Assembly Election 2017:North Antrim

Posted on February 28, 2017 by fitzjameshorse

The key difference between Assembly 2016 and Assembly 2017 is that only five MLAs will be elected from each constituncy. For at least eighteen MLAs and their staff, this election has come four years too early.
The percentage of votes required to get elected…the quota…will be higher but I am not thinking in terms of percentages. Rather I am thinking in terms of votes cast in May last year and the number of votes likely to be cast this year.
Too often …analysts with some justification …focus on the statistics of elections. Arguably this one is different. There might actually be Politics involved.

So …North Antrim
May 2016: Quota: 5857
DUP: (3 seats) 17655
TUV: (1 seat) 7354
Sinn Féin (1 seat) 5297
UUP (1 seat) 4406
Others: SDLP 3093, Alliance 1318, TUV 1027, UKIP 1072, Green 513, Labour 243, Tory 92.

2017 Candidates:
DUP: Mervyn Storey, Paul Frew, Philip Logan.
All outgoing.
TUV: Jim Allister, Timothy Gaston.
Allister is outgoing.
Sinn Féin: Philip McGuigan.
Outgoing.
UUP: Robin Swann
Outgoing.
SDLP: Connor Duncan.
Stood last year.
Alliance: Patricia O’Lynn
Green: Mark Bailey
Independent: Mark Digney.
Independent: Adam McBride.

Likely Turnout.
There are three scenarios.
People will be so disgusted at Stormont itself, that they just dont come out.
They are so disgusted at DUP-Sinn Féin, they will turn out.
DUP and Sinn Féin will play the bogey man card and people do turn out.

My gut feeling is that this election is a little like the 1998 Referendum on the Good Friday Agreement. Unlikely people will vote.
I am guessing at most 42,000 votes and a quota of 7,000

DUP look short of three quotas. Ex-MLA David McIlveen has declared support for Robin Swann but it is unlikely to make much of an impact. Jim Allister is safe on a quota. UUP will be short of a quota but the TUV, DUP and some Alliance transfers should be enough to bring Robin Swann in.
The Nationalist seat? Well Sinn Féin has been damaged by the Dáithí McKay “resignation” and the co-option of Philip McGuigan. One of their ex-councillors is standing as an Independent.
Sinn Féins vote will drop.
SDLP will rise…Connor Duncan is a good candidate… but the gap will not narrow sufficiently.
The fifth seat will go to Sinn Féin.

DUP 2. TUV 1. UUP 1. Sinn Féin 1.

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Assembly Election 2017: Upper Bann

Posted on February 28, 2017 by fitzjameshorse

The key difference between Assembly 2016 and Assembly 2017 is that only five MLAs will be elected from each constituncy. For at least eighteen MLAs and their staff, this election has come four years too early.
The percentage of votes required to get elected…the quota…will be higher but I am not thinking in terms of percentages. Rather I am thinking in terms of votes cast in May last year and the number of votes likely to be cast this year.
Too often …analysts with some justification …focus on the statistics of elections. Arguably this one is different. There might actually be Politics involved.

So …Upper Bann
May 2016: Quota: 6527
DUP: (2 seats) 14188
Sinn Féin (2 seats) 11373
UUP (1 seat) 9884
Others: SDLP 4335, Alliance 1424, TUV 1177, UKIP 1072, PUP 704, CISTA 672, Green 495, Labour 250, Tory 79, Independent 33.

2017 Candidates:
DUP: Carla Lockhart, Jonny Buckley.
Lockhart outgoing. Sydney Anderson stands down.
Sinn Féin: John O’Dowd, Nuala Toman.
O’Dowd is outgoing. Toman replaces Cat Seeley.
UUP: Jo Anne Dobson, Doug Beattie.
Both outgoing.
SDLP: Dolores Kelly.
Lost her seat to Sinn Féin last year.
Alliance: Tara Doyle.
Sadly we dont have Harry Hamilton, the Freddie Mercury impersonator this time.
TUV: Roy Ferguson.
Stood last year.
Green: Simon Lee.
Stood last year.
Workers Party: Colin Craig
Tory: Ian Nickels
Stood last year.

