Queensway.

Although I would have voted SDLP in 2010, I felt a sense of relief that Michelle Gildernew had defeated a pan-unionist pact.

So why was it that….last week….. at 6.30am on a train with with wifi connexion, I was completely indifferent to the fact that Tom Elliott (UUP) had just defeated Michelle Gildernew by over 500 votes. After all, UUP and DUP had entered into a blatant sectarian pact.

Worse “Lord” Morrow of DUP had been dismissive of Michelle Gildernew as the “girl from the Brantry”.

In part, the difference between 2010 and 2015 is that I am actually a member of SDLP. But I dont think it entirely explains it. After all, fewer people voted SDLP (John Coyle) than voted SDLP (Fearghal McKinney) in 2010.

A lot of nationalist voters stayed at home. They were indifferent to the result. Phil Flanagan MLA of Sinn Féin have resorted to blaming the SDLP for standing. An odd stance, particuarly as Phil was (to his credit) unhappy at online bullying of SDLP candidate, John Coyle.

The online bullying continued after the Election.

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Barry Doherty…a Sinn Féin councillor ….has since apologised for this Facebook post.

But Fermanagh-South Tyrone shows up one Sinn Féin problem….loss of manners. And a contempt for those standing for SDLP and people voting SDLP. Worth remembering when they want to “borrow a vote”.

And Fermanagh-South Tyrone shows up another Sinn Féin problem. Lack of political awareness. They were in Fantasy Land. Michelle Gildernew had won by just four votes against a single unionist candidate in 2010. The SDLP had not polled well. The candidate Fearghal McKinney deemed to be a celebrity (TV journalist) imported from Belfast.I

Sinn Féin thought that with better Demographics in 2015, Michelle Gildernew was safe. She lost by over 500 votes. Nationalists did not show up at the polling booth. For public consumption, Sinn Féin will be blaming SDLP but really their internal post-mortem wont mention SDLP.

Incumbency is a big asset. Sinn Féin have lost it. And wont be regaining that seat for a long long time. Nationalist voters will be free to vote, without the call to tribal loyalty.

What about 2016? Well, a look at the 2015 figures would say three Sinn Féin seats and three unionist. But that doesnt take account of those non-voters, loaned votes, the loss of Sinn Féin invincibility, the dignity of John Coyle, the transfer potential of Green and Alliance votes and the 2014 Council Election results which were a welcome piece of good news for SDLP.

This is a constituency I am extremely optimistic about. No doubt tweets and Facebook posts showing the nastier side of Sinn Féin will feature strongly at Council meetings, newspaper reports and hopefully in election literature next year.

Sinn Féin lost Fermanagh-South Tyrone….ironically …thru Abstention. Their principle on not attending Westminster backfired against an Electorate who decided to abstain. Policy (Welfare Cuts) played a part. But there was an arrogance….a swagger. SF simply miscalculated. For years they have not made mistakes or did not get punished for those they did make. In 2015, they stopped being lucky.

Hubris. Karma. Schadenfreude.

What goes round comes round.

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Westminster Election 2015: East Derry

Posted on May 14, 2015 by fitzjameshorse

The Results:

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Easy win for Gregory Campbell and DUP. Campbell is controversial. Increasingly playing to the loyalist gallery. Certainly three safe seats for DUP. The UUP clearly have a quota but the seat is currently held by an Independent Unionist.

Two safe nationalist quotas. But SDLP might be just a little concerned but there was little motivation for nationalists to get out to vote for Gerry Mullan.

With John Dallat (68) not likely to stand in 2016, there might well be a SDLP co-option before the Assembly Election. The choice will be interesting.

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Westminster Election 2015: Foyle

Posted on May 14, 2015 by fitzjameshorse

The Results:

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There has been hype for years that Sinn Féin are closing in on the SDLP in Derry. But it was all smoke and mirrors. Mark Durkan scored an easy win. The margin suggests that SDLP will comfortably retain three Assembly seats and Sinn Féin will take two seats. There is a unionist quota and DUP likely to retain the seat.

