President Michael D Higgins

Comhghairdeas le Michal D Ó hUiginn, Uachtarán Nua-tofa na hÉireann. Congratulations to our President Elect (ninth President of Ireland) Michael D Higgins.

Michael D Higgins was elected President. On balance I am glad. Clearly Sinn Féin influenced the result with Martin McGuinness’ demolition job on Seán Gallagher, the opinion poll leader just three days before the Election.

As I made clear, I would have voted for Martin McGuinness happy in the knowledge that he could not possibly win but in the expectation that his standing would at least concentrate southern minds on the North.

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The Presidential Election…All Over Except For The Counting

Apologies that I have been unable to post for a couple of days. The Presidential Election took place today against a background of animosity and uncertainty.

Other websites and news outlets will report the strange events of the past couple of days in greater detail and I dont have time to go into detail.

Seán Gallaghers lead in the opinion polls and chances of being elected are certainly dented by allegations made about him by Martin McGuinness in the last RTE TV Debate (Monday night).

Gallagher has spent weeks distancing himself from Fianna Fáil and playing down his rle as a “sporadic” member of that Party. He was in fact on the National Executive. Yet McGuinness charged him with having solicited donations of E5,000 for the Party from a businessman to attend a FF Fundraiser and have his photograph taken with then) Taoiseach Brian Cowen.

Gallaghers response was all over the place and on Tuesday the businessman stepped forward and identified himself as convicted fuel smuggler, Hugh Morgan, now a legitimate businessman and the landlord of Gerry Adams constituency office in Dundalk.

Hmmm….phrases like “stitch up” and “ambush” come to mind. And while there are some holes in the McGuinness-Morgan case there are at least as many holes in the Gallagher defence. He seems to be quibbling over detail rather than the substance.

At best Gallaghers credibility as a genuine Independent is shot to pieces. At worst the image of Gallagher as fundraiser for Fianna Fáil raises the toxic recent past where FF is a gombeen party with a culture of brown envelopes stuffed with cash……or in the Morgan case, an envelope of unspecified colour stuffed with a cheque.

The role of the national broadcaster (RTE) who hosted the debate is also being questioned. Hardly a friend to Sinn Féin, they……and the media generally are perceived as being well disposed to the Labour Party…….whose candidate Michael D Higgins (see my recent post on opinion polls) is the most likely person to gain.

An odd and discouraging set of circumstances. The Media has played a signigicant role……an unhealthy one…… in this Election. Stung by the public criticism of its hostility to Martin McGuinness and Sinn Féin it seems to have responded by being over-zealous to compensate by being overly aggressive to most other candidates. Michael D Higgins seems to have escaped the hostility. But two points should be made. It can be charged legitimately that the Media is well disposed to Higgins. But equally it should be said that Higgins has few if any skeletons in his cupboard…………..he has not for example sworn allegiance to another nation (Dana Rosemary Scallon), been a leading member of a terrorist/guerrilla organisation (McGuinness), been an entrepeneur with an odd grasp on accountancy practice (Gallagher), a Blueshirt junior Minister who got lucky with a lucrative seat in the European Parliament (Mitchell), a Joycean elitist showman and buffoon who talks about Man-Boy love in ancient Greece (Norris) or a regular on the lucrative Quango circuit (Davis).

We have hardly been blessed with a ballot paper of good candidates and maybe Higgins is the least bad option. He does however carry some baggage as a member of the Labour Party, which in coalition government with Fine Gael is imposing austerity on the Irish people…and Labour voters are suffering disproportionately.

Sinn Féin have in fact dictated the agenda. The surprise…(“audacious” was the word most commentators used ) selection of Martin McGuinness and the shock intervention/confrontation with Gallagher on Monday night.

Timing is everything. Most of today and yesterday as part of the convention surrounding elections, there has been a Moratorium……..no reporting of the campaign. Yet Gallagher has basically lost a day in dealing with the allegations against him. He has also of course wasted a day (Tuesday) avoiding the media and issuing conflicting statements and clarifications in his defence.

So Michael D Higgins (Labour) benefits. So will Martin McGuinness (Sinn Féin). With no reliable “exit polls”, it can only be speculated that Higgins has gained votes and Gallagher lost votes and that they are (lets assume) running at the same levels of support. This puts the Republican (McGuinness) in the possible role of “kingmaker” (if he will pardon the impression). McGuinness transfers would include nationalists who would transfer to Gallagher and (more?) left of centre votes which would transfer to Higgins.

