Last week on SKY News, I saw an item which indicated that the Remain vote in Scotland, Wale, Norn Iron…and London would be more than 60per cent…but the Remain vote in “middle England” will be much closer.
London is atypical of England.
There is a possibility that nationalists in Scotland, Wales and Norn Iron could actually swing the vote. It is unlikely that “middle England” will take it well. Likewise if the “UK” as a whole votes to leave, then it will not go down well outside England.
Effectively there are two Referendums. There is the vote taking place in the “UK” (England, Scotland, Wales, Norn Iron) and there is the vote taking place within Scotland, Wales and Norn Iron.
I suggest that these are two different dynamics. What is good for (say) Norn Iron is not necessarily good for the “UK”.
At the weekend, I completed a Lucid Talk survey. For the record, I declared that I would be voting LEAVE. This may not be good for Norn Iron or Ireland. But while I “get” that progressive nationalists should make Norn Iron work, I dont feel any obligation to make the “UK” work. I should add that the six adults in my family are committed or leaning to a LEAVE vote.
Effectively I have two votes in this Referendum and that is how I intend to play it. I dont think my LEAVE vote will influence the Norn Iron result…where the balance of probability indicates most will vote REMAIN.
But that single visit to the polling station on 23rd June means that my vote will be counted twice….and it might just influence things when the “UK” vote is counted.
I do not feel any obligation to take the Referendum seriously…in the sense of weighing up my economic interests (REMAIN) against my animosity to David Cameron, Tony B Liar and Peter Mandelson. Likewise I dont want to weigh up my antagonism to the European Union with the unlovely leaders of the LEAVE campaign (Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Nigel Farage and Kate Hoey).
Some will say this is an irresponsible approach. But I cannot imagine anything more irresponsible than Cameron promising a Referendum merely to halt the growth of UKIP and deal with Eurosceptics in his Conservative Party. I wont play ball…and I am not thrilled to see the British Labour Party bail out a Tory Government.
The Debate is already degraded beyond the point of Reason where we should listen to the two sides and reach some kinda decision.
This is not to say that I am not taking the Referendum seriously. I am taking it all very seriously. At 10pm on 23rd June, three News channels will report the exit polls.
If you could close your eyes now and imagine the announcement…
“Britain has voted overwhelmingly to remain in European Union”…”Britain is thrown into chaos as polls suggest a majority of people want to leave the EU”…..”Too close to call as England votes to leave EU but rest of UK votes to stay”…..”Constitutional Crisis and even the Government might fall”.
Lets be clear. This Referendum is an opportunity. It is not a single issue. Your agenda might well be different from mine but take the opportunity to maximise YOUR agenda.
Keeping An Eye On the Czar of Russia 
Just see this (if it’s for leave) as a massive turn to the Right.
Cameron wouldn’t last 24 hours before the Real Tories step in along with the entitle UKIP Party.
The Scots, in theory, could engineer an escape route but what happens to the rest.
Throw in Trump and it doesn’t look good.
No it doesnt but things will get worse before they get better.
Sinn Féin strongly recommends REMAIN. This is because Brexit would be bad for Ireland, bad for business and trade, bad for our farmers and bad for human rights and workers’ rights.
Do you collect SInn Féin autographs?
Sinn Fein recommends remain because they are part of the establishment. I don’t know anyone with political nouse, including SF members that aren’t articulating this chance to put the boot it. Cross border trade can be a real boon and what about fishing, what about the way the EU screwed the Irish etc. But really this is a vote for the English, it has nothing to do with our side show province.
I still dont think people/analysts appreciate how divisive the aftermath of this Referendum is going to be.
The possibility of an mainstream English vote to leave being “undermined” by the Celtic regions and London voting to leave would be a major blow to those who believe that England is the natural leader of the “UK”.
But thats only half the story….Enda Kenny for example is rallying the Irish in Britain to vote to remain. Not to mention how voters originally from Eastern Europe will vote (IN) and the voters originally from Asia (OUT?).
This is a vote where after 10pm the British will realise that their nation has changed beyond recognition.