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Westminster Election 2015: Strangford

Posted on May 14, 2015 by fitzjameshorse

The Results:

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A constituency where DUP votes are weighed, rather than counted. An easy win but the collapse of the UUP vote (Mike Nesbitt fought Strangford for UUP-Tories) collapsed and votes shed to UKIP, Alliance and Conservatives.

In 2016, DUP are likely to retain three seats in tbe Assembly. Alliance will retain their seat. UUP will retain their seat.

The sixth seat…the combination of UKIP (David McNarry holds a seat here), TUV and Tory, should be enough to hold off SDLP challenge. Joe Boyle did well here. But nationalists under-perform, in part because the nationalists are spread thinly in pockets around the constituency.

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Westminster Election 2015: Mid Ulster

Posted on May 13, 2015 by fitzjameshorse

The Results.

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An easy victory for Sinn Féin and little here to upset the narrative for 2016. No change. Sinn Féin will take three seats, UUP, DUP and SDLP one each. Interesting that there is clear blue water between Sandra Overend and Ian McCrea. It certainly looks like this is a place where TUV can chip away at DUP. A respectable showing by UKIP, Alliance and Workers Party.

From a SDLP perspective, the Party will be glad to have blooded Malachy Quinn, already a councillor in the Coalisland end of the constituency.

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Westminster Election 2015: East Belfast

Posted on May 13, 2015 by fitzjameshorse

The Results.

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It was of course a two-horse race. Right and proper that other parties stood. Democracy is about Choice. The political parties can choose to stand. The Voters (and it is about the Voters) have the choice to vote or not to vote.

When I went into the Kings Hall for four Belfast Counts it was about 10.30pm. At that stage, ballots were still in the boxes but there were folks from DUP and Alliance around. The clue was their attitude. For both, it was “wait and see” but DUP seemed to think the glass was “half full” and Alliance seemed to think that the glass was “half-empty”. One Alliance member was pretty candid. Naomi Long had lost.

Thru the night, there was some talk that a “box” had been good for one or the other. But there was never any real feeling that it would be on a knife-edge.

It is a funny thing. Everything seemed very civilised. But all turned a bit nasty with the Declaration. Much has been made of the lack of grace in Gavin Robinson’s speech. Most DUP workers were just too triumphalist. There were honourable exceptions.

Beneath the veneer of nice dark suits and well groomed hair…the preppiness, the look of young Christians, the DUP youth are extremely nasty.

Most people from other parties…SDLP and Alliance near me were just shaking their heads.

Anything in the air for for 2016? Well LetsGetAlongerists are spreading the notion that it is a simple 3-3 split between DUP and Alliance.

But this.azy narrative takes no account of the Pact between DUP, UUP, TUV and other loyalist fringe. Nor does it take account of Alliance appealing for other parties to lend votes. Surely these are votes that the highly moral Alliance Party intend to repay?

I prefer to think of it as a certain two for DUP and Alliance. Both would be foolish to think a third seat is inevitable. Other results showed that the UUP is in a revival and there is I think enough elbow room between DUP and Alliance for UUP to hold their seat.

The sixth seat? It all depends on where the surplus and transferred votes go. The Green Party, TUV, DUP and Alliance will all be in the mix.

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Westminster Election 2015: West Tyrone

Posted on May 12, 2015 by fitzjameshorse

First the results.

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In this seat, Pat Doherty veteran Sinn Féin MP was returned fairly easily but he did lose a lot of votes. His chief asset was that he was the Incumbent and that is always an asset. But this was also an election which was as much about generation as anything else. Doherty (68) looked like a man who would rather be somewhere else than in West Tyrone. Well ….he lives in County Donegal.