Likely Turnout.
There are three scenarios.
People will be so disgusted at Stormont itself, that they just dont come out.
They are so disgusted at DUP-Sinn Féin, they will turn out.
DUP and Sinn Féin will play the bogey man card and people do turn out.

My gut feeling is that this election is a little like the 1998 Referendum on the Good Friday Agreement. Unlikely people will vote.
I am guessing at most 48,000 votes and a quota of 8000

My presumption in all these profiles has been that the turn-out will be higher than last year. I might be totally wrong. With a quota of (say) 8000, DUP look safe for two seats but they will need and get TUV transfers.
I dont think that UUP can turn 10,000 votes into two quotas.
A Declaration of Interest. This is my constituency and I will be voting.

For a few years now, Sinn Féin have been playing fast and loose. In 2011 they told voters that Dolores Kelly (SDLP) was “safe” and they should vote SF to get three nationalist seats. On other doorsteps, they told voters that Dolores was “toast”. Likewise they built up Cat Seeley in 2015 Westminster election. She could win apparently. As it turned out she finished third (behind DUP and UUP) with less than 30% of the vote.
Seeley was elected to the Assembly easily in 2016. She had almost 1,000 more first preferences than John O’Dowd who almost lost his seat.
Well that wont happen in 2017. After years of building a profile in Upper Bann, Cat Seeley has decided that she wants to be a teacher and is replaced by Nuala Toman, a Sinn Féin staffer.
The Alliance and Green candidates, resident in East and South Belfast respectively are just going thru the motions.
The likely outcome is three unionist seats (two DUP and one UUP) and two nationalist seats.
Can SF turn less than 12,000 votes into two seats?
Can SDLP turn around 5,000 votes into one seat?

Well, my own observations is that nationalist voters think that they want two parties rather than one. Some people seem to feel a little guilty that they did not vote for Dolores. If everyone …homeless, abused, disabled, poor, Catholic, Protestant, migrant, helped by Dolores and her staff had actually voted for her last year….she would still be a MLA. It is that simple. Happy to say that a few people have volunteered the information that they are voting for her this time.
Whether it is enough is a different question.
Especially as there is a downside….there is no SDLP office in the constituency and maybe, just maybe the local Party has been wrong-footed by a snap election.

So Thursday morning at 7am my wife and I will exercise our traditional right to be the first votes for Dolores cast in Upper Bann.

DUP 2, Sinn Féin 1, UUP 1, SDLP 1.

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Assembly Election 2017: South Belfast

Posted on February 27, 2017 by fitzjameshorse

The key difference between Assembly 2016 and Assembly 2017 is that only five MLAs will be elected from each constituncy. For at least eighteen MLAs and their staff, this election has come four years too early.
The percentage of votes required to get elected…the quota…will be higher but I am not thinking in terms of percentages. Rather I am thinking in terms of votes cast in May last year and the number of votes likely to be cast this year.
Too often …analysts with some justification …focus on the statistics of elections. Arguably this one is different. There might actually be Politics involved.

So …South Belfast
May 2016: Quota: 5247
DUP (2 seats) 8081
SDLP (1 seat) 7361
Alliance (1 seat) 6061
Sinn Féin (1 seat) 5027
Green (1 seat) 3521
Others: UUP 2466, Some Kinda Labour 871, UKIP 794, TUV 495, Independent (Ruth Patterson) 475, PUP 430, Ind Unionist 351, Some Other Kinda Labour 246, Workers Party 241, Green 796, UKIP 751, TUV 644, WP 476, Tory 161.

