The General Election. The Headline
Well, it was actually eighteen different elections ….and the British one and it does not really matter.
As a spectator sport, it was of course great to see the Conservatives get humiliated, But in the aftermath everyone seems to be appreciating the greatness of being British includes the transfer of power. Britain loves tradition, even the stupid traditions,
I voted in my constituency at 7.15 am Thursday morning….fifteen minutes after opening time. And I am usually there for the doors to open. I suppose it was a sign that I was a bit disinterested. I am after all 72 years old. I am not in the best of health….and there was no real point in voting in my constituency, Upper Bann as the result (DUP victory) was pretty certain.
So I came home, showered had breakfast and got the bus to Belfast. I like to spend election days visiting polling stations, especially in constituencies which will be close. I like to engage with canvassers and leafleters outside polling stations,
As they say “please vote for Alliance”, I reply that I always do vote Alliance (a lie of course) but I cannot vote Alliance on this occasion. This conversation works equally well with DUP, UUP and anybody who approaches me.
Disappointingly, there was very little engagement.
Of course, the Labour Party is now the British government. I offer two cheers only…its Labour (hooray) and the Conservatives were totally humiliated (second hooray). But it is a BRITISH government (so…..booooo!)
It was a landslide of historic proportions. But was it?
Well Yes it was….and no it wasn’t.
There are 650 constituencies in the House of Commons. (actually I dispute that figure and will elaborate in another post).
The candidate who gets most votes becomes MP. And the system is known as First Past The Post. Typically around six candidates and the result might be that the winner gets (maybe) 35% of the vote and the other five get 30%, 20%, 10%, 4%, 1% of the votes cast.
Is it a fair system? Winner takes all? In the example above 35% of the electorate voted for the winner but 65% voted against the winner.
The British system is built around three main political parties, Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat…with Scottish National Party in Scotland and Plaid Cymru (Welsh Nationalists) standing in Wales. And of course there is the marginalised Green Party.
Norn Iron…is of course different. More of that in another post. This post excludes Norn Iron.
So to have an understanding of the 2024 General Election, we have to look at the 2019 General Election which seems a lifetime ago.
The figures for 2019.
Conservative Boris Johnson 365 seats 14,000,000 44%
Labour Jeremy Corbyn 203 seats 10,000,000 32%
SNP Nicola Sturgeon 48 seats 1,200,000 4%
Lib Dem 11 seats 3,600,000 11%
DUP 8 seats 250,000 0.8%
Sinn Féin 7 seats 180,000 0.6%
Plaid Cymru 4 seats 150,000 0.5%
SDLP 2 seats 120,000 0.4%
Alliance 1 seat 135,000 0.4%
Green 1 seat 870,000 2.7%
So in 2019, where the driving force was Brexit and Immigration as well as Boris Johnson being a charlatan and Jeremy Corbyn a left wing fire-brand, the Conservatives won easily. In part they knocked down the so called Red Wall of Labour heartland seats.
Labour is of course a “progressive” political party. Alas, this is not necessarily true of all of the working class that votes Labour. indeed the Tories were able to persuade a lot of Labour supporters that Labour was “soft” on immigration and too “woke”.
The great success of Conservative politics (as in USA) is to persuade working class people to vote for something that is NOT in their interest.
But note that vote share bears no relation to seats won. Notably the Lib Dems are not helped by building up third places in England, Scotland and Wales (11 seats from 3,600,000 votes) while the Scottish Nationalists get 48 seats from 1,200,00 votes….all of course in Scotland.
So Johnson forms his Tory government which would confront the outworking of Brexit, deal with COVID, face allegations of corruption, Johnson’s resignation, Liz Truss six weeks as Prime Minister and …Rishi Sunak in Downing Street.
Corbyn also resigned as Labour leader and Labour began the process of change. led by Kier Starmer, a comparative novice in party politics.
The British people wanted the Tories out but the results are stark.
Labour Kier Starmer 412 seats 10,000,000 34%
Conservative Rishi Sunak 121 seats 7,000,000 24%
Lib Dem Ed Davey 72 seats 3,500,000 12%
SNP 9 seats 725,000 2.5%
Sinn Féin 7 seats 210,000 0.7%
Independent 6 seats 560,000 2%
Reform UK 5 seats 4,000,000 14%
DUP 5 seats 170,000 0.6%
Green 4 seats 2,000,000 6.7%
Plaid Cymru 4 seats 200,000 0.7%
SDLP 2 seats 90,000 0.3%
Alliance 1 seat 120,000 0.4%
UUP 1 seat 95,000 0.3%
TUV 1 seat 50,000 0.2%
So in round figures, Labour got the same number of votes as in 2019 and it was only a 2% increase in vote share. The real story is the Conservatives lost 7,000,000 votes (a drop of 20%) and lost votes to Labour, Lib Dems and Reform UK.
Labour gained 211 seats and the Tories lost an incredible 251 seats, including the Red Wall seats from 2019.
Liberal Democrats moved from 11 seats to 72 seats, its best result in over a century. SNP vote collapsed, in part due to scandals in the party. The movement for Scottish independence is damaged, probably for a generation.
Reform…is essentially a right wing party. With origins in the short lived Brexit party and UKIP party it is perhaps not unlike MAGA-Trump movement in United States. Some elements of the Conservatives are attracted to Reform but the more moderate “one nation” Tories are appalled by it.
Reform (5 seats from 4,000, 000 votes) and Greens (4 seats from 2,000,000 votes) can call foul. The people who voted for them are very under-represented.
That disconnexion is a ticking time bomb.
The Tories were humiliated. Several of their big names, including ten cabinet ministers, lost their seats. Sunak will resign as Tory leader after a leadership contest takes place…a leadership battle involving “one nation” Tories on one side and “toxic” right wingers on the other side.
British governments are formed in the House of Commons and theoretically a government party with 412 members should be safe for the duration of Parliament (five years). Already, the cabinet is formed….22 members including a member of the House of Lords (the Leader of the House of Lords).
Yet within the headlines, there are other stories. In a handful of constituencies, the Labour vote collapsed and the winners were Independents who are from the Muslim community and stood on the single issue of Palestine-Gaza.
Of course a landslide victory is a good thing for Labour…or is it?
A government is not just 22 Cabinet ministers heading up Departments. There are another 60 or so “junior” ministers. And that means Labours landslide has produced a lot of backbenchers which will not be easy to control. And of course a lot of those backbenchers are relative newcomers to politics and a lot never really expected to get elected.
Indeed the number of newcomers to the House of Commons is extremely high.
That must produce problems.
Of course there is a routine to electoral politics …promises and lies. Usually there is no consequence. This time is different.
The two party system of Conservative and Labour cannot survive.