General Election Prediction

Just for the craic.

Ceann Comhairle (Speaker, unopposed)…..1

The other 157 seats.

Fine Gael 52….Labour 10……(outgoing Govt wont reach the numbers to continue). Very bad day for Labour and blood on the carpet in TV studios)

Fiann Fail…..33ish…..largely forgiven by electorate. Back in the game as Official Opposition.

Sinn Féin….24 (not the breakthru they wanted but they will manage expectations and proclaim themselves the credible left wing Opposition. But ultimately they are too toxic in the South. The 2016 result will be better than 2011 but this is the high tide.

that will leave around 38 Others. A high tide for them also as any early election will force most back to a “Party”. And a mixture from Social Democrats (up to 5) and assorted “far left” (7 or 8) but onltthe SDs can realistically be courted by outgoing government.The SocialDemocrats might be the kingmakers but I cant see a crushed Labour wanting to be part of a coalition again.

throw in the Shane Ross types (they will do better than Renua, who I think might be wiped out) but I cant see them formally agreeing to any formal coalition.

Gene-pool Fianna Fáil will take seats and of course genuine Independents….but as I see it most likely the same outcome as everyone else sees it….a hung Dáil, a minority Fine Gael government and a new election within two years.

If Iam wrong, I will be in good company. The last seats in every constituency will be dramatic.

 

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SDLP: Signs Of Recovery

I am more of a pessimist than an optimist but I have never bought into the narrative that SDLP is a political party in “managed decline” (Slugger O’Toole passim). It seemed too much like an agenda, driven by people who dont like SDLP very much.

Certainly since Christmas, I have noticed that some Sinn Féin supporters have become pretty hostile to SDLP. A lot of messages,I have got recently are more vitriolic than before. Is it in itself a good sign that SF twitterati are taking SDLP more seriously than before?

I have never bought into 2014 and 2015 being bad years. Lest we forget 2014 was a good year for nationalism at the local council polls. But while SDLPs main rivals Sinn Féin and Alliance lost ten and two seats respectively, SDLP lost just one. So in comparative terms, SDLP did better than their rivals.

Likewise in Westminster 2015, Sinn Féin lost Fermanagh-South Tyrone and Alliance lost East Belfast and SDLP held their three seats. Not enough credit has been given for this statistic.

In relative “clout” SF 4, SDLP 3, Alliance 0….is obviously better for SDLP than SF 5, SDLP 3 Alliance 1.

Observers will note there has been a change of Leader in late 2014 and Colum Eastwood is certainly young and energetic but essentially he is carrying on the work that was started by Alasdair McDonnell from 2011.

There are good signs. Most candidates for the Assembly Election are already in place and there is a younger and fresher look and a certain sense of purpose.

But one thing seems to have been overlooked by analysts. It is not just about first preference votes…SDLP look much more transfer-friendly. The stance on marriage equality opens up an avenue to social liberals, who do not like the fundamentalism of DUP or near-Fundamentalism of UUP. The “Welfare” issue…Sinn Féin u-turns and unionist-Alliance hostility to the under-priveleged opens up new ground.

And of course, SDLP has been more consistent on the Victims issue than any other Party.

Today’s news that the sole councillor elected on the NI21 ticket in 2014….Johnny McCarthy in Lisburn…has joined SDLP is news that will give a boost to SDLP members. And yet it seems part of a pattern.

In May this year, one SDLP candidate was formerly a member of Sinn Féin. And I know SDLP members who were previously members of the Green Party and LabourNI. So there are signs that are good.

The key thing is that the individuals who become activists are a sign that voters are also prepared to look at SDLP in a transfer-friendly way.

In May 2016, transfers will hold the key to the “sixth” seats in a lot of constituencies.

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So Many Blessings…So Many Disguise

So…just a few weeks after stating that not being selected to fight Fermanagh-South Tyrone was a “blessing in disguise”, Michelle Gildernew has generously decided to accept the nomination. This follows a specially convened Selection Convention which had only one purpose…to select Michelle Gildernew.

By any conventional wisdom, the best chance that Sinn Féin have of defending three seats in Fermanagh-South Tyrone is to run two based in Fermanagh and one based in South Tyrone.