On the face of it, little changes can be anticipated in 2016. I am not so sure that I am convinced of the easy analysis that this is going to produce three Sinn Féin seats, one DUP, one UUP and one SDLP.

image Daniel McCrossan

I always believe that the sixth seat in any constituency is the tricky one. So I tend to go beyond the stark figures to whats happening on the ground. There are key differences between Westminster 2015 and Assembly 2016.

For a start, we cant predict the issues that will be prominent next year. What we do know is that this is a six seat constituency where members are elected on Proportional Representation.

So I tend to see West Tyrone as two Sinn Féin and one each for DUP, UUP and SDLP. And the sixth seat is up for grabs. There are over 2,000 possible minor party votes to be transferred from the figures above. Do Alliance, Green and “Cannabis” votes break more for SDLP than Sinn Féin?

I dont know the answer. I just say it is a fighting chance.

To fully understand the SDLP rise in West Tyrone, it is necessary to understand that this is the best result for SDLP since 2001, when Brid Rodgers was the candidate for Westminster. It is also necessary to understand the “Deeny Factor”, the “McMenamin Factor” and vote management chaos in 2007, when three SDLP candidates polled enough for a quota but somehow managed not to have anyone elected.

I first saw Daniel making a speech at the 2011 SDLP Conference. His Strabane Branch won (actually shared) the SDLP Award for Achievement. He made a speech …amazingly confident for a young man. But tellingly his speech pointed out that the word on the Strabane doorsteps was that the people had not left the SDLP. “The SDLP left us”.

To me that was crucial to understanding the position of SDLP found itself a few years ago. Something the Party needed to hear. There was enough progress in 2014 Council Elections to show that SDLP had turned a corner in West Tyrone. So the result last week is an incremental improvement.

SDLP will be looking for more improvement. Dan is now 90% established in West Tyrone. He can become 95% established by the autumn. If Joe Byrne steps aside and Dan is co-opted. Id expect Dan to feature a lot on TV News over the winter and spring. The target has to be a minimum of 8,500 votes at the Assembly. In the Assembly elections of 2016, that is where Dan becomes 100% established.

Two things. Joe Byrne MLA has been totally selfless in promoting Dan. Joe is to be congratulated in findIng young talent. Joe will be happy to pass the the baton on.

This is not just about West Tyrone. There are also opportunities opening up in South Belfast and probably other constituencies. But I think there is a feel good factor about West Tyrone that can affect neighbouring constituencies, such as Mid Ulster and Fermanagh-South Tyrone.

This is an excellent opportunity for SDLP to strike while the iron is hot.

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Dolores Kelly To Resign AS SDLP Deputy Leader?

Posted on May 12, 2015 by fitzjameshorse

Probably not.

But there is a certain logic.

Brid Rodgers, Dolores predecessor as MLA for Upper Bann and Deputy Leader has an interview in The Irish News in which she says that Alasdair McDonnell should resign from the Leadership. It is hardly a surprise. It is hardly a scoop for John Manley. It looks like a Blue Peter kinda statement from Brid. “Heres one I prepared earlier”.

Let me emphasise I have no real fear about SDLP losing its Upper Bann seat in the 2016 Assembly Elections. Unlike Nicholas Whyte…Slugger O’Tooles correspondent in Belgium….I actually live in Upper Bann. I am a member of the local Party and know the personalities. And while I wont be publishing things that are said within the confines of a SDLP meeting, I am clear about this…SDLP wont lose Upper Bann seat.

But Brid nominating Margaret Ritchie for Leadership and later Conall McDevitt for Leadership are both publicly known. If I was to guess, I would say that Brid would favour Alex Attwood or Dolores to succeed Alasdair McDonnell

But there are problems. Alex has seen the SDLP lose votes in West Belfast. And Dolores has seen her vote dwindle in Upper Bann.

1997: 11,600 ….1998: 11,800….2001: 7,600 ….2003: 6,800….2005: 5,800….2007: 5,500…2010: 5,300 …2011: 4,900 …..2015: 4,300.

