Ardmajell and indeed others have raised the prospect that it might all be about the census figures next week. Certainly it is safe to assume that the First Minister, Deputy Minister and others have seen the Report.
Ardmajell points out for example…that Catholics may not have declared themselves “Catholic” in 2001 and thus gave the impression there were fewer than they actually are. As I recall, 2001 was the year in which I became a Jedi Knight. I know I considered that answer ……..but I cant remember if I actually went thru with it. As an Irish citizen, I like to treat the British Census with all the respect it deserves.
Either way in the years after 2001, I was excommunicated from the Latter Day Church of Jedi Knights for saying “Live Long and Prosper” instead of “May the Force be With YouPolitical anoraks might be annoyed at people who dont treat the Census with proper respect. The Dissertation I worked on in 2008/2009 necessitated that I spend about three months reading Census details 1961-2001 (I think it was Level 4) in the Library “Stacks” in Queens University. I would hate to think that a goodly part of my dissertation was based on responses by people such as……..myself.
Speculation about a Census is always much better that the actual Report. For rather like an audience at the Late Late Show, a Census Report will have something for everyone in the audience.
Thus there will be more Protestants than Catholics. This is good news for unionists. And there will be a growing number of Catholics and that is good news for nationalists. The number of births might be good news for nationalists. The number of Gaelic speakers…..well all harmless exaggeration.
Of course threvaluations will be interesting for thsnapshot hot taken in April 2011 is in reality about projections into the future and the number of schools,houses etc that will be needed is of much less interest than how we will vote in years to come. It. Is Demographics…the fancy name we give to a sectarian head count. The biggest clue is Religion but unionists will look for comfort in the numbers describing themselves as ‘British’ or ‘Northern Irish’ …but really this time it is not likely that the Demographic Time Bomb will be de-fused. I hope there will be some hints at a change in voting patterns in Mid Ulster, Armagh-Newry,Fermanagh-South Tyrone,Upper Bann etc……
The official response Weill be interesting. Will there be what we used to call gerrymandering? Surely not. But maybe just a little……ahem sociaengineering.
Keeping An Eye On the Czar of Russia 
I know you’re conducting boycott of all newspapers this is from a interview with Martin McGuinness for the Belfast Telegraph.
On the prospects of Catholics voting for the DUP and against Irish Unity as Peter Robinson predicts:(Laughs) Peter is suggesting that there is going to be an avalanche of Catholics voting for the DUP. I smiled when I heard him because I knew it would go down like a lead balloon in the nationalist and republican community.If he is so confident about the outcome of a border poll, you would think he would be anxious to have one to prove his point. In my view a united Ireland is inevitable and it is certainly more likely than a voluntary coalition which doesn’t include Sinn Fein.Perhaps Peter is saying these things because he was anticipating that the census results on the 11th will show a rise in the number of Catholics.Read more: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/martin-mcguinness-interview-an-avalanche-of-catholics-voting-for-dup-when-i-heard-that-i-smiled-16247182.html#ixzz2ETkrPABE
I think he is right. I’m just surprised that serious media people actually bought that line of Robbo
Don’t mess wish sci-fi FJH!!!
You’v gone too far this time!
Oh I love Star Trek.its Science Fact that annoys me. Star Trek has spoiled it for me. There’s nothing’s up there that’s better than anything Roddenbury created.
Greater Belfast will be interesting. Hopefully changed enough to stop unionists crying about Belfast being gerrymandered.
Interesting how people left Belfast to live in Holywood, Dundonald, Newtownards, Lisburn, Templepatrick, Newtownabbey and Carrickfergus and now want a voice in what happens at the City Hall………because they commute!!!
You already have Gerrymandering there, look at F/ST, its even starting to resemble the famed Salamander that coined the term, every prod in the area jammed into the only seat in the area they can win.