It was madness …and a calculated snub to Ms Gildernew (who lost the Westminster seat last year) to select three candidates…all male and all based in Fermanagh.

Adding Ms Gildernew means a four way split in the potential votes …and almost as mad as the original decision.

So Ms Gildernew is doubly blessed.

Not so John Feeley, Sean Lynch and semi-detached Phil Flanagan. Will one step down and take other duties within the Sinn Féin machine…and declare it a “blessing in disguise”.

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SDLP Youth: EU Referendum

So David Cameron is jetting around Europe looking for a “new deal” for Britain in the “European Union”. The likelihood is that he will be given some concessions and he will maximise these concessions to present to the British people in a Referendum in June this year.
Essentially the big European nations…Germany and France …want him to succeed. And as always it doesnt matter a damn what Latvia, Estonia, Slovakia etc thinks.

With the increasing likelihood that Cameron will have his “triumph” and that most Conservative MPs will endorse the “triumph”….and Labour more or less committed to “Europe”….I would have expected tonights SDLP Youth “event” to have lost its sense of urgency.
SDLP are of course pro-Europe.
And this “pro-Europe” ethos is very pronounced in SDLP Youth.
There are few better examples of generational politics than “Europe”.

For myself…I actually voted in the “Wilson” Referendum. I am pretty sure that I voted “no”. The rhetoric of the early 1970s was that the “Common Market” (as it was then called)was a “rich mans club”.
In any of its subsequent incarnations, I have not warmed to “Europe”…not least because Saint Garret Fitzgerald himself acknowledged that the creeping political union was achieved in spite of the people of Europe. Basically it was achieved by stealth.I am not fond of being conned.

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So last nights panel…Simon Darvill from the British Labour Youth Panel, Naomh Gallaghrt (SDLP International Secretary), Glyn Roberts (Norn Iron Independent Retailers Assn) and Claire Hanna MLA (SDLP, South Belfast and Spokesperson on Finance).
This was a seminar…Claire later tweeted it as a “workshop” but there was no debate. The SDLP is committed to a YES vote in any Referendum.
The format was that each person on the panel was asked by Naomh to outline their position. Simon Darvill noted the adverse effects on young people, specifically students at universities and success stories such as “Erasmus”.
Glyn Roberts who was until recently (maybe still) Chair of the Alliance Party spoke about the damage to the economy and jobs. He looked forward to Turkey joining the EU so that it is less “white Christian”…a weak point. Turkey in Europe will be a disaster. He felt we should be in campaign mode.
Claire saw things in the round.
Europe is the best conflict resolution scheme in History.A “YES” vote is important because Scotland will leave the UK (surely the break up of UK is my sole reason for living!) and while this would be good for Scottish nationalists, it would divide Ireland further. Europe is in “SDLP DNA”. DUP have a different DNA but Arlene Foster is a pragmatist…and Sinn Féin are hypocrites who voted anti Europe in nine EU Referendums in the Republic. Importantly, there is no Plan B…and no “sweetheart deals”. The consequence of leaving EU will be massive.
Simon Darvill pointed out that young people “if they vote” will more likely vote YES than NO.I am not entirely sure that this is true as people in Youth politics see things thru the prism of university politics rather than factory floors and unemployment offices. The key demographic was the skeptical “baby boomers” who may not be convinced about the joys of Europe but will be voting with our children and grandchildren in mind. Ha!
Some points made from the floor included very good points from Alaban Magennis MLA and Fearghal McKinney MLA.
The points made by other speakers included the perceived lack of transparency in Europe, the democratic deficit, the banking crisis, the bad press that Europe had and one excellent point that on a recent “Pointless” TV programme, only four of Britains 80 MEPs were not “pointless answers”.
Claire said that the bank bail out was the worst political decision made on this island and took a well deserved swipe at the tax avoiding non-residents who run the British media.
Another contributor wondered if Eastern Europewould have fallen to dictatorships without the carrot of EU membership.
And Seamus de Faoite, Chair of SDLP Youth in Belfast in the final contribution worried about xenophobia playing a part in the NO campaign.

So what do I think.
I will be 64 when I vote in this June Referendum and the argument that I am voting for my children and grandchildren is probably the most persuasive thing I heard last night. I do not know if either of my sons will vote in June. Nor will I attempt to persuade them to so do. I am inclined to think they are anti-EU.