2017 Candidates:
DUP: Emma Little Pengelly, Christopher Stalford.
Both outgoing.
SDLP: Claire Hanna, Naomh Gallagher.
Claire is outgoing.
Alliance: Paula Bradshaw, Emmet McDonough-Brown.
Bradshaw is outgoing.
Sinn Féin: Máirtín Ó Muilleoir.
Outgoing.
Green Party: Clare Bailey.
Outgoing.
UUP: Michael Henderson.
People Before Profit: Páidrigín Mervyn
Some Kinda Labour: Sean Burns.
Stood in 2016
Workers Party: Lily Kerr.
Stood in 2016
TUV: John Hiddleston.
Stood in 2016
Tory: George Jabbour.

Likely Turnout.
There are three scenarios.
People will be so disgusted at Stormont itself, that they just dont come out.
They are so disgusted at DUP-Sinn Féin, they will turn out.
DUP and Sinn Féin will play the bogey man card and people do turn out.

My gut feeling is that this election is a little like the 1998 Referendum on the Good Friday Agreement. Unlikely people will vote.
I am guessing at most 39,000 votes and a quota of 6,500

My presumption in all these profiles has been that the turn-out will be higher than last year. I might be totally wrong. With a quota of (say) 6,500, it looks difficult for the Greens to defend their seat and difficult for DUP to defend the second seat.
I can see the Greens increasing their first preference vote but RHI and BREXIT means that DUP will drop votes.
SDLP looks certain to increase their first preference total. Claire Hanna has been a very effective MLA and SDLP has been the leading pro-Europe party. On the downside, I dont think it is a balanced ticket. SDLP is a broad church…and the selection of Naomh Gallagher, one for the future, suggests a changing of the guard and those described as “progressives” are now  firmly in charge.

Even with a plethora of minor leftist candidates, SDLP will get around 8,500 first preferences and Claire will take most of them.
Alliance will advance slightly. Incumbency will help Bradshaw and her previous incarnation as UUP-Tory means she will get most of the transfers from UUP.
To some extent Máirtín Ó Muilleoir is tainted by coalition with DUP and as Minister of Finance. He will run with the fox and hunt with the hounds and it should be enough to convince the core.
Clare Bailey has extended the traditional Green agenda beyond tree hugging and knitting vegetarian muesli to advocate Abortion rights. It finds an audience in South Belfast. Again, Incumbency helps.

So….SDLP 1. DUP 1. Alliance 1. Sinn Féin 1…..and Green 1.

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Assembly Election 2017: North Belfast

Posted on February 26, 2017 by fitzjameshorse

The key difference between Assembly 2016 and Assembly 2017 is that only five MLAs will be elected from each constituncy. For at least eighteen MLAs and their staff, this election has come four years too early.
The percentage of votes required to get elected…the quota…will be higher but I am not thinking in terms of percentages. Rather I am thinking in terms of votes cast in May last year and the number of votes likely to be cast this year.
Too often …analysts with some justification …focus on the statistics of elections. Arguably this one is different. There might actually be Politics involved.

So …North Belfast
May 2016: Quota: 5225
DUP (3 seats) 12785
Sinn Féin (2 seats) 9704
SDLP (1 seat) 3866
Others: Alliance 2569, UUP 1972, PBP 1286, PUP 1238, Green 796, UKIP 751, TUV 644, WP 476, Labour 127, NI First 32, Independent (Hughes) 243, Independent (Burns) 87.

2017 Candidates:
DUP: Paula Bradley, William Humphrey, Nelson McCausland.
All outgoing.
Sinn Féin: Gerry Kelly, Caral Ní Chuilín.
Both outgoing.
SDLP: Nichola Mallon.
Outgoing.
Alliance: Nuala McAllister.
Stood last time.
UUP: Robert Foster.
People Before Profit: Fiona Ferguson.
Stood last time.
PUP: Julie-Anne Corr Johnston..
Green: Malachai O’Hara
Stood last time.
Workers Party: Gemma Weir.
Stood last time.
Independent: Adam Millar.