Half of the Shankill in Nth Belfast and Half in West Belfast, why when the voter numbers are low in West Belfast wouldn’t you put all of west belfast into the seat called West Belfast? why would you instead move some nationalist wards in Lisburn into West Belfast? It wouldn’t be the fact that you kill 2 birds with one stone , costing nationalists a Stormont seat in LV and helping the Unionists hang on in Nth Belfast? and there are plenty of other “anomalies”
Call me cynical if you like, but i don’t belive for a moment that this is coincidence or luck of the draw and are very suprised so little is said about it.
The splitting of the Derraghy ward putting the northern half in west Belfast and the southern half on Lagan Valley was no doubt very dodgy.
The northern half of Derraghy contains thousands of nat voters in the new and expanding estates of Lagmore/Mount Eagles.
Saying that the southern half of the ward is pretty much mixed now as well.
When are the stats for the wards released?
The boundary changes that were proposed looked a bit dodgy for nationalists. The Lib Dems have done a good job blocking them. I have not looked at them for a while but certainly from a nationalist perspective, Upper Bann was a nightmare. The current break down is 4 unionist and 2 nationalist but on current boundaries, nationalists (SF) would pick up another seat within ten years..
The proposals split up Lurgan wards and put Aghagallon (three miles from Lurgan) in with Lisburn. I used to live in Aghagallon and all the shopping, travel to schools, employment etc is towards Lurgan.
Additionally this is the area that Dolores Kelly (SDLP) comes from and it would have been almost impossible to defend that seat.
Going from 18 to 16 would only be half the problem. Going from 6 seats per constituency to just five would also be a massive change.
The problem that the people working out boundaries have to deal with is the pressure to keep the proportion of winners/losers much the same and I think thats impossible. Parties will lose out.
But theres no way the west and south can be re-drawn without making it all more “green”. Belfast is tricky especially going from four constituencies to three (four parties hold seats so that means somebody loses out…prolly SDLP).
But I actually think reducing the number of councils from 26 to 11 might be even more of a gerrymander.
Of course the SDLP are going to lose out, why? because they are the party of least resistance from the community of least resistance.
The unionists on this and many other matters whine, complain, scaremonger, manipulate. threaten, bully, intimidate and when suits riot and it pays off for them.
1 vote 1 value should be the primary principal in drawing up electoral boundaries, communities of interest and geographical cosiderations should come a very distant second, if at all, and only effect boundaries when they dont effect the first principal. it seems to me to be the other way round at the moment, to the detriment of the nationalist community.
1 vote 1 value is a civil right that the SDLP might consider championing, there is nothing better in polictics than a good meaty local issue that comes with a large dollop of self interest.
When its all boiled down, isn’t what we want in the end, 1 vote 1 value in Ireland? Not an outrageous demand in my opinion but Irelands enemies will do whatever they can to stop that happening and 1 vote 1 value needs to be fought for and defended at every turn.
PS I can’t see any intrinsic reason why moving from 26 to 11 councils would be a gerrymander, of course it depends on how the boundaries are drawn.
If you wanted to structure the councils purely on good governance principals, the six counties and a Greater Belfast would be the sensible way to go.
It would create economies of scale, give the councils the ability to plan and implement large/regional infrastucture and other projects, less other councils to deal with, less red tape, more efficent and effective use of resources, better and more services to the community, real purchasing power and effect in the local economy and i could go on and on.
It would also have the required parochial element with the counties, wouldn’t it?
Ive just spent the last 3 years implimenting a similar process in the Northern Territory and while the NT is not NI, even an old cynic like me was genuinely astounded at the postive and dramtic changes it brought.
But the SDLP along with all the major parties in the north have a conflict of interest here don’t they?
The more Councils means more Councillors doesn’t it? and with more councillors comes more resources and all the other benifits of office, publicity, profile, jobs and income, party organisation etc.
These are issues that are more acute for parties like SDLP and UUP, that and the loss or undermining of local political fiefdoms for all parties will be the real reason for little meaningfull reform of local government in the north.