I am pleased to see that Patsy McGlone has been selected to be SDLP candidate for the Mid Ulster bye-election. Excellent choice. Excellent candidate. I hold Patsy in the highest esteem. I will hopefully be in Cookstown, Magerafelt and Coalisland a few times during the campaign.
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Meta
My impression is that SF have put a lot of workers on the ground in Mid Ulster and should retain top spot here. Martin McGuinness is very popular locally, and has done a lot to build up SF’s position in this constituency.
SF can indeed put a lot of workers on the ground and SDLP can certainly put a lot of canvassers out in the South Derry part of the constituency.
A lot of SDLP people from other constituencies will be there too. SF will squeal about it…but SF had a lot of northern canvassers in the 26 counties in 2011. You perhaps met some in Dalkey.
Few will doubt that SF will win the bye election. Paddy Powers odds will noT be generous but Martin McGuinness is not standing….and the co-option to replace MOlloy might be good as some previous co-options have been or useless as some others have been.
Regarding cooptions. According to a book I was reading as part of an assignment on northern politics, the SDLP failed to being forward new blood when Hume and Mallon retired, resutling in a party that fell to a small size.
It seems to me that SF in contrast are bringing forward new blood through the phasing out of double jobbing initiative, blooding a new generation.
In the next 15 years or so Gerry Adams is likely to stand down and I believe that the plan is that his replacement will come from south of the border – a TD such as Mary Lou McDonald – so that it is important that the new MLAs are in place for that situation who are selected to be able to liaise/coordinate with the leadership that will be in the south. The new MLAs need to be in place so that the older MLAs can then be retired or moved to Westminster.
Have the SDLP said whether they would coopt in the event that McGlone wins the seat? The electorate should really be told this.
While SF have now progressed fully on phasing out double jobbing, the SDLP still have not completed this regarding people who hold seats in the Assembly and at Westminster.
The book youve read is indeed right. Senior SDLP politicians did not prepare the ground for younger people but without a local Assembly for two or three political generations, that was always going to be impossible.
But certainly in 1998, the senior SDLP people were about 5-7 years ahead of their time.
If Francie Molloy hasnt said that if he is elected, Ian Milne or whoever will take his Assembly seat, I dont see how you expect that Patsy McGlone would announce his “successor”. It would likely be Tony Quinn, a SDLP Executive member and long time senior member.
You shouldnt run away with the idea that promoting youth always works.
Its a bit cheeky to suggest that SDLP has not progressed the double jobbing when only Party Leader Alasdair McDonnell is actually doing that and SF have had more people double jobbing for longer.
Besides McGuinness seat is actually much safer tham McDonnells.
The fact is that some of Sinn Féins co-options …I think eight people…are better than others. They have initially at least weakened their team in the hope that in a few years some will have bedded in and get re-elected.
Its logical to think that some will perform better than others….unfair to name those who are already succeeding and more unfair to name those who are performing poorly.
Rather like a GAA team that is getting old, promoting minor players means that some will do well but others will not make the grade.
Same with SF cooptions.