Likely Turnout.
There are three scenarios.
People will be so disgusted at Stormont itself, that they just dont come out.
They are so disgusted at DUP-Sinn Féin, they will turn out.
DUP and Sinn Féin will play the bogey man card and people do turn out.

My gut feeling is that this election is a little like the 1998 Referendum on the Good Friday Agreement. Unlikely people will vote.
I am guessing at most 37,500 votes and a quota of 6,250

My presumption in all these profiles has been that the turn-out will be higher than last year. I might be totally wrong. With a quota of (say) 6,250, DUP wont be confident defending three seats. Nor will Sinn Féin feel confident defending two seats. Nor for that matter will SDLP confident defending their one seat.
All have to increase their first preference totals.
While RHI etc might hit DUP, they will be comforted by UKIP and TUV not standing. UUP vote will suffer as unionists circle the wagons. PUP have a high profile candidate and a softer image.
At best I only see 14,000 votes for DUP and that is only two quotas.
Nichola Mallon is likely to poll better than last time. She has had a good year and has freshened up the SDLP image in North Belfast. Thru Cllr Paul McCusker, she can reach places where Alban Magennis could not have reached. She also has the endorsement of Raymond McCord, a unionist and father of a loyalist murder victim.
Nichola will certainly widen the gap with Alliance.
I expect Alliance to fall back from 2016.
Likewise fellow non-leftist Green Party will lose out.
I am not so sure about People Before Profit and Workers Party. They can do socialist purity but does BREXIT count against them?
Either way, I see SDLP gaining from a cluster of eliminations.

Sinn Féin….well this whole “we are not corrupt, we are just incompetent” spiel might work. If they can persuade their core vote that this time ” we will stand up to DUP” then they have to say that they have been a DUP poodle for several years.
It is “dog whistle” stuff. But if they cant break 10,500 first preferences, then they will struggle.
So I cant see more than one full quota.
So I would call four seats as it as DUP 2, SF 1 and SDLP 1.

The fifth seat.
Well on the basis that in 2016, unionists (DUP, UUP, PUP, UKIP, TUV) outvoted nationalists (SF, SDLP) by 48% to 37%….thats a headline figure.
Drilling down Alliance is avowedly neutral but their voters might lean nationalist.
Likewise Workers Party and People Before Profit spoof about their constitutional neutrality.
And the Green Party spoofs about everything.

So that gap is actually tighter than it looks. In calling the fifth seat, there is a possibility that it could go to SF.
Both DUP and SF are toxic to a lot of people.
Fifth seat….DUP.

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Assembly Election 2017: South Antrim

Posted on February 26, 2017 by fitzjameshorse

The key difference between Assembly 2016 and Assembly 2017 is that only five MLAs will be elected from each constituncy. For at least eighteen MLAs and their staff, this election has come four years too early.
The percentage of votes required to get elected…the quota…will be higher but I am not thinking in terms of percentages. Rather I am thinking in terms of votes cast in May last year and the number of votes likely to be cast this year.
Too often …analysts with some justification …focus on the statistics of elections. Arguably this one is different. There might actually be Politics involved.

So …
May 2016: Quota: 5020.
DUP (3 seats) 13,188
UUP (1 seat) 7792
Sinn Féin (1 seat) 4632
Alliance (1 seat) 3119
Others: SDLP 3366, TUV 1318, Green 589, UKIP 574, Independent 483, Tory 472.

2017 Candidates:
DUP: Paul Girvan, Trevor Clarke, Pam Cameron.
All outgoing.
UUP: Steve Aiken, Adrian Cochrane-Watson.
Aiken is outgoing.
Sinn Féin: Declan Kearney.
Outgoing.
Alliance: David Ford.
Outgoing.
SDLP: Roisin Lynch.
Stood in Westminster 2015 and Assembly 2016.
TUV: Richard Cairns.
Stood in Westminster 2015 and Assembly 2016
Green: Eleanor Bailey.
People Before Profit: Ivana Antova.
Tory: Mark Logan.
Independent: David McMaster
Stood last year.

