I have been reading a lot about the old Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu recently. Executed….actually pretty much murdered along with his wife after a show trial on Christmas Day 1989….those images of the old despots on the balcony of the Presidentiazl Palace….remain the defining moments….along with the fall of the Berlin Wall….of the fall of Communism in Eastern Europe.
Few old enough to have seen the news footage will forget the look on Ceausescu’s face as the Mob turneagainst set him.
I wonder has that point been reached in East Belfast. Memorably in 2010, Peter Robinson “lost” the support of the good folks at the Belmont Bowling Club. It is hard to think that the Belmont Bowlers will have been impressed by the mob behaviour around Alliance Party offices at the Holywood Arches.
Robinson, MLA for East Belfast has not ventured out into the streets of his own constituency and seems to be in a Stormont bunker. He has lost middle class respectability AND now seemingly lost the Mob. Certainly the mood on the DUP-UUP benches at the City Hall last night was sombre.
Is it the beginning of the End? For the Institutions? Certainly Theresa Villiers’ floundering about in TV interviews inspires little confidence. And Robinson and Nesbitt have become invisible.
There are pious statements from SDLP and Alliance that “politics must be allowed to work”. I have some sympathy with this view….not least because the suspension of Stormont would leave the same democratic deficit which we saw in the 1980s and 1990s.
But there is an element of special pleading….politicians have careers and so do staffers, advisors and all the rest of the entourage. And clearly there is a danger that another generation of politician…..Conall McDevitt, Gareth Robinson, Judith Cochrane etc may lose the chance to contribute to Society.
But the SDLP needs to get past thinking that the Good Friday Agreement is the Holy Grail. Yes it was a noble attempt to resolve the Conflict….but fatally flawed by Creative Ambiguity. And compromised by the St Andrews Agreement….and I think it has suffered a slow lingering death by Inaction….on say Victims and the Irish Language. The Good Friday Agreement is on a life support machine and the kindest thing would be to make the decision to turn it off.
Keeping An Eye On the Czar of Russia 
Interesting times. When and if Teresa(who has played a nice straight bat so far) has to call in the troops then it will be curtains. Not because of Loyalist violence but because of the likelyhood of Republican violence.
If the ‘institutions’ (apt term in some ways) go this time and hopefully they wont, then they wont be coming back for a long time and we can look forward to further balkanisation outside of the counties with a land border with the South.
..and this will simply prove that ‘peace and reconcilliation’ dropped by rather to juickly for our our fellow Irish Unionists.
I think you’re giving too much credit to Theresa VillIers. She reminds me of Joyce Grenfell on the hockey field as a gym teacher in 1950s St Trinians movies.
When the collapse comes…..it will be quick.
We were prepared for a whole Decade of Centenaries but increasingly this looks highly unlikely. Will there actually be a Stormont in 2016. ….for Easter or Somme commemorations.
Balkanisation? Yes….take a look at eleven councils emerging…..no flag flying in west and south of the PRAVVINCE (sic) and flag flying in east….I suspect British Govt might impose a designated flag solution. It would seem odd that in the absence of Stormont, we would have an obvious (and from my perspective ….welcome) chipping away of Britishness in Tyrone, Fermanagh and a lot of Derry, Down and Armagh.
Overall there will be effectively joint sovereignty which is an advance for nationalism.
What happened????
Well how was Unionism so stridently confident in the autumn and has seemingly imploded in a matter of weeks…..I think it is the Census has induced paranoia.
The job of the viceroy is surely to reflect the government(s) policy and not to panic. I’m not sure Owen Patters would have played such a straight bat as he had a distinct whiff of old squire(Ulster is my country) about his perosonage. Anyway credit to her (in my opinion) for not making the situation worse.
My reference to balkanisation doesnt really apply to the southern/western (Northern) counties as they simply blend in with the South anyway but other areas(and particualrly Belfast) will probably become much more volatile.
I dont think the British government will alter the flags policy as they will know that will result in Nats getting out those old rusty pikes/AK47s , they will simply explain to Unionists (as they did in the run up to St Andrews) that they will not have as much as they have now under direct rule.
I dont think it will come to that, the boy Robbo is an escapologist of some repute. I’d call it 70 – 30 that Stormo will stay open for business.
I’d say that 70-30 is reasonable assessment. I’d say 60-40 is also reasonable and that there is continuing erosion. I don’t think that the System can withstand more events like “Flegs”
I would call it at 100-0
You guys vaslty over-react to these flag protestors. If the GFA is brought down over this I will eat my hat!
Factual,
If troops need to be deployed on the streets I dont think it will survive – otherwise I think it will.
PSNI seem to be doing a superb job.
yes they are doing a really good job.