Today is the last day to register to vote and a distorted register has suited Tories for more than ten years. But the rush to bring 18 year olds into polling stations to vote IN is again a double edged sword.
As far as I can see the Youth vote is being confused with the Student vote….and the great “principles” being sold to “Yoof” is cheap RyanAir flights, Erasmus student exchanges and the cost of WiFi in Europe.
THis Referendum was a pathetic attempt to unite British people and whatever the result, it is actually going to increase division.
SDLP will be disappointed not to have persuaded even its own bloggers let alone its voters.
I am NOT one of SDLPs “”own bloggers”. I have never been and never will be a sycophant.
I can’t help but feel that the SDLP will be disappointed. This is one of the best pro-SDLP blog sites and I think it is influential.
It is not “one of the best pro-SDLP blog sites”. It is THE best.
Are you briefed or given lines to take by sdlp HQ?
I always wondered how your operating costs are funded since unlike slugger you seem never to crowd source or ask for funds from readers. Do you get funded by sdlp friendly donors?
I dont get any funding at all.
Frankly I dont need funding. This “Word Press” blog is free and is not very elaborate.
I have never been paid anything by SDLP. I have applied for jobs with SDLP on (I think) three occasions but I have never been shortlisted for interviews.
I have never received any expenses but public transport is free as I have a bus pass. I do use taxis occasionally but never claimed expenses.
Information ….I am on a mailing list from Press Office but it is sent to a email address that I rarely look at. These are basic press releases. I am never given special advance information on any announcement.
But I do get invited to major set-pieces.
The real SDLP support for this blog comes from individual members and thats also a bit hit and miss.
I could single out individual MLAs, councillors etc who have been very supportive and always give me a warm welcome at events.
And there are others who avoid me like I have the plague.
On one occasion before 2011 Assembly Election, a senior SDLP person successfuly neutralised me by promising that I (not then a member) would be ideal at heading up a semi-official unit of bloggers. But nothing ever came of it.
The only time I was officially taken aside and told that I had been too critical was in respect of a blog I wrote in late 2015.
Some invited journalists and guests at SDLP Conferences get a free “documents pack”. I think Delegates get a free pack.
I have never been a delegate so I have to pay £15 or £20 or whatever for mine.
Are you briefed or given lines to take by sdlp HQ?
I always wondered how your operating costs are funded since unlike slugger you seem never to crowd source or ask for funds from readers. Do you get funded by sdlp friendly donors?
Surely one should vote in terms of what is best for the local economy and society and not worry about who is making the case in other places? Both SDLP and SF are very clear on the benefits of EU membership locally and I think these arguments are correct. Its about our children – and our children’s children.
Also your position very detrimental to hard working farmers and small businesses who rely on exports across the border. Remaining in the EU is best for our economy our children for jobs best farmers. I can’t get the argument you are advancing for leave.
Mr Fitz,
What are your views on the effect on the re-unity debate is Brexit occurs, basically will it be a setback or a driver for change?
Too early to say.
The key thing is the degree of Chaos that ensues in the “UK” political system.
Norn Iron counts for little in British thinking. After all the economic argument for REMAIN is so obvious and yet we have a Secretary of State Villiers who is not going to make that argument.
Irish Unity depends on driving a wedge between unionism and Britain.
DUP are reasonably content at advocating LEAVE but it is all very low key….mainly because they have always felt that “UK” would vote to REMAIN.
The closeness of the polls is a worry for unionism.
A simple truth I learned years ago…England has always looked on Ireland as A PROBLEM.
IReland has always looked on England as THE PROBLEM.
The Aftermath of a any likely result will be chaos and thats more useful than a clear result either way.
In broad agreement with that.
My observation is that this is breaking down into a two issue campaign.
The economic argument which the remain camp are clearly winning hands down and the anti immigration argument which UKIP are clearly ahead on.
Of course the irony of being anti immigration by unionists is completely lost on some of them
Things here are either Stable or Stagnant (depending on viewpoint)
Or in a state of flux and semi crisis
I think the EU wants a united Europe so you get a UI and a UE if you vote remain.
I cant see a United Ireland in the context of a United Europe.