Sinn Féins strategy has not been to win the Presidency (it would certainly be a bonus for them if they did) but the main aim has been to strenthen its position from the 10% it secured in the General Election (February 2011). If they could damage Fianna Fáil (and clearly they see Gallagher as a proxy FF candidate) and emerge as the Party with the second highest support (behind Labour) it would be a major coup.

Yet the Media are left more damaged than Fianna Fáil (too toxic to field an official candidate), Fine Gael (the major Party in Government will struggle on maybe less than 10% of the vote and David Norris (National Treasure reduced to ridicule).

Come Saturday morning, many in the Irish Media will possibly choke on their muesli as it may be the case that their favoured candidate has won the Presidency…….thanks to the intervention of the ma they hate so much….Martin McGuinness.

 

 

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John Hume……Simply A Good Man

In November last year, I attended the SDLP Conference in Belfast and was priveleged to be in the Hall, when Miriam O’Callaghan presented John Hume with his award as “The Greatest Ever Irish Person”. Well deserved of course. Last night in Derry, John Hume and his wife Pat were honoured by their own people in an “Appreciation Night”. Yet the purpose of ths post is just to tell MY John Hume “story”.

In 1974, I worked in a Belfast building which had shared accomodation with a Norn Iron “Government Department” and John Hume was a Minister in the ill fated pos-Sunningdale “power sharing Executive”.

As my Employer was not the Ministry, we occasionally got advance warning of the impending arrival of a “Northern Ireland Office Minister” (such as the unlovely Don Concannon) and his civil service “entourage”. There was a peculiar protocol. The Minister and entourage would sweep past us and head for the elevators where access to “normal” people was restricted. The Minister and his entouage got priority.

One morning, we had not been informed of the visit of the Minister for Commerce, John Hume. I was standing in the foyer had just pressed the button to call the Elevator and the cars drew up and John Hume and a few others sailed in. And I was in their way. A Nobody. And Im thinking this is is a bit awkward. I was after all just 21 years old.

If there was any awkwardness, John Hume did not feel it. Addressing me by my first name, he simply asked me what I was “doing here”. For we had actually met in different circumstances a few weeks previously. And there I was in the elevator with John Hume and the entourage, who were not exactly thrilled to be sharing an elevator with a Nobody. But I think thats the thing about John Hume……….to him Nobody is a Nobody. We are all Somebody. Thats the sign of a Man who is thoroughly and absolutely decent. A small thing to John Hume in 1974. A big thing for me in 1974. And more than thirty seven years later still a big thing to me.

Young people may not get the context of this Story. The SDLP holding its Conference in the Europa Hotel, Belfast in December 1973 (the feckin Europa Hotel for Gods Sake) and becoming part of a power sharing Executive was the watershed moments when the nationalist community (and people like me) stopped being invisible. That power-sharing Executive only lasted a matter of months and it would be over twenty five years before it was revived (after the Good Friday Agreement).

Yet theres a lesson here. Stormont “sucks you in” (as Patsy McGlone put it recently). Nationalists are no longer “invisible”. They……oops…….WE……are occupying top jobs in the Public Sector and Sinn Féin and SDLP ministers walk in and out of Government Buildings while earnest young Special Advisors and flunkies in the entourage talk into cell phones. “The Minister is running 15 minutes late but….” “The Ministers car is …..”. Nationalist MLAs eat in the Stormont Dining Room. Nationalist cuncillors are at ease in Councill Chambers, many have worn the “Lord Mayors” or Chairmans chain of office in our biggest cities, Belfast, Derry, Lisburn, Newry and many other towns. many nationalists are on Health and Education Boards, occupying high office.

Yet far too often they have forgotten their roots. They get “sucked in”.

And that really is what makes John Hume different. Nobel Prize winner and the holder of SEVENTY !!!!…….honoury doctorates around the World. Irelands Greatest Ever Person, who never forgets his roots.

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Science And The Arts….Never The Twain Shall Meet.

I hate Science. I wish I had a good reason to hate Science. But the best reason that I can come up with is……..that I dont understand Science. Surely not understanding something is good enough reason to hate it……like modern art, opera, ballet and rap music.

