So the Twelfth went well. No Violence.
And people including Gerry Kelly MLA (Sinn Fein) and Alban Magennis MLA (SDLP), the Chief Constable of PSNI, and Duncan Morrow take to the airways and Twitter to congratulate everybody concerned. Even Niall O’Donghaille (SF) whose effigy was burned on a bonfire was much more understanding than I would have been.Curiously I think that everything went well because it was SUPPOSED to go well.
If things had not been meant to go well…things would have turned out very differently.
So I suspect that all the main players were fully aware …from early in the week…that it would turn out well. There are enough “academic facilitators” to do the negotiating.
This looks like the weekend that the Orange Order needed “something”. Brownie points to take to the next meeting of the Parades Commission. It looks to me that they will feel that they have earned some credit and that the next difficult decision will go their way. Maybe it is already signalled and that it will be left to the Ardoyne residents to deal with a reversal.
While DUP and Sinn Fein pay lip service to their own communities, portraying the “others” as villains …and getting votes on that basis….they know that they cannot win every round, without damaging the sham of the political process they are involved in.
They may hate each other. But they need each other. Too much power and too many salaries depend on it.
Keeping An Eye On the Czar of Russia 
I think a problem for the OO may arise if the understanding between the OO and those who orchestrate the violence becomes clear and makes deniability implausible.
They have never really bothered about the “optics”
Denials were always a bit “implausible”.
just proves who is responsible for the violence – the ones who can turn it on or off
It can certainly be turned on and off.
There is substantial circumstantial evidence against the OO – if and when someone speaks out and spills the beans – I think they will be in a very difficult position as will the Viceroy herself.
I suspect the Tories have done a deal with the DUP – it is pretty unseemly it to put it mildly that herself has agreed to an enquiry – when the OO are flouting the Parades determinations – and trhe Viceroy appears to be undermining the legitimacy of their decision.
I think the Tories linking with DUP is unlikely. At best we are talking about 10 or 12 seats.
Too risky.