To be clear …in the 1990s, these are votes for Brid Rodgers. And the 2003 and 2007 figures are for two SDLP candidates. And while I do not seriously doubt that the seat can be held in 2016, it will need the full attention of the sitting MLA and Dolores cannot be considered a Leadership contender.

But can she retain her position as Deputy Leader? Well…thats problematic. Against a background of calls for NEW blood in SDLP, it would be no bad thing if SDLP went into 2016 with a new Leadership “team”.

Whether thru Leadership elections and co-options later this year, the SDLP will have a completely different look by Christmas 2015 or Easter 2016….ahead of the Assembly Elections.

You can reasonably expect that the Party Conference in November 2015 will include “new” MLAs, including of course, the MLA for South Belfast.

Let me be the first person to use  the words “Dream Ticket” to describe the Leader and Deputy Leader.

To be honest, I dont think Dolores Kelly or Alex Attwood can be part of a Dream Ticket, except as senior and highly respected colleagues within the Assembly Team. Indeed Dolores would be an excellent Minister for the Environment.

The problem for SDLP is not only a lack of NEW BLOOD. The problem has been the poisonous BAD BLOOD, between senior figures.

The autumn of 2015 can be a time when SDLP gets a blood transfusion.

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Forecasting Elections

Posted on May 11, 2015 by fitzjameshorse

The strange thing about Norn Iron Elections is that the LetsGetAlongerists give me no time to enjoy them.

A gentle reminder here to LetsGetAlongerists that the Alliance Party lost a seat in East Belfast last week.  Grief gets people in different ways. Brian O’Neill and Kris Nixon from Slugger O’Toole produce a thread which does the usual post-Election Slugger “thing”. Consoling the LetsGetAlongerists with pouring vitriol on the winners and telling the folks in the so-called “centre ground” that it will all be different in 2016.

So begins the new narrative. It is still only May but already the LetsGetAlongerists have convinced themselves they are in the ascendancy …Last week…Reality never happened. LetsGetAlongerists prefer Fantasy. We will have this in August, in November, in February…all the way to May 2016. For the Alliance Party, the glass is never allowed to be half-empty. The Slugger Team keep filling it until it is…er…half-full.

Nicholas Whyte is a former Alliance candidate. Now an academic, his analysis is much more accurate. but he is a Number-Cruncher. His analyis merely uses votes cast last week to give a picture for 2016. Thus Sylvia Hermon will be elected three times for North Down next year. It seems unlikely.

Callling three seats for SDLP in South Down should please me. But it is balanced by the imaginary loss in Upper Bann. And it is even more balanced by the fact that this is just numbers. It takes no account of the actuality on the ground.

It takes no account of the candidates, local conditions,multi seat constituencies, First Past The Post, Proportional Representation, tactical voting, loaned votes, turnout and the manifestos in 2016.

Numbers look the same from Brussels as they do from the Kings Hall. The Election results need more than numbers to make them understood.

Take…East Belfast. It is not really enough to say that DUP have 19,500 votes, Alliance 17,000, Tories/Greens/Sinn Féin/SDLP 3,000 that we can claim this equates to three DUP and Alliance seats in 2016.

For a start this was a First Past The Post Election for a single seat. The turnout was ten per cent higher than in 2015.

The DUP votes include some UUP votes (there was after all a Pact). The Alliance votes will include votes from more liberal UUP votes and votes they asked other parties to lend them. Presumably Alliance is not the kinda political Party that would ask parties to lend them votes that they wont repay.

As for Tories/Grens/Sinn Féin/SDLP tthey were squeezed.

So in 2016, I would expect both DUP and Alliance to lose votes. I would expect UUP to gain votes (obviously!) and Tories/Greens/Sinn Féin/SDLP to gain from beyond their hard core, who could not bring themselves to hold their noses long enough to vote for Naomi Long.

A much more sensible take on East Belfast in 2016, would be the almost certainty of three DUP seats and at least two Alliance. The sixth and final seat will more likely be a two way fight between Alliance and UUP …and I would not rule out the Greens and TUV being involved.

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