So as I see it…I detest Europe. It is not 28 equal nations …it is an unbalanced federal state. Germany, France, Britain are “California, New York and Texas” and Latvia, Malta and Ireland are “Rhode Island, Hawaii and Delaware”. It might well be a great institution but stopping France and Germany from fighting each other is not a particuarly good reason for it to exist. After the fall of Napoleon, Belgium was created for the same reason. And that was hardly a roaring success.
Frankly “Europe” is already or soon will be a disaster.
I can certainly understand the original six…and understand the motivation for the Common Market…post 1945. And the extension to nine with patently decent nations, Denmark, Ireland and Britain.
But the first mistake was fast-tracking Greece (recovering from the Colonels Junta) into membership.
And the second mistake was fast-tracking Portugal and Spain (recovering from the fascist Salazar and Franco dictatorships).
Certainly Sweden, Finland and Austria are blameless nations and enhance the reputation of Europe.
But the 2005 expansion (Latvia, Estonia,, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Malta and Cyprus) many recovering from Communist dictatorship and a lower standard of economy was an act of hubris.
And as for Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia…madness.
Turkey…makes no sense.
The banking crisis of 2008 emphasised the fact.
Europe is on a life support machine.

I cannot be persuaded to vote for whats good for the “United Kingdom”. Nor can I be persuaded to vote for what is good for “Europe”. Whats best for Ireland seems to be a YES vote.
But the bottom line is that I will never “love” Europe.
Insofar as I want to vote against Eurocrats, bankers, speculators and the rest….effectively they are holding a gun to the heads of my grandchildren.

So I have no real choice except to vote YES.

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What’s In A Name?

Interesting thread on Slugger O’Toole about place names, regerencing Mumbai/ Bombay and Derry/”Londonderry”. I am surprised that there was not more reference made to Irish place-names.

Even if I wanted, I cant contribute to Slugger. I do not know my password.But a few observations.

At the 2010 SDLP Conference, (then) Leader, Margaret Ritchie said in her speech “I am not afraid to say Northern Ireland”. i remember at the time that I wrote (probably on Slugger) that she would not be saying “Londonderry”.

Indeed at the time of the City of Culture nonsense, I predicted (again on Slugger) that the clumsy letsgetalongerist phrase “Derry-Londonderry” would become mainstream. As the SDLP Conference takes place in that city next month, it will be interesting to note any deviation from the traditional nationalist terminology.

Of course, nationalists take a lot of pride in “the county”. Take a walk in the Holy Land in Belfast…the student accomodation and you will see Tyrone, Armagh, Fermanagh etc flags in the windows of houses.

Of course, the “shiring” of Ireland was an English invention for administrative purposes and bears little relation to the mpre ancient dioceses or the shifting geography of “clan lands”. aS Dustin the Turkey (an authority on all things Irish) has observed “Leitrim is a mistake”.

Is it actually possible to drive from north Leitrim to south Leitrim without going thry another county.?

Irish independence necessitated the changing of place names. “Kings County” became County Offaly and “Queens County” became County Laois. Most of us know that PortLaoise was originally Maryborough and Daingean was Philipstown. I think that the change of name Parsonstown to Birr was a local decision pre-dating Independence.
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The postcard was sent from Maryborough to Portrush in December 1915.

While Offaly and Laois were successfully gaelicised, few recall that County Donegal was officially “Tír Chonaill” for a few years after Independence.

But “English” place names did not fare as well as earlier (more established? ) Viking names. While we are all familiar with the “Irish names” for Wicklow, Wexford and Waterford, they have never really established themselves in everyday conversation. Indeed the same is true for our nations capital city. We all know the “Irish” but nobody uses it in everyday conversation.

Provision for local petition and referendum draws the sting from decisions. Or maybe its the officialese  of dual sign-posts. But Kells never really became “Ceanannus Mór” but Newtownbarry did become “Bunclody”….and while I suppose Mhuine Bheag, Rath Luairc and Mostrim are “official”, the reality is that Bagenalstown, Charleville and Edgeworthstown seem to be in common usage.

Somehow we seem to have found Irish solutions to Irish problems.

 

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Republicans And Citizens.

Watching the American Presidential election process is a depressing experience. Not least because of the Money involved.

