Just two weeks to Texas. And an opportune time to welcome some Texan folks who have been given a link or about to be given a link to this Blog.

It might be helpful if I set out some explanatory notes. The Most Frequently Asked Questions that nobody has ever actually asked.

Keeping An Eye On The Czar of Russia……this references a mid nineteenth century small town newspaper., The Skibereen Eagle. The Editor of the paper notoriously commented on world events. One was about potential Russian expansion …warning that the newspaper was “keeping an eye on the Czar of Russia”. I believe that all Bloggers delude ourselves that we have any importance or influence.We are at heart no different from the pompous editor of  a small town Irish newspaper. For all the modernity of the Internet, it is not that much different.

Fitzjames Horse….references an 18th century Franco-Irish cavalry regiment. it has no other significance other than being a subject in which I am interested.

Subject Matter….inevitably there are some lighter cultural references. but most of the Blog is about (north of Ireland) politics. Politics is essentially short term but I like to see Politics in a historical context. The cliche that History repeats itself may only be partly true…but I am now 60 years old and over the course of my adult life have seen things happen which do have a historical precedent or near-precedent. To understand Politics is not just to understand different philosophies or media…the proper understanding of Politics requires an understanding of History.

Partisanship….essentially there are two tribes …and possibly even three tribes in Norn Iron. While I myself am a member of the moderate nationalist/republican/socialist  SDLP, this blog reflects the fact that I am broadly Irish nationalist, republican and socialist. I don’t think that this invalidates the Blog in terms of Honesty. I think a partisan blog CAN be honest. I think that reading different partisan blogs, properly argued is a better approach than reading bi-partisan blogs who try too hard to be balanced.

The Political Spectrum in Norn Iron….there are five main parties in Norn Iron. Sinn Fein (republican and closely linked to the IRA), SDLP (moderate republican), Alliance Party (agnostic on the constitutional status), UUP (moderate unionists who backed the Good Friday Agreement in 1998) and DUP (who signed up to an amended version some years later). All these Parties are involved in a power sharing Government with the extremes SF and DUP being the most powerful and in control. The two republican parties are socialist in nature. The two unionist parties are conservative in nature.

Conflict Resolution…a vexed subject with me. The Troubles 1969 to Good Friday Agreement in 1998 actually fizzled out in the early 1990s. The Agreement is based on the concept of Creative Ambiguity…complex and occasionally contradictory and necessarily vague, it was accepted by an overwhelming majority of nationalists and a narrow majority of unionists.

The Good Friday Agreement is failing…or as I believe already failed. Key proposals were never implemented. A Bill of Rights, an Irish Language Act, a means of dealing with Victims, a means of addressing the Past…none have happened. The Agreement itself has been further undermined by an amendment, the St Andrews Agreement, largely to get the DUP on board.

The vacuum has been filled by…among others…Conflict Resolutionists, who are second-guessing the Agreement.

Conflict Resolution….most conflicts are resolved.In the American context, at Yorktown, at Appomattix and on board USS Missouri, conflicts were resolved. This involved the complete defeat of entire nations and/or ideas and the complete victory of others. The subsequent Peace was based on that.

The Northern Ireland Troubles ended in stalemate. A mantra that we were all victims and that we were all to blame replaced any real Peace. The undermining and failure of the Good Friday Agreement has faciliated conflict resolutionists and a succession of ad-hoc, sterile proposals from academics and seemingly well financed (by Government and others) think tanks who are relentlessly imposing a Peace…as they think it should be.

There is a cliché that Peace should be more than the absence of War. But in the situation where we agreed in 1998 that there were no winners and no losers, it is a nonsense that a Settlement beyond that agreed should be effectively imposed, settling the winning and losing debate.

The Future….the absence of violence and the removal of the most blatant forms of injustice have produced a strange passivity. This is being pushed towards an acceptance of a broader status quo…the acceptance of a United Kingdom. It is a simple fact that Irish nationalism, to which I am fully committed thrives on a sense of Injustice. For me there is a small fear that removing injustice actually strengthens my traditional enemy.

Demographics….the recent Census (December 2011) is perhaps a watershed. The stark figures are that Norn Iron is now 48% Protestant, 45% Catholic with 7% Other. Protestant and Catholic are essentially inter-changeable terms with Unionist and Nationalist…..but only about 42% of population vote for nationalist parties. There is a shortfall in nationalist votes, mostly explaned by the agnostic Alliance Party.

The spread of this significant Catholic/Nationalist demographic……..much higher in the rural south and west and narrowly higher in Belfast…means that Protestants/Unionists are now clustered in large areas of population around Belfast and in County Antrim and north County Down.

More importantly, it means that Protestants are now a minority in the state that was created specifically for them and can no longer maintain a Unionist majority by relying on their core support but must reach beyond that. Their committment to do so…and their ability to do so is a major doubt.

The Flags/Flegs Dispute.…this is a dispute ongoing for seven weeks now. Starting on 3rd December 2012. And probably sums Norn Iron up better than any history book. Belfast City Hall…iconic for Unionists has been flying the British Flag on a daily basis for over a century. But the demographics of the City has changed to the extent that the City Council is now 24 Nationalists (SF & SDLP) 20 Unionists (mostly DUP) and 6 Alliance Party holding the balance of power.

The proposal that the British Flag be brought down was made by Nationalists and predictably opposed by Unionists. The Alliance Party proposed a compromise that it fly on a specified number of days (nineteen) to mark public occasions such as the birthday of a member of the British Royal Family. This compromise was passed angered Unionists to the extent that Belfast and other places have had often violent protests…and perhaps ironically and predictably the relatively harmless Alliance Party has taken most of the flak. I recommend that you read the blog posts which reference the Flags/Flegs dispute.

So again…welcome to this Blog. Looking forward to seeing you all in Texas.