Likely Turnout.
There are three scenarios.
People will be so disgusted at Stormont itself, that they just dont come out.
They are so disgusted at DUP-Sinn Féin, they will turn out.
DUP and Sinn Féin will play the bogey man card and people do turn out.

My gut feeling is that this election is a little like the 1998 Referendum on the Good Friday Agreement. Unlikely people will vote.
I am guessing at most 36,000 votes and a quota of 6,000.

DUP have only two safe quotas. Maybe just 12,500 votes. It does not look good for the third DUP seat.
UUP will improve to about 8,500…still short of a second quota.
There are also other unionist votes floating around…notably TUV but still not enough to put together a quota.
The PBP and Green transfers will go mostly to SDLP, Sinn Féin and. Possibly some Alliance.
So a lot depends on the the positions of SDLP, Sinn Féin and Alliance.
I expect SF to poll 4,300 first preferences (down on 2016) and SDLP to poll 3,800 (up on 2016).
The Alliance vote is curious…5,007 (2007), 4,554 (2011) and 3,119 (2016).

For the sake of a bit of controversy…..
DUP 2. UUP 1. Sinn Féin 1…….and SDLP 1. (Yes it is partly wishful thinking but Id love to see the back of David Ford )

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Assmbly Election 2017: Mid Ulster

Posted on February 25, 2017 by fitzjameshorse

The key difference between Assembly 2016 and Assembly 2017 is that only five MLAs will be elected from each constituncy. For at least eighteen MLAs and their staff, this election has come four years too early.
The percentage of votes required to get elected…the quota…will be higher but I am not thinking in terms of percentages. Rather I am thinking in terms of votes cast in May last year and the number of votes likely to be cast this year.
Too often …analysts with some justification …focus on the statistics of elections. Arguably this one is different. There might actually be Politics involved.

So …Mid Ulster
May 2016: Quota: 5822
Sinn Féin (3 seats) 19015
DUP (1 seat) 7393
SDLP (1 seat) 6209
UUP (1 seat) 4862
Others: TUV 1877, Alliance 471, Green 349, Workers Party 316, UKIP 256.

2017 Candidates:
Sinn Féin: Michelle O’Neill, Ian Milne, Linda Dillon.
All outgoing.
DUP: Keith Buchanan
Outgoing.
SDLP: Patsy McGlone.
Outgoing.
UUP: Sandra Overend
Outgoing.
TUV: Hannah Loughrin.
Stood last year
Alliance: Fay Watson
Green: Stefan Taylor
Workers Party: Hugh Scullion.
Stood last year.
Independent: Hugh McCloy.

Likely Turnout.
There are three scenarios.
People will be so disgusted at Stormont itself, that they just dont come out.
They are so disgusted at DUP-Sinn Féin, they will turn out.
DUP and Sinn Féin will play the bogey man card and people do turn out.

My gut feeling is that this election is a little like the 1998 Referendum on the Good Friday Agreement. Unlikely people will vote.
I am guessing at most 42,000 votes and a quota of 7,000.

I expect Sinn Féin to slip back to 18,500 which means two safe seats.
SDLP will hold steady. If Hugh McCloy, a hospital campaigner takes some first preference votes, Patsy McGlone can rely on his transfers plus most Green and Alliance.
DUP have enough first preference votes to get over the line. TUV voters will realise there is the potential to lose a unionist seat and wont waste their vote.
UUP have maybe 5,000 votes and Sinn Féin slightly less than that in surplus.
There looks like more extra unionist votes.

Sinn Féin 2. DUP 1. SDLP 1. UUP 1.

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Assembly Election 2017: Foyle

Posted on February 24, 2017 by fitzjameshorse

The key difference between Assembly 2016 and Assembly 2017 is that only five MLAs will be elected from each constituncy. For at least eighteen MLAs and their staff, this election has come four years too early.
The percentage of votes required to get elected…the quota…will be higher but I am not thinking in terms of percentages. Rather I am thinking in terms of votes cast in May last year and the number of votes likely to be cast this year.
Too often …analysts with some justification …focus on the statistics of elections. Arguably this one is different. There might actually be Politics involved.