One of the fault lines in American politics is the relationship between People and Government. The Americans seem obsessed with Tyrrany …not least their own potential to be tyrants. It strikes me as a very pessimistic view of their nation…and themselves. American citizens ARE the Nation.

So Bernie Sanders may or may not have a hard time persuading Democrats that Government is actually a good thing which can bring benefits…Education, Health Care, Jobs etc. Even if he persuades enough Democrats to put him on the ballot paper in November, he is unlikely to persuade enough Americans to put him in the White House.

Hillary Clinton takes a more nuanced approach. She is the political savvy. She can do Democratic rhetoric. But she is bought and paid for by the special interests.

The debate is mirrored on the Republican side. Donald Trump can ramp up the rhetoric about migrants, guns, foreign policy and he might persuade enough Republicans to put him on the ticket but ultimately the Republican establishment will be hoping Mario Rubio…talking rhetoric but politically savvy will be on the ticket.

Put simply…a mainstream Republican will beat Sanders and a mainstream Democrat will beat Trump.

The nightmare chaotic option (for the American establishment) is that Sanders and Trump are Presidential rivals. The “safe option” for Stability is more of the same…Clinton versus Rubio.

Deep down in 1776, Americans did not rise up against British Government Tyranny …they rose up againsr what they saw as the Tyranny of Government itself. The devotion of some to the original clauses in the Constitution means they have not fully moved with the notions of Democracy that are held in Western Europe.

How is it that anti-Government militia menin Oregon can be described as “good patriots”. Seemingly opposition to Government is a “patriotic” act.

But is it any different in Ireland where a man convicted of tax evasion is described by Gerry Adams as a “good republican”. The phrase should be enough to ensure that the style of Sinn Féin personified by Adams will only make limited breakthru in the General Election later this month. It will resonate with Republicans but cant play well in the mainstream. And of course Sinn Féin cannot talk about tax increases while seemingly condoning evasion.

To some extent, I have a (very limited) tolerance of Gerry Adams position. The suggestion is that Slab Murphy was a useful ally to Adams and the “doves” in Sinn Féin in the years around 1998 and that he was instrumental in winning over “hawks” to the Adams side. That may well be true but hardly a reason to give him a free pass on the country’s….(the Republics!!) tax laws.

Mary Lou McDonald tries a different tack. Slab is a “typical country man”. The suggestion is that farmers and the like are abit careful with their pennies…and not averse to doing everything “cash in hand”. Whether all countrymen would agree with this stereotype is one thing …and equating Slab with lovable rogue Dinny Byrne in Glenroe is another…..but I dont think typical countrymen have plastic bags containing hundreds of thousands worth of cash in their cowsheds.

A third tactic seems to be to claim Slab was convicted in a non-jury trial. But as solicitors defending dodgy bankers often point out the evidence in complex cases are often too complex for the somple monds of the general public.

Which brings up the question of whether Irish bankers are good citizens of the Republic. Whatever happened all those 1980s bank managers in rural Ireland and suburban Dublin, who persuaded typical country men and Dublin business men to open accounts in Newry and Derry? Did any go to jail? Are they “bad republicans” as well as “bad citizens”. And those Dublin bankers who were sent down at the end of last year….has anyone said they were “good bankers”?

It seems to be that the evidence of public inquiries into banking practices in USA, Ireland and Britain has produced enough evidence to suggrst that a lot of people should be in jail…and yet curiously, the numbers of convicted bankers in prison systems seem small. Why?

And there are reports that celebrities and others avail of aggressive tax avoidance schemes. But for those who broke the law like Lester Piggott, can we justify it on the basis of “he is a good jockey”.

Would Gerry Adams sayits “Liam Lawlor was a good politician?” Or would Mary Lou prefer us to say “Liam Lawlor was a typical politician?”

I have read about these in newspapers….reported by journalists and yet the evidence heard at the Leveson Inquiry suggests that phone-hacking was rather more widespread than subsequent convictions suggest. Would any hack say “Andy Coulson was a good journalist?”

Sinn Féin are of course hypocrites…it is their most endearing quality. Who else would rightly campaign to save one side of Moore Street, Dublin and not campaign against the selling of dodgy tobacco on the other side of the street. Is Moore Street in Mary Lous constituency? I am surprised she has not noticed. Maybe she would call the vendors “typical Dubliners”.