..but heard the Police Federation chap saying they were at ‘breaking point’ – that sounded a bit like code for – much more of this and we need to call in the troops.
Can Stormo (SF) survive if troops on the street – I doubt it.
To some extent the Police Federation are always complaining. But I also think that troops on the street would be a very serious step.
As always the debates on TV are interesting but the messages passing between the First Ministers Office and NIO and the Chief Constables staff would be even more interesting.
And by the way………….where is David Ford? Not seen him for weeks.
Seven Million pounds it has cost to police these flag protests. And the CBI in the North say some foreign investors have lost interest in setting up shop in the Six Counties. So much for the New Northern Ireland.
re. “I think it is the Census has induced paranoia.”
I am haveing a (slightly bad tempered) debate about that theory(I’m agin it) with foootballcliches over on the other side of the fence which has run into a bit of an impasse – I’m interested in other opinions(even if agin me) if you can post something on there. I really think there is serious evidence of Nat spin.
http://www.openunionism.com/a-plague-on-both-our-houses/
I took a look there.
I cant of course get sucked into a unionist message board. But some points.
I dont think it is a matter of “spin”. Rather it is a question of the glass being 45% full……….or 55% or 48% empty.
Changes are barely noticeable over a five year period but over a longer term (my 40 years of adult life for example) they become clearer. Unionism is shrinking and probably the geographical shrinking is more important than the demographic shrinking. It provides less certainty and unionist confidence/paranoia needs certainty.
Whole swathes of Norn Iron will be greener. Even Belfast. Leaving a rump of “real or traditional” unionism impotent in (say) Castlederg, Moneymore, Limavady, Markethill and Annalong…………and really only in the majority in County Antrim and north Down. Effectively the River Bann is the frontier……..from Coleraine to Poratdown to Banbridge.
But unionism will be under attack from secular metropolitanism in (say) North Down and Lagan Valley.
Take for example the PSNI. The key here is that it is around 30% “Catholic” across the board………..its not subject to regional variation. So getting stopped by a four person patrol in (say) Omagh, Crossmaglen, Derry, Coalisland means its more than likely one is a Catholic…………..and likewise in Larne, Carrickfergus and Newtownards. Indeed increasingly the flag protestors are anxious about the number of Catholics in uniform.
So Unionism cannot be exclusive anymore. It could be in the 1950s and 1960s. But now they turn their anger on Alliance…….”Smash the Alliance Party” say the banners but increasingly that is the very Party they need most.
There is of course a discrepancy between the Catholic figure (45%), the nationalist figure (42%) and the exclusively “Irish” figure of 30% but I dont as a republican/nationalist see this as a problem. In terms of votes………there is no credible “lets getalongerist” party in nationalist areas. Its a straight forward headcount. And as nationalists realise that there is the prospect of a seat…..look at South Belfast the balance switches. East Antrim more recently. Strangford next.
Indeed the Alliance Party only has one seat (South Belfast) where the nationalists have a quota.
The “Northern Irish” designation seems like a bit of a cop out.
In the context of “mood music”, I would hate to use words like “critical mass” or “tipping point” but there is a recognition that the “new” Norn Iron has to involve two communities to survive at all………….and increasingly we have seen that it is hardcore unionists who are sabotaging the project.
Nationalists, lets getalongerists and loyalists………..there are just too many enemies to the “old” Union.
re. “I cant of course get sucked into a unionist message board.”
I really dont understand this ‘segregationist’ attitude, it is an interesting concept of the red-white-and-blue and green-white-and-gold kerbstones on the interwebespeherebloggerything. Surely it is more interesting talkiing with those you disagree with – thats what makes Slugger so addictive(thank feck I’m banned) … a good basis for a seperate thread.
I think the ‘spin’ comes from Nats claiming a great census for them and a bad census for Prods when as you say “There is of course a discrepancy between the Catholic figure (45%), the nationalist figure (42%) and the exclusively “Irish” figure of 30% “.
If I were a Unionist I would be demanding a border poll – and thats my prediction of how Robbo and Unionism gets out of hole they have dug for themseleves – if I were a Unionist Leader(everybody has their price and mine is spectularly low) thats precisely what I would do.
Hopefully they wont have the sense to go for that- but if they do then you will know who to blame.
Oh I’m just getting too old for confrontation. I really only use Slugger when something needs to be said. I am a fairly committed republican/nationalist and fully accept the validity of the unionist argument but ultimately it’s a sterile debate.
I am really a pan-nationalist at heart….and teasing out the way the nationalist case has to amend to suit the “climate” is by far the most interesting thing for me.
Just back from a wee walk down to our village shop……and was actually thinking about the “spin” comment……and ultimately the task for a nationalist is to bring Irish unity closer…..or at least keep the dream alive.
