Sammy McNally raised some interesting points in a comment on my earlier thread in which I suggested that the Decade of Centenaries…..and the Half Centenaries……provide an opportunity for SDLP and UUP.
I want to develop that point further, with particular reference to the SDLP of which I am a member.
I consistently voted for SDLP from 1970 (technically Gerry Fitt was still Republican Labour at that point) until 1993. I switched to voting Sinn Féin for localised personal reasons….although my wife a much more forgiving person than I am continued to vote SDLP. I suppose it was some time after 1998 Good Friday Agreement that I would have really got over that localised personal issue and voted on logical issues….my principles and self interest. There was of course a choice. The SDLP and belatedly Sinn Féin are two constitutional nationalist parties. They are therefore the only choice I make at the ballot box. I voted Sinn Féin because they seemed less likely to compromise on the basics. The SDLP……particuarly some leading members seemed too anxious to compromise. I think the fact that so many nationalist voters drained away from the SDLP as evidence that many felt the same way.
To some extent, the St Andrews Agreement in 2007 was a turning point. Sinn Féin were overly enjoying the trappings of power and had a rather arrogant streak. They were the Party I saw as overly anxious to hold the reins of power, almost for its own sake.
Therefore I voted SDLP in the 2009 Euro Elections, at Westminster 2010 and the Assembly 2011.
From my perspective:
1998: SDLP (constitutional) SF (almost constitutional) but personal issues made me vote Sinn Féin. And the more general nationalist population edged towards SDLP.
2003: A more “logical” choice but voted Sinn Féin. SDLP over-anxious to compromise. SF seen as standing up to unionism.
2007: Two constitutional parties but SF stronger on the basics.
2011: Two constitutional parties but as I saw it SF just too arrogant and the SDLP needed to be bolstered as nationalism needed a choice.
2015: Now much too early to say but as I have indicated they are both constiutional………but really which Party is more prepared to stand up to Unionism and the Alliance. Sinn Féin has after all promoted the Alliance gerrymander. Mainstream nationalist voters are bound to be confused. Having given Sinn Féin the benefit of the doubt over SDLP as the stronger constitutional nationalist party…….it might be logical to see SDLP as stronger next time round.
Now I dont deny that there are difficulties in becoming or seeming to become more stridently nationalist. SDLP fights Sinn Féin west of the Bann where Alliance only exists on paper. Sinn Féin has only one rival…….SDLP in all constituencies. But in the ring of constituencies around Belfast…….East Antrim, South Antrim, Lagan Valley, Strangford and North Down (this one unwinnable for any nationalist)…….the SDLP fights on two fronts (SF and Alliance). SDLP will however be helped by the Alliance Party’s drift to the “right”……..with Parsley, Bradshaw and Hamilton on board.
So the question is …..which constitutional nationalist party stoops further to accomodate unionism?
Keeping An Eye On the Czar of Russia 
The Alliance party apparently exists in Colraine, then again SDLP exist in Pottinger
North Down (this one unwinnable for any nationalist)
And why are the SDLP not going after the previous Unionist vote a la Peter and the UUP ?…………..
For the foreseeable future, I think it is unwinnable and thats how I desribed it because I did not want the post to be partisan. As I have said, I feel North Down is “different” from the other seventeen. Detached. But I certainly think the starting point is a council seat in Holywood DEA. That would be empowering for the wider North Down nationalist community.
FJH.
I do agree that it is unwinnable in the medium term but there is a 10% core vote there for the winning at least which should deliver some council seats. Plus my central point was that, as the Unionist parties trip over themselves trying to attract the “Unicorn” vote, what do you think of the chances of a similar reciprocal scheme? Personally I think very little as Margaret Ritchie demonstrated
I think there is some possibility there. But more in the sense of a “socialist” vote (based on public sector or welfare cuts) than a “liberal unionist” vote. I think the priority for now is to shore up SDLPs “republicanand nationalist” base which has been slipping away. The rot can stop if mainstream nationalists realise that the SDLP is more in tune with them than Sinn Féin rushing to occupy the middle ground.
Totally agree with you! Keep us “posted”
re. “Sinn Féin rushing to occupy the middle ground.”
“Sinn Féin rushing to occupy the middle ground”
i think that is little bit of an exaggeration/wishful thinking – the insurgents dont even take their Westminster seats. Turning up at social/sporitng/royal events hardly qualifies as occupying the middle ground. Both the DUP (as we saw Robbo last night down in the papal belt) and SF are broadening the definition of their respective creeds of Unionism/Republicanism to include more prospective worshippers/voters – that does not mean weakening the resepctive central tenets just allowing more people to become devotees.
I totally agree with you re: the SDLP shoring up the traditional nationalist vote. Though whether they are able to/willing to do that is a another thing. As I see it the SDLP have become a mish mash of groups with no real direction. No question they have to regain that core nationalist vote and quit pandering to anyone that MAY listen…over the past year SF have left themselves open the major thing in my opinion was the justice ministry – far too eager to deny a fellow nationalist party another executive seat which was rightfully theirs. The problem was as I have heard from nationalist voters that under Ritchie the lines between SDLP and Alliance became distinctly blurred and it will take a huge effort from McDonnell and co to turn that around.
Yes. The SDLP has certainly been accused…not least by me…of not listening to its own supporters.
Obviously Barry McElduff and co will remain on message and nobody will “get” McGuinness going to Windsor Park.
But that leaves a lot of mainstream nationalists scratching their heads and wondering what is going on.
Arguably the Peace Prosess has bedded down enough for Sinn Féin to have the confidence to be seen to “compromise”. Which is an advantage over the SDLP a decade ago.
But can SDLP re-establish itself with the core nationalist vote without losing “moderate” friends?
I think they can ……because there is a socialist vote to be gained out there. The Aliance are no moderates. And Alliance-Sinn Féin have facilitated the gerryymander. Also Alliance have moved to the “right”. There will be tensions in the Alliance Party (if not already there). Opportunities for traditional moderates in the Alliance Party will be limited with Parsley, Bradshaw and Hamilton seeking advancement for themselves and their type of Tory Alliance.
A key point also is that a senior generation of Alliance people are no friends of Sinn Féin and DUP. And wont be thrilled at Alliance over-eagerness to facilitate them.
I am not by any means suggesting that SDLP are on the rise. Merely that there are clear signs that the rot has stopped, a line drawn and they have the people……..and opportunity….to start hitting back.
The idea that it is SF that dont want the SDLP to get the Justice Ministery is I believe purely SDLP propaganda – if anyone has proof to the contrary please supply it. The only way the DUP could be lured into transferring Justice to Ireland was by ensuring that SF didnt get the post – the DUP would have been crucified at the polls if they had agreed to let SF have the job and SF recognised this and agreed to exclude the post from d’honttery.
If the SDLP want a Justice drum to bang then as mentioned elsewhere they should try the-soldiers-in-the-undergrowth which SF signed up to.