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BoobySands Gate

Sometimes you have to laugh. Mary Lou McDonald publishes a flyer and seemingly nobody did any proof-reading.

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“Booby Sands”. Sinn Féin are a slick organisation. It is entirely reasonable that critics of Sinn Féin take advantage when the slick staffers make a mistake. This should have been spotted.

I do not take the view that the Internet can influence serious political discourse. What the Internet does well is Sarcasm, Satire and cheap Point Scoring…and I will happily join in. And indeed I have already. Twitter was made for this.

So…we have the “boob” jokes, the “tit”jokes and the “storm in a D Cup” jokes.

Of course, the quality has not been maintained during the day.

Not a good day for Sinn Féin of course. But the response of the likes of former SF press officer and veteran spoofer from West Belfast….Danny Morrison…is of course over the top. He states that Fine Gael would not be impressed if opponents made light of Béal na Blath and the killing of Michael Collins.

Lets be clear…those amused by the mistake…are not in any way amused by the death of Bobby Sands. And as I have said earlier in this week, Sinn Féin supporters are traditionally the most aggressive tweeters and trolls on the Internet.

Danny Morrison being outraged is a nonsense. Of course Mr Morrison was around in 1981 and his role in the Hunger Strike is a matter of some debate in Sinn Féin and other republican circles.

As a republican myself, I object to Sinn Féin trying to link the events of Easter 1916 to their own election campaign. And linking the Hunger Strikes to Easter 1916 is ridiculous.

But ….the actual quotation from Bobby Sands has been mis-used…the quote is actually very inclusive. “Republicans and Others has their part to play….”

Indeed….people dont have to vote Sinn Féin to play a part.

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The Fiftieth Anniversary Of The Fiftieth Anniversary

There is something about the Centenary of the Easter Rising that gives me a feeling of deja-vu. i have seen it all before. Remakes like Steve Martin’s “Sgt Bilko” and David Jason’s “Still Open All Hours” are rarely better than the original. So it will be interesting to see how the critics judge the 2016 Production.

For that is what it is…a production.

At Easter 1966, I was 13 years old…almost 14. And I lived in a long “mixed street” in West Belfast. The street was the first of a series of mixed streets. The streets to the west of us were Catholic …the heartland of Raglan Street, Leeson Street and the Pound Loney. And the streets behind us were mixed and then Protestant.

My parents married in 1951 and were one of the first Catholics in the street. The Union Jacks flew at one end of the street every July. On the Twelfth morning an Orange Lodge from Sandy Row marched with a band into the street to pick up the Lodge Master.

Every Saturday lunch-time two nuns would come into the street and they would get threepence at our house #24 and my father would tell them that the next Catholic house was #42. So that even at ten years old I was aware of the differences.

It was to be frank…a slum street…especially our row of houses which leaned backwards. Our row of houses was knocked down in early 1970 …my parents had always assumed that they would be compensated (they dreamed of £700) as the M1 …Westlink was being built. As it turned out they got nothing at all except a Housing Executive house in Upper Springfield Road.

There was a protocol to life in a “mixed” street in the 1960s. The Catholic children went round the corner to the Catholic school and the Protestant children went to their school…I dont think I ever saw it.

And while the number of Union Jacks dwindled as the street became more Catholic, it was as much to do with the closing of the local RUC Barracks and the inability to provide a 24-hour watch.

Certainly emboldened Catholic neighbours took to playing Irish rebel songs on record players and leaving their doors open. While moderate Catholics considered this to be very bad manners, the alternative view is that “themmuns” had it their way for too long.

There was an unwritten rule about not playing football on a Sunday as it would offend Protestants but that rule changed with the Demographics….and on balance thats a pity because I liked that our street football team played impromtu matches in all parts of the city….on a Saturday morning we would walk to Botanic Gardens, Ormeau Park, Woodvale and once Falls Park. And there was a curiousity about looking out the back bedroom window at the boys going to that once-a-week meeting where they had a a strange sailors uniform.

It was after all circa 1965 and we all liked the Beatles and Manchester United. Oddly nobody ever mentioned Celtic and Rangers. Why is that? All I can say is that it is part of that protocol…what people thought behind closed doors might well be different.