So …Foyle
May 2016: Quota: 5672
SDLP (2 seats) 11900
Sinn Féin (2 seats) 11300
DUP (1 seat) 4737
People Before Profit (1 seat) 4176
Others: Independent (McCloskey) 3410, Independent (Devaney) 1173, Independent (Bradley) 900, UUP 1420, CISTA 259, Alliance 238, Green 157, Tory 36.

2017 Candidates:
SDLP: Colum Eastwood, Mark H Durkan,
Both outgoing.
Sinn Féin: Raymond McCartney, Eilish McCallion.
McCartney is outgoing. Martin McGuinness has retired.
DUP: Gary Middleton.
Outgoing.
People Before Profit: Eamonn McCann.
Outgoing.
UUP: Julia Kee.
Stood last year
Alliance: Colm Cavanagh.
Green: Shannon Downey
CISTA: John Lindsay
Tory: Stuart Canning

Likely Turnout.
There are three scenarios.
People will be so disgusted at Stormont itself, that they just dont come out.
They are so disgusted at DUP-Sinn Féin, they will turn out.
DUP and Sinn Féin will play the bogey man card and people do turn out.

My gut feeling is that this election is a little like the 1998 Referendum on the Good Friday Agreement. Unlikely people will vote.
I am guessing at most 42,000 votes and a quota of 7,000.

The Independent Anne McCloskey polled well in 2016. Her 3,000 votes will go in a ratio of 2:1 for SDLP. With Colum Eastwood performing well as SDLP Leader and the retirement of Martin McGuinness, Id expect SDLP to gain from Eamonn McCann and to increase from 11,900 to 14,000 …there are two safe quotas.
Likewise Devaney (ex DUP) stood last year and his 1,000 votes should go to Gary Middleton. He may need transfers from Julia Kee when she is eliminated but he should get elected.
I expect Sinn Féin to slip back to 10,500…only safe for one seat.
But Eamonn McCann…..sometimes I wonder that despite his constant standing in elections, he never expected or wanted to be elected in 2016. Getting elected interupted his busy schedule of being interviewed on Derry’s Walls and generally pontificating to younger people (yes I recognise a kindred spirit).
His support for BREXIT should help him get unelected in 2017.

SDLP 2. Sinn Féin 2. DUP 1.

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Assembly Election 2017: West Tyrone

Posted on February 24, 2017 by fitzjameshorse

The key difference between Assembly 2016 and Assembly 2017 is that only five MLAs will be elected from each constituncy. For at least eighteen MLAs and their staff, this election has come four years too early.
The percentage of votes required to get elected…the quota…will be higher but I am not thinking in terms of percentages. Rather I am thinking in terms of votes cast in May last year and the number of votes likely to be cast this year.
Too often …analysts with some justification …focus on the statistics of elections. Arguably this one is different. There might actually be Politics involved.

So …West Tyrone
May 2016: Quota: 5545
Sinn Féin: (3 seats) 16304
DUP (1 seat) 8534
UUP (1 seat) 4441
SDLP (1 seat) 4287
Others: Independent (Deehan) 1778, Independent (McAnespy) 828, Independent (Kelly) 661, Independent (French) 124, Independent (White) 85, Cannabis 547, Alliance 494, Green 458, Animal Welfare 224, Tory 44.