EUrope may well have made borders invisible but it has entrenched the invisible borders. And made the Republic of Ireland think in purely 26 county terms.
Bangordub which way will you vote, as someone who is said to have backed the sinn fein candidate in North down?
I’ll be voting Remain CV,
I did back the SF candidate in ND as you say although I voted down the card including the greens as my nbr 2. I have opinions on the local SDLP which I’ve outlined on my own blog – I emphasise, the LOCAL SDLP. Nevertheless, it is a matter of opinion and I’m aware that the local catholic church actively discouraged voters from voting SF.
As a political animal, this holds no surprises for me – I shall desist from commenting on theological matters however
I will be voting to leave and in the event of a brexit I will immediately be pleading that the 6 counties should be part of the EU!😎
Btw the claim that the EU is kind to workers rights and has workers interests at heart is a big ball of ….
The remain campaigners had better hope that Cameron,Blair etc have provided plenty of ‘jobs for the boys’ via the EU around the towns and cities in England, like they have here in the north, otherwise there could be a shock result on polling day.
It is all going to get very dirty.
Sinn Féin are COMMENT DELETED AS IT IS NOT A MEANINGFUL CONTRIBUTION.
It is also worth pointing COMMENT DELETED?
It is a pity that my response to Wolf Tone was censored on a very important issue of our times.
try raising your game as you occasionally make good points. Uncritical devotion to Sinn Féin is not the same as genuine debate.
This is precisely my attitude. I can’t understand how Irish and Scottish “nationalists” can be in favour of a supra-national, federalist steam roller. What ever happened to national self determination as a nationalist principle? Have we traded this fundamental principle for a few quid for community groups in south Belfast and two or three half decent roads?
That being said, if Brexit occurs I’ll be at the front of the queue demanding rejoining via a united Ireland. Re-unification at all costs.
Well, nobody can deny Ireland has done well out of Europe but personally I always regarded Sovreignty as more important.
Basically we should not have been thinking about European Unity before sorting out Irish Unity.
NO point in celebrating independence from Britain…and then bringing in the Belgians.
Ireland had very limited sovreignty because of the so called bail out.
My attitude for forty years has been that the Common Market/European Union would collapse under the weight of its own contradictions.
The 2005 expansion that extended the EU from 15 to 25 nations was the trigger for collapse added to the 2008 economic crash. Just look at the way Greece is being treated.
The influx of migrants from outside Europe partly because of wars that EUropean powers signed up to….and now the British Referendum and the Ukraine-Russia war are indicators that the project over-reached itself and is now in decline.
I always saw a parallel with USA….as the USA expanded west, it produced a Civil War.
Has anyone mentioned that the Spanish plan to take back Gibraltar the day after the UK leave the EU.
Are you watching boris nicola debate this Thursday (itv)?
Yes
Probablythe highlights.
The “spin”is more interesting than the Debate.
Boris is like Trump….he can say anything absurd…and it wont cost the LEAVE side a vote.
It is somewhat intriguing as johnson and sturgeon are big beasts. I suspect sturgeon will be formidable.
They are different kinds of beasts…so I dont think that it is going to be a straightforward debate.
I dont think the majority of English people thinking of voting LEAVE, will be persuaded to vote REMAIN by a nationalist who wants the break up of the “UK”
She might scare them into voting remain so as to avoid her calling a new referendum in Scotland.
It is quite interesting that the remain camp wanted her rather than say alan johnson
It is. She is the best politician in these islands.
Yes…SKY NEWS covered that one.
Project Fear is international.
There are an estimated 23,000 baptised Catholics in Gibraltar, making up 86 percent of the population. But they say the population of Gibraltar is more British than the British themselves.
Thats always the way.
Montserrat was the same. Very Irish. Very Monarchist.
Look at England. The Catholic aristocracy even those descendant from Tudor and Elizabethan martyrs are extremely anti-Irish.
Likewise the Jacobites (they havent gone away you know) are very anti-irish republican.
https://ig.ft.com/sites/how-should-i-vote-in-the-eu-referendum/
75per cent LEAVE.