And yet there were times when it seemed to touch us. That football team needed a set of cheap jerseys and the cheapest available was Green…and we bought them but the Protestant boys drifted away.

And much much earlier…I was maybe four years old and in a neighbours house watching TV….and they had me standing up singing God Save The Queen. No doubt they enjoyed that. My parents said that I couldnt go back as it was too late at night for me. But really it was because they didnt like me being a source of entertainment.

So we had this curious reality of Catholics being second class citizens but (as we thought) the worst excesses of unionism had long gone. The Unionist Prime Minister, O’Neill was visiting Catholic schools and taking tea and cake with the nuns.

Of course after the eleven plus, I went to the local Christian Brothers grammar school. And I met a new kind of boy. Indeed not just the boys who lived in Glengormley, Andytown, Bangor, Lurgan and Portaferry….but the boys who lived much closer to me in West Belfast…..Leeson Street area, Clonard and Beechmount.

Going into houses in Leeson Street, Clonard and Beechmount, it was obvious there was a very different protocol to life there. The houses often had republican as well as Catholic icons on the walls….and as my father became aware of the names of my new friends, he would often say …ah thats a grandson of XXXX XXXXX “a 1920s man” or a son of XXXXX XXXXXX, a “1950s man”.

My father did not particuarly mind my new friends. Indeed there was an admiration for such men…..often pointed out to me on summer night walks….older and middle aged men who watched GAA games at Corrigan Park or wore “fáinne” at An Ard Scoil and the men with pioneer pins who had fought for the International Brigade in the Spanish Civil War.

And besides there was no violence in the mid 1960s and violence wasconfined to the history books.

So no big deal that some of the boys in my class and some of the boys in the junior Legion of Mary had militant republican backgrounds. To be honest, I dont think I really knew the full extent of this until Easter 1966.

Certainly at least two teachers…one a lay teacher and the other a Christian Brother …suspended our Religion and Maths class to talk about being schoolboys in Dublin, fifty years previously.and while you might be buying these weekly installments of re-produced newspapers from 1916, I urge you to visit a library and look at the special edition of the Sunday Press (Easter 1966) …I still recall it spread over our living room floor.

My parents, sister and I watched the Parade on Falls Road. …opposite Falls Baths. The younger brother of my best friend was in the front line. …dressed in his GAA colours and carrying a football. He would have been 12 years old. Whatever happened him? He is not a politician but he is one of the best known figures in “Civic Society”

And within the parade was a school-friend. Whatever happened him. Within a decade, he would be killed “on active service” in the streets of west Belfast.

The issue of 1916 north and south is different. In Dublin, it is a symbol of (eventual) victory and in Belfast a symbol for nationalists of a glorious “lost cause”. The cause of Irish Freedom …and as causes go, its a damned good one….cant be right in Lifford and wrong in Strabane. It cant be right in Banna Strand and wrong at Murlogh Bay.

It is either right or wrong and I choose to believe Easter 1916 was right.

Parades are usually for Victors…look at Poppy Day. Shame is for the Defeated. There are few or limited parades for German veterans.

Yet look at the American Civil War. There were plenty of veterans of that conflict (1861-1865) in 1916. And indeed they were still having veteran campa at Gettysburg around 1929.

Yet ….the Sons and Daughters of the Confederacy were more open about parading their lost cause…a very bad cause ….years after Defeat….or was the South really ever defeated until Martin Luther King a century later….or has it really been defeated at all?.

HISTORY is not merely about Events. It is the ongoing interpretation of Events. And effectively this Centenary of the Easter Rising is the second time in my lifetime that this Event has been interpreted. …twice by the Republic of Ireland “establishment” and people and twice (by default) northern republicans of the specifically militant kind. Mainstream nationalist/republicans of the type who wont be giving first prefernce votes to Sinn Féin have been deliberately marginalised  by the SF organisers….and/or have marginalised themselves.

But a word of caution …the 1966 Belfast commemorations were organised in the Clonard area and the first killing of the (modern) Troubles was John Scullion in the Clonard area…in 1966 in Clonard…a full three years before the date usually given as the commencement of violence. Mr Scullion was killed by loyalists who were targetting one of the main organisers and Mr Scullion was shot dead instead.