2017 Candidates:
Sinn Féin: Barry McElduff, Michaela Boyle, Declan McAleer.
All outgoing. Four candidates in 2016.
DUP: Thomas Buchanan
Outgoing. Two candidates in 2016
UUP: Alicia Clarke.
Replaces Ross Hussey who is standing down.
SDLP: Daniel McCrossan.
Outgoing.
Cannabis: Barry Brown.
Stood in 2016.
Alliance: Stephen Donnelly.
Stood last year.
Green: Ciaran McClean.
Stood last year.
Tory: Roger Lomas.
Stood last year.
TUV: Charlie Chittick.
Independent:Corey French
Independent: Susan Ann White
Independent: Sorcha McAnespy.
Independent: Roisin McMackin

Likely Turnout.
There are three scenarios.
People will be so disgusted at Stormont itself, that they just dont come out.
They are so disgusted at DUP-Sinn Féin, they will turn out.
DUP and Sinn Féin will play the bogey man card and people do turn out.

My gut feeling is that this election is a little like the 1998 Referendum on the Good Friday Agreement. Unlikely people will vote.
I am guessing at most 41,000 votes and a quota of just under 7,000.

Last year, Sinn Féin had four candidates (over 16,000 votes)as well as an ex-member, Sorcha McAnespy who took over 800 votes. I dont think it likely that McAnespy will take so many this time. Sinn Féin wont balance perfectly. At best 16,000 votes and two quotas.
SDLP (4287 votes) vote was affected by two disaffected councillors (Deehan and Kelly) who polled over 2,300 votes between them. Since then Daniel McCrossan has established himself in the Assembly. The Party in West Tyrone has had a lot of internal dissent going back more than a decade but a former MLA, Eugene McMenamin has signed Dan’s nomination papers and this time around there is no mutiny. Most of the disaffected voters will return. He will be around the quota. If required, the transfers from eliminated Greens, Alliance and Cannabis Party will be enough.

On the unionist side, Thomas Buchanan (DUP) will lose some of his votes to TUV but is likely to over the quota.
UUP?…a new candidate will be unlikely to poll as well as last year and will be short of a quota but there will be DUP transfers and some ALliance transfers which will bring Alicia Clarke closer.
It is going to be close for the final seat.

Sinn Féin 2. DUP 1. SDLP 1……UUP 1 (I will probably think SF tomorrow).

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Assembly Election 2017: East Antrim

Posted on February 23, 2017 by fitzjameshorse

The key difference between Assembly 2016 and Assembly 2017 is that only five MLAs will be elected from each constituncy. For at least eighteen MLAs and their staff, this election has come four years too early.
The percentage of votes required to get elected…the quota…will be higher but I am not thinking in terms of percentages. Rather I am thinking in terms of votes cast in May last year and the number of votes likely to be cast this year.
Too often …analysts with some justification …focus on the statistics of elections. Arguably this one is different. There might actually be Politics involved.

So ….East Antrim
May 2016: Quota: 4630
DUP (3 seats) 11701
UUP (1 seat) 6550
Alliance (1 seat ) 4747
Sinn Féin (1 seat) 2633
Others: TUV 1643, SDLP 1229, Green 693, Some Kinda Labour 551, PUP 455.

2017 Candidates:
DUP: David Hilditch, Gordon Lyons, Stephen Ross.
Hilditch and Lyons are outgoing. Ross replaces his brother.
UUP: Roy Beggs, John Stewart.
Beggs is outgoing. Stewart stood last year.
Alliance: Stewart Dickson, Danny Donnelly.
Stewart is outgoing. Donnelly stood last year.
Sinn Féin: Oliver McMullan
Outgoing.
SDLP: Margaret Anne McKillop.
Stood last year.
TUV: Ruth Wilson.
Stood last year.
UKIP: Noel Jordan.
Stood last year.
Some Kinda Labour: Conor Sheridan.
Stood last year.
Green: Dawn Patterson.
Tory: Alan Dunlop.
Independent: Ricky Best.

Likely Turnout.
There are three scenarios.
People will be so disgusted at Stormont itself, that they just dont come out.
They are so disgusted at DUP-Sinn Féin, they will turn out.
DUP and Sinn Féin will play the bogey man card and people do turn out.