At Primary School (ie from 5 years old to 11 years old), nobody ever mentioned Science. It was a grown up subject for 11 year olds at Grammar School. That first year was I suppose Botany and Chemistry….although it was just called Science. We seemed to draw a lot of diagrams about the parts of a plant………Petal, Stem and er……….whatever. And we also did a thing with Litmus Paper and all I remember is sometimes it turned Red. Or was it Blue. And we did stuff with beakers and Crystals and made Distilled Water. Mostly I remember the smell of the Science Lab……that gassy leaky Bunsen (sp) Burner thing and cabinets full of large jars with powder and crystals.

In second year, I think we moved on to Physics. All I recall is hanging little pieces of metal on a kind of scale. No, I have no idea what that was all about either. The whole point of Grammar School was to teach us more  and more about less and less. At the end of Second Year, we had to drop either Science or Art. I was marginally better at Science and would have preferred to do it at Third Year. But as I did not actually excel at Science or Art, the decision was made for me by the School….probably because the Art Class was under-subscribed. So at age 13 my relationship with Science ended.

Actually Art was much worse. I dont think anybody can really be “taught” Art. I have difficulty drawing breath so drawing a straight line was kinda beyond me. Yet at the end of that Third Year, I had another choice made for me…Latin or Art. And somehow in Fourth and Fifth Year, I had to endure even more Art. Actually I quite liked Latin.

But that end of Third Year was the big decision. There were eight classes (forms) in Fourth Year……4LA, 4LB, 4LC, 4LD…….4SA, 4SB, 4SC, 4SD…….with about 23 people in each class. That “L” and “S” is significant…..”L” for (I suppose) Languages and S for (certainly) Science. Hurrah for 4LC (and 5LC and 6LC and 7LC of course).

Seven O Level subjects to be taken in that big exam in 1968 (History, Geography, Maths, English Language, English Literature, French and Irish). Three subjects to be taken for the even bigger A levels in 1970 (History, Politics and Literature).

But the thing is that by age 14, the School was effectively divided along “Arts” and “Science” lines. Old friendships ended. New ones began of course but it meant we were only really connecting with our Arts or Science “peers”. Of course this was the 1960s. We did not know “American” words like “nerd” or “geek” but in retrospect the Science guys were not “Fun”. They watched the Arts guys play football. They wore glasses. They still wore the school uniform and had short hair. We wore psychadelic shirts (well we started that in 1967 when the School went all “liberal”) and we had long hair. And we had different musical tastes. And we were rebels and the Science boys were focussed.

As a result, Ive never really “got” Science. And in 1969, I was probably more interested in the dawning of the age of Aquarius than I was bothered about Neil Armstrong walking on the Moon. To be honest……..what was all that about? Nobody in my lifetime will ever go there again. Science for the sake of Science? Should Science not find a way to deal with Famine before taking to the Final Frontier.

Anyway thru Star Trek, we can claerly see that the world created by people writing about Life in other galaxies is actually way better than anything that the Scientists have created. Science seems……amoral. Even IMMORAL if we think that spending billions on space exploration is a crime against Humanity. But lets stay with AMORAL…dissecting frogs, animal experimentation (necessary in a limited way for genuine medicine) and of course nuclear bombs.

But I think my animosity to Science is as much as my distance from it, my lack of understanding than it is to do with a moral stance. I use all to “justify” the antagonism.

Nearly everyone….including children know more about Science than I do.  Scientists deal in a world which is about experimentation and……..Certainty….proven facts. My world is a world of competing ideas…..philosophy, politics etc.

Yet recently I have been watching “The Big Bang Theory”. An enjoyable if unsatisfactory American comedy about Physicists, their alleged lack of social skills, their detachment. We should draw no lessons from a comedy except perhaps that some of the humour (specifically relating to “science”) is over my head.

Maybe thats the irritating thing. Im not used to ideas being “over my head”. I am not comfortable with Science. If you want a 2,000 word essay or power point presentation on 18th Century Cavalry tactics……I would not find it a problem………but the litmus test (to coin a phrase) is that I have no idea why the paper goes red or blue….and no idea why it is important.

The lighthearted Stephen Fry Quiz “QI” had Professor Brian Cox  (TVs favourite and most photogenic scientist) as a guest. And as a tribute, the programme….the quite interesting (QI) facts were all about Science. Yet it was way over my head. I have no idea about the theories on the rings and moons of Jupiter…..yet the comedians on the show were able to demonstrate a little knowledge. Their experience of Science went beyond 14 years of age. Or 16. maybe even 18. The point is that they knew SOMETHING and I know NOTHING and that is a matter of regret which no amount of my hostility to Science can disguise.