 

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Easter Rising: South and East Belfast

So….Oxford Street, Belfast…the old Christian Brothers Primary School and the launch of the programme of events to commemorate the Easter Rising and the connexion to South and East Belfast.
There will of course be events in other parts of the city of Belfast and Norn Iron.


Three young people…two male and one female…looking very smart in Irish Volunteer and Cumann na mBan uniforms.
But surprisingly few young people. The attendees were mostly male and as old as I am. Most seemed to be “ex-prisoners”.
The question….to what extent is this event inclusive to South and East Belfast…to nationalists and republicans (I was the only member of SDLP present) and to what extent was the event a “Sinn Féin” event.
The event was hosted by Máirtin Ó Muilleoir, MLA for South Belfast. As is his way, he name-checked several people in the room, including Tom Hartley, Bobby Storey, Deirdre Hargey and Niall Ó Donnghaile.
He noted that the Taoiseach had just announced the General Election and Ó Muilleoir looked forward to good Sinn Féin performances in 2016, on both sides of the border. i thought it better not to reveal my “Team SDLP” tshirt and shout “Vote SDLP!!!”
A young woman led the singing of Oro Se Do Bheatha Bhaile and Ó Muilleoir introduced the keynote speaker, Bobby Storey, referencing his contribution to another phase of the republican struggle.
Bobby Storey referencing South and East Belfast figures who had fought the Rising…the Corr Sisters, Joseph Campbell (an “Intelligence Officer ” which Bobby seemed to find amusing) and of course Charlie Monahan, drowned during gun running.
Good that he pointed out that the republican ideals were actually Belfast ideas from before 1798 and the role of people like Dennis McCullough, the IRB and Gaelic League in Belfast.
For me, the Easter Rising is a stand alone event but Storey stated that the centenary of the Rising will be linked to the 35th Anniversary of the Hunger Strikes in 1981.

Martin Ó Muilleoir then name-checked all the other people he had missed out first time around…Geraldine McAteer and Dermot Kennedy (who will be the Sinn Féin candidate in Strangford in May.
Tom Hartley spoke briefly about the history of Oxford Street CBS.

And then the young woman singer led us in our National Anthem.

Was it inclusive? No.  But there are limits to how inclusive an event commemorating Easter 1916 can be. It certainly has to involve more than Sinn Féin and cant be about other “phases of the struggle”. Nor can it be about the Somme…or unionists…it is about the German allies of our Republic.Nor is it about the War of Independence or the Civil War.

It is about the Proclamation, it is about the three week period between the landing of Roger Casement to the execution of James Connolly.

It is not entirely Sinn Féins fault. While SDLP are absolutely right that the Easter Rising does not belong to one Party, the SDLP has not thrown itself fully into full hearted commemoration or celebration of the birth of our nation state.It is too nuanced….with the false god of “shared history” paraded before us.

Learned academic papers and seminars and re-appraisals are all very well but basically, we need a parade.

EDIT….Niall Ó Donghaile has contacted me to say that there were some unionists at this launch and probably some people who are not political.

 

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Blogging Is A Funny Old Game

I have now been publishing this Blog for four and a half years and I still dont understand how it works. Things tend to follow a pattern and yet sometimes there is no pattern.

I blogged on Sunday night about Fermanagh-South Tyrone and it seemed very routine. Yet when I woke up on Monday morning I already had a normal day’s views. Usually “overnight” is when American readers view this Blog but Sunday night-Monday morning a lot of local people were reading. It seemed a bit odd, even more so as stats went thru the roof all day Monday.

Neither Monday or yesterday was “best day ever” but certainly Monday-Tuesday was the best 48 hours ever. Although some of this can be attributed to being quoted twice in “Irish News” yesterday, it still seems odd…as I am no longer promoting the blog via Facebook (my Twitter presence is very limited) and I had published nothing since Sunday. Even more odd is the fact that more views generally means I get more comments….but comments are much the same.

I am not complaining of course. Blogging is always a leap in the dark. But there is something cosy about writing a blog ….a bit like Terry Wogan broadcasting to one person. Even Wogan would be uncomfortable with someone telling him that he was broadcasting to …three people.

So at least for a few days, I will have to raise my game….and be almost “responsible”.

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