Mid Ulster: Preview

As the polls close in Mid Ulster, a few comments.

Iit should be a comfortable win for Sinn Fein. The emergence of a single unionist candidate sealed Francie Molloys victory as “comfortable” as however unlikely a unionist victory, it hgal rallied nationalist votes around him.

Patsy McGlone will poll well but not in any way a spectacularly. By common consents, he was the best candidate.

Alliance will not be happy with anything les that 5% of the votes which they will hail as a breakthru. I note that Mick Fealty on Slugger O’Toole was claiming that anything “north of 1%” would be a good resulbut th the absence of a UUP candidate and a sympathy vote for the Flegs issue should mean they poll well. Hard to know if Mick was writing as an analyst or helping Alliance manage expectations.

Had this bye election taken place in Upper Bann or East Derry, it might have told us more about Alliance standing.

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39 Responses to Mid Ulster: Preview

  1. factual says:

    Do you think Alliance could pick up protest votes – those wishing to make a statement against the major parties in the govt?

    Usually by elections have people voting for the small party to register a protest. Alliance could pick up some of these – anyone based up north sense if this might happen??

  2. hoboroad says:

    Less than 50% the turnout could be I wonder how much of Martin’s vote was a personal vote?

    • Quite a lot. A very high proportion of his surplus vote went all over the place in 2011 before finally ending up with running mates.
      This would have been interesting to see…Molloy being a much less charismatic figure than Marty.
      But I think the key thing here is the spectre of the single unionist.
      That will cost SDLP votes as nationalists get behind their most likely winner.

  3. bangordub says:

    Live blog from the count for those of you who get excited about election counts and any insomniac politico geeks out there who are interested, like me 🙂

  4. factual says:

    David Ford has turned up at count declaring Alliance % vote rise could be story of night.

  5. hoboroad says:

    According to Twitter Arlene Foster is at the count supporting Nigel. Lets hope she brings him the kind of luck she brought Rodney Connor the last Unionist Unity candidate.

  6. considering the Alliance 1 per cent base anything is possible

  7. hoboroad says:

    @LucidTalk: 29 boxes tallied so far, Molloy now pulling ahead and is now running 40%+

  8. hoboroad says:

    Last post taken from Twitter.

  9. factual says:

    ” By common consents, he was the best candidate.”

    Not sure this is true. Molloy was given the position of Principal Deputy Speaker in the Assembly. That is senior to the two other Deputy Speakers. Further, he was voted by MLAs to become the next Speaker. McGlone in contrast does not occupy this sort of position ,

  10. hoboroad says:

    @LucidTalk: 60% of boxes tallied so far, Molloy now pulling well ahead. Figures are – Bullick: 1.8%, Lutton: 31%, McGlone: 19.7%, Molloy: 47.6%.

    Taken from Twitter

  11. Oakleaf says:

    According to Lucid talk after 60% tally Alliance 1.8%, Lutton 31%, SDLP 19.7 and Sinn Fein 47.6.

    If that stays that way surely that is a disaster for Alliance after all that trouble. Sinn Fein and SDLP get their usual % when McGuinness Isn’t running.

  12. so far SDLP polling reaonably well

  13. hoboroad says:

    @LucidTalk: Lutton now falling back to less than 30% – Lutton: 29.5%, McGlone on 21%, Molloy on 49% – 90% boxes now Tallied.

    Taken from Twitter.

  14. Alliance has nearly doubled its percentage at the latest tallies – 1.8% clearly Ford is correct – the big story will be the Alliance vote

  15. hoboroad says:

    Another half hour to result is announced according to Sky News.

  16. hoboroad says:

    @LucidTalk: All Tallies done: Final projection – Bullick: 1.6%, Lutton: 31.5%, McGlone – 19.5%, Molloy: 47.4%. Late surge for Lutton with final boxes!

    Taken from Twitter

    • I will not say much until result known.
      But clearly these are just about the same percentages as in 2010.
      It looks like SDLP have gained about 5%.
      SF will have dropped but in fairness to them, Molloy was never going to get as good a result.
      A combined unionist vote did about as well as it could.
      Difficult to see how Alliance and Slugger O’Toole can put a good spin on that performance.
      Pressure on David Ford????

  17. Lutton did well – circling of the wagons has occurred and failed. McGlone has done very well for SDLP – best result since ’97? Sinn Fein not so well.

  18. hoboroad says:

    12,781 Lutton
    6,478 McGlone
    17,467 Molloy

  19. hoboroad says:

    Alliance 487 votes

  20. 5% decrease in SF share of the vote?, 7% decrease in turnout, McGlone doing well. Not a good night for Sinn Fein. And who are Alliance?

  21. Mick says:

    COMMON CONSENT kicking in I take?

  22. Just trying to figure why my post was removed?

    • It’s probably the fourth or fifth post of yours I have removed.
      You’ve done it to me.
      We are all having a happy wee day here laughing at David Ford, the Alliance Party, letsgetalongerism etc. Thats the designated narrative of the day.
      unfortunately too many Alliance members, supporters and apologists are trying to comment today. And it’s spoiling things.
      by the way how is that James Kelly obituary coming along?

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