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The Presidential Election: The Opinion Polls On Last Weekend.

We are entering the final stretch of the Presidential Election Campaign. Voters go to the “real” polls on Thursday but two opinion polls for Red C and Sunday Business Post make interesting reading. I have taken the average below.

Seán Gallagher (Independent)………….39% (personally this looks high)

Michael D Higgins (Labour)………………26%

Martin McGuinness (Sinn Féin)…………15%

David Norris (Independent)…………………8%

Gay Mitchell (Fine Gael)…………………….7%

Dana Rosemary Scallon (Independent) <3%

Mary Davis (Independent)…………………..<3%

then with all the caveats, we can take out the bottom two…….and re-distribute maybe 4…….that should add no more than 1 to Higgins.
Mitchell going out leaves maybe 5 to play for. McGuinness will hardly benefit. Norris minimally.
Higgins might break 3:1 ahead of Gallagher.

Norris going out will put around 7 back in play again breaking mostly for Higgins.
With three left in the race, it is unlikely that Higgins will have closed the gap. And that Gallagher will be about 4 to 5 ahead. Possibly more.

McGuinness will go out on say 19. with maybe Gallagher leading Higgins by 5, 6 or 7. And not all SFs vote transferrable.
It seems that theres no way that Higgins can win without taking the lions share of the SF transfers.

The Republicans as Kingmakers, if you see what I mean.
Not the scenario that the Media in Dublin 4 want.
Sinn Féins vote has a socialist component. And a nationalist component.
And the weird thing about second preference votes is that they cannot (realistically) be mandated. The voters can be a contrary lot. And no Party ever really thanks another Party for getting that all important #2.

Which means the Media this week……and liberal commentators might be just a little nicer to Mr McGuinness.
McGuinness on these figures wont win.
But either possible result will be a source of amusement in Sinn Fein HQ.
Of course Sinn Féin wont get any credit from its liberal enemies if Higgins wins on SFs coat tails.
That result merely puts a wry smile on SF lips.
But Dublin 4 choking on their breakfast muesli if SF “cost” Higgins the election……now thats a belly laugh.

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Michael D Higgins…….Candidate for Presidency.

Michael D Higgins, 70 year old former Labour Party TD for Galway West. A poet, author and broadcaster and a Gaelic speaker. He has been Minister for An Gaeltacht (Gaelic speaking areas) in the Irish Cabinet.

Simply known as “Michael D”, he is I supposed much respected beyond the Labour Party. Yet his membership of the Labour Party might be a problem for him. The Labour Party is the junior partner in the Fine Gael-led Coalition Government and junior partners do not do well in Coalition. The austerity policies of the Government are having a negative impact on Irelands poor, Labours natural constituency.

Although running second in the polls, Michael D remains favourite. He will pick up transfers from across the board. Popular with the Media, a “National Treasure” he seems genuinely surprised that his age has been made an issue. Anxious to appear to be scrutinising all candidates equally the Media have challenged Higgins on his support for the Palestinians. Higgins describes himself as “spiritual but not religious”.

 

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Dana Rosemary Scallon…….Candidate For Presidency.

“Dana” as she is simply known is making her second bid to become President and is the rank outsider.

She was born Rosemary Brown (her professional name is Dana) and grew up in Derry. She won the Eurovision Song Contest in 1970 and enjoyed a reasonable career as a singer in Britain and Ireland. Scallon is her married name.

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, she became better known as a religious broadcaster and singer and in the 1980s moved to Uninted States where Christian Music is much more popular. She was based in USA for many years.

She returned to Ireland in 1997 and stood for President, gaining 13% of the votes. Basing her political career on Christian…particuarly Catholic values (anti-abortion of course)….Dana has been a Member of the European Parliament.

With the power and influence of the Irish Catholic Church in sharp decline, Dana seems a slightly odd figure. Her campaign has never really got off the ground. And it has been dogged by two controversies, one political and one sadly personal from the time she has spent in the United States.

Politically it is damaging that she took out United States citizenship. While seemingly for the purpose of being able to stay in USA, the oath that she took required that she give up allegiance to Ireland. It is probably not appropriate that she now stands in an election for President of Ireland.

The other controversy is a family dispute and court hearings in USA. And allegations of sexual abuse involving her brother and a neice.

 

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Sean Gallagher…….Candidate For Presidency.