Ultimately in the course of my lifetime and there’s probably at best 15 years of active life left…..I’d be reasonably confident that we have moved on in forty years.
Of course the task for a unionist is the exact opposite and I think they are in a worse place than forty years ago and are now in totally defensive mode.
re. “Of course the task for a unionist is the exact opposite and I think they are in a worse place than forty years ago and are now in totally defensive mode.”
I would agree with that – the question that remains unanswered after the census is how much worse and the Nat spin is suggesting a bit more than the census results would suggest (if we go on National identity).
I’m nort sure any sensible Unionist – provided they are not interested in all the sectarian malarkey of flags and parades – has that much reason to be on the defensive.
To be honest I think most unionists are pretty undefensive to the point of not voting. The flag protesters really aren’t representative and people overreact to them. The era of the angry prod is over. They are pretty happy. Few bother with these boards-where they only see rancour.
The census results were much as expected, indeed the populations seem to be heading towards a final destination of no-overall control (in religious terms) and if anything the growing middle ground that is happy to be part of the UK and thats secular anyway seems to make the religion census results beside the point. They’re enjoying Ravenhill and glad that there are no bombs any more.
Don’t be misled into thinking the OO and the Flags protestors are other than a smallish section of the unionist people. That small obnoxious section does great disservice to other unionists to the point where you can really see them as completely different groups.
A UI can not come about without a kind of positive engagement, and winning of the centre ground based on a mix of charm and logic. That means reaching outside the catholic community beacuse there will be too many catholics who are in favour of the status quo and because neither religious community is likely to gain overall control in population share.
In 15 years time one might have an SF first minister (O’Dowd? O’Neill?) because SF may be the largest party. However, of course, if the SDLP don’t decline we will still have a DUP first minister.
To their credit,Sinn Fein are not personally ambitious. I don’t think First Minister interests them…..effectively it’s a Joint Office. It’s not so much about being the Leader of the biggest party….it’s more about the Leadership of a tribe.
When it comes to the First Minister, it is a case of vote SF (as opposed to SDLP) to get the DUP out. Only if SF have more MLAs it will happen.
Nonsense.
The legislation says FM comes from largest party. SDLP is a small party. Only SF can be largest party. That’s why a vote for SF will help get the DUP out of the FM job and a vote for SDLP will not.
It still has to go thru the Assembly.
Sorry to go off topic but here’s something that is real SDLP territory:
http://www.sdlp.ie/index.php/newsroom_media/newsarticle/durkan_manner_of_mccauslands_nihe_announcement_an_act_of_rank_cowardice
Absolutely….this is going to be a major issue and we will see how Sinn Féin react. The NIHE was set up expressly to limit the abuse of housing allocation and has been …on balance…a success.
My family among many who were beneficiaries.
Full on attack on Conall over at Fealty Towers btw Mr Fitz
I saw that.
And I have just published a post here “Prostate-Gate”.
Conall was foolish to issue a press statement on a private matter for Gerry Adams.
The effect has been the thread on Slugger headlining him. It is an ill-informed thread on public/private health care and written by an American based contributor. Nuff said.
The Mick Fealty thread. I have contributed to….an unworthy thread also and more to do with ridiculing Gerry Adams than any real principle.
..and a really well written full on attack.
FJH,
re. “It is an ill-informed thread on public/private health care and written by an American based contributor. Nuff said.”
Now remember when go over to yankeeland(next mointh?) you are going to have to bite your tongue.
Earlier today I posted on an American site that it is 27 days to I go to USA and 28 days to I am deported..
Luckily I am going to the “liberal” part of Texas.
A few things chaps.
i) I do believe that some are being very pessimistic on this and other sites. It is not the 1980s all over again, it’s a number of eejits and thugs who the cops have not decided to rein in, not the end of the GFA.
ii) Chances of troops being redeployed? 10% at most and tbh, I want to say 0% but it is slim to say the least folks. This is some working class unionist ‘Occupy’ movement, it is going no where and I expect it to fizzle out by the end of the month.
iii) Sammy, as I have noted at length over and over and where my bone of contention is is not with your theory, it’s with your analysis and subsequent conclusions something you have not really acknowledged. I await my comment to be moderated over there but the gist is that you have in effect made a number of conclusions from incomplete information, that’s the version without all of the buns being thrown. Personally, you should have given a massive health warning with your conclusion, instead, you just weighed on in and said Nats are deluded about the results without providing a complete analysis or proof of this, hence why I said you are pissing in the wind without the evidence to back it up.
The bottom line for me…will be whether nationalism will be better or worse placed at the end of my life as it was at the start of my life.
Notwithstanding global events……which might happen in 21st century….world wars, europe imploding, economic crisis……then I am pretty happy.
Its the mood that is created.