My gut feeling is that this election is a little like the 1998 Referendum on the Good Friday Agreement. Unlikely people will vote.
I am guessing at most 36,000 votes and a quota of 6,000? Thats a low quota.

How the votes distribute between the blocs will be the key.
DUP…..11,000 wont be far away from two quotas. But the distribution will be around 4,000, 4,000 and 3,000.
UUP should be in excess of the quota and Beggs will be well ahead of his running mate. A similar position for Alliance.
TUV will poll a little better and UKIP a little worse than in 2016.
It looks like a case where eliminations of the also-rans…Green, Tory, Labour and Independent will add to totals and then the elimination of middle rankers….SDLP, second Alliance, UKIP and second UUP will leave around seven serious contenders.
When the dust settles, DUP will have two seats, UUP one and Alliance one.
And the fifth seat. TUV wont be far away. But ultimately it is DUP or Sinn Féin.
DUP 2. UUP 1. ALliance 1. Sinn Féin 1.

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Assembly Election 2017 Newry-Armagh

Posted on February 23, 2017 by fitzjameshorse

The key difference between Assembly 2016 and Assembly 2017 is that only five MLAs will be elected from each constituncy. For at least eighteen MLAs and their staff, this election has come four years too early.
The percentage of votes required to get elected…the quota…will be higher but I am not thinking in terms of percentages. Rather I am thinking in terms of votes cast in May last year and the number of votes likely to be cast this year.
Too often …analysts with some justification …focus on the statistics of elections. Arguably this one is different. There might actually be Politics involved.

So ….Newry-Armagh
May 2016: Quota: 6819
Sinn Féin (3 seats) 19514
SDLP (1 seats) 8700
DUP ( 1 seat) 7980
UUP (1 seat) 6745
Others: Independent (Berry) 1665, Independent (McAllister) 940, CISTA 1032, Alliance 493, Green 335, UKIP 315.

2017 Candidates:
Sinn Féin: Conor Murphy, Cathal Boylan, Meagan Fearon
All outgoing.
SDLP: Justin McNulty
Outgoing
DUP: William Irwin
Outgoing.
UUP: Danny Kennedy
Outgoing
Green: Rowan Tunnicliffe
Alliance: Jackie Coade
CISTA: Emmet Crossan.

Likely Turnout.
There are three scenarios.
People will be so disgusted at Stormont itself, that they just dont come out.
They are so disgusted at DUP-Sinn Féin, they will turn out.
DUP and Sinn Féin will play the bogey man card and people do turn out.

My gut feeling is that this election is a little like the 1998 Referendum on the Good Friday Agreement. Unlikely people will vote.
I am guessing at 48,000 votes and a quota of 8,000. Thats a very high quota. Only nine candidates and three are also-rans.

If William Irwin (DUP) retains his own vote and takes some of the Paul Berry votes and the UKIP votes, then he will exceed the quota on the first count.
Fellow unionist Danny Kennedy of UUP will be short of a quota.
On the nationalist side, Justin McNulty should exceed the quota.
For Sinn Féin, it is more problematic. Around 21,000 votes split three ways does not look promising and whether SF favour two of their people (Murphy and Fearon) more than Boylan might be a cause of disagreement when territory is marked out. If SF really try to distribute their vote equally, it does not look likely that any of the three will exceed the quota.
Danny Kennedy has already gone on record as saying that he wont be transferring to SDLP. In his case, it is academic as he wont have votes to transfer. Rather he is looking for a lifeline from Irwin. Irwin’s surplus will take him to the quota.
SDLP voters in Newry-Armagh would be crazy to transfer to Kennedy as there is clearly no reciprocation. Most of McNulty’s transferrable vote will go to the Sinn Féin candidates.

Cannabis and Green transfers will go “left” and at best Alliance transfers will be mixed.
Clearly SF will get two seats.
The fifth seat is either SF or UUP…..I think UUP is more likely.

Sinn Féin 2. SDLP 1. DUP 1. UUP 1

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