Surprisingly perhaps, Seán Gallagher (Independent) is at 39% in an Opinion Poll. This has surprised many, not least because it is a massive jump on previous figures. Admittedly the Poll was conducted before last week’s third Presidentia Debate and frankly I thought Gallagher performed badly. Under persistent questioning about whether he had repaid a loan that a business had taken from a Bank, he stuck to the unconvincing mantra (I thought) that he had repaid “nearly all”.

Gallagher is standing as an Independent. He is a businessman and a panelist on RTEs “Dragons Den”……..a programme in which inventors and wannabee entrepeneurs pitch ideas at a group of millionaire business people who invest in some of the better ideas.

So effectively he is a millionaire TV celebrity businessman in the mould of Alan Sugar (Britain) and Donald Trump (United States).

As the discredited Fianna Fáil Party have not got a candidate in the field, Gallagher is perceived as their proxy candidate. He has been……to use his own term a “sporadic” member of Fianna Fáil and certainly Media attempts at branding him as the Fianna Fáil runner dont seem to have done him much harm.

He is certainly from the Fianna Fáil “gene pool” (ie people who would closely identify with Fianna Fáil without being a member). Yet I find that 39% poll rating hard to believe. As further testimony to the fact that Ireland is a much changed placed, Gallagher is actually a divorced (and re-married) man. And nobody…quite rightly…has mentioned it.

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Martin McGuinness…….Candidate For Presidency.

The Sinn Féin candidate, Martin McGuinness has stood down from his post as Norn Irons (Joint) Chief Minister in order to stand in the Presidential Election. It wasa surprise move an seen as “audacious” but his campaign seems to have settled down.

The Southern Media has been “vicious”. And the question is not really whether they have been “vicious” and gone beyond the normal protocols between politician and journalist…….rather the question is whether or not it is justified. I have little time for journalists who try and tell me that they have not gone overboard. I do have respect for journalists who say that they have…..and at least make an attempt to justify it.

There is an element of Hypocrisy. There always is. Journalists were cheerleaders for the Peace Process, culminating in the Good Friday Agreement (1998) which brought the Irish Republican Army (IRA) in from the cold. As the Agreement has settled in, it transpires that the chief beneficiaries are the IRA at the expense of the more moderate nationalists, the SDLP.

Sinn Féin, the political wing of the IRA is in the ascendency and increased its representation in Dáil Éireann (the Irish Parliament) from 5 seats to 14 seats in February 2011. Sinn Féin took 10% of the vote. Again this was not in the Peace Process “script”. The Northern success of Sinn Féin-IRA has spread to the South and the “contagion” is not being contained. The hysterical over-reaction o the Southern Media does them little credit.

Martin McGuinness was I think, gaining a little sympathy from ordinary voters. He has frankly not been entirely upfront about his IRA past. He claims to have left the IRA in 1974 (yes 1974!!) but few believe him. Yet the Media never managed to land a punch.

It was left to a single voter a Mr David Kelly to land a blow. In the 1970s Mr Kellys father was an Irish Army soldier, killed by the IRA as the Army rescued a kidnap victim in County Leitrim. Mr Kelly exposed McGuinness in a way that the Media had failed to do.

The Media over-reaction has I think , damaged the political process itself. To be so obviously hostile to one candidate inevitably means that the Media have been overly friendly to the other six candidates. But actually that has not worked well.

Journalists, stung by the publics reaction to their hostility to Martin McGuinness have become a little too anxious to compensate and the other candidates now seem to be fending off intrusive questioning.

For the IRA……it was a “Long War”. For Sinn Féin ….it is a “Long Peace”. They have the Patience. Its a slow process to build and keep building. In February 2011, Sinn Féin secured 10% of the votes cast. They are managing expectations, discounting talk of more than 15%. Opinion Polls put McGuinness on a lower figure than this. In reality, I see 17% as the point were Sinn Féin can claim a breakthru and the same figure cant be ignored by the Media.

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Mary Davis…….Candidate For Presidency

Mary Davis is an Independent. And is best known as being the Chief Executive of the very honourable charity, Special Olympics Ireland. She has been basing her campaign on NOT being a politician but this has come under scrutiny because she has served on some  State Boards (appointed by the Fianna Fáil Government) and other non-State Boards. The salary from some of these appointments has been quite high, severely denting her “outsider” image.

Opinion Polls suggest that she is